Furlough Estimates

[Autothrust Blue]

We definitely need time and a lot of it but it's not the same as April where the argument was the vaccine will take 4-5 years. So we will see. Dark days ahead but like Fauci said, there's finally a light at the end of the tunnel.

This is the way, I think. Since we more or less have not figured out how to convince people to adequately modify their behavior (or, in some circles, modify it whatsoever), public health gets to ride to the rescue with some pretty kick-ass science (yeah, science!). This stuff wasn’t just made in the last 9 months, though - there was a lot of work already done on SARS vaccines. Because it’s SARS, yo, and it sucks, yo, to complete the Jesse Pinkman arc.

If the influenza pandemic of the last century is any indication, this is a 2-year, 4-peak-minimum sort of thing, absent vaccines. I myself am willing to go get one as soon as it is available and clear of Phase III; the only reason I did not participate in a Phase III trial is because the FAA frowns upon it.

One thing to keep in mind, however, is that this pandemic has accelerated some already-present trends in the greater American and world economies. I do think that a lot of things do require in-person contact, but the ubiquity of video- and teleconferencing is fundamentally re-ordering the way that business is done. You could not GET a webcam between March and about May or June.

Turns out a lot of meetings could, in fact, have been e-mails.

First half of Covid, whooo weee that was rough, this second half though... Ahhhhhhhh yeah.

“This? Oh yeah, it’s gonna hurt,” as one of the audio clips from X-Com: Enemy Unknown goes.

 

[poser765]

“This? Oh yeah, it’s gonna hurt,” as one of the audio clips from X-Com: Enemy Unknown goes.

oh is it? Good thing you only have a 99% chance to hit, so you’ll probably miss!

 

[Autothrust Blue]

oh is it? Good thing you only have a 99% chance to hit, so you’ll probably miss!

*cues up the Beaglerush theme song from his XCom
Series*

 

[Richman]

I feel like the guys who are still flying are a bit more salty than normal any merit to this?

There are some guys and gals who fell into a demographic black hole, and it almost looked like they were going to get a chance to earn some back and the rug got snatched out from under them...again.

Slightly older guys got to benefit from early outs and younger guys have gotten so numb from getting slapped around they are in permanent DGAS mode.

The guys in the middle are a bit cranky.

 

[Prino]

There are some guys and gals who fell into a demographic black hole, and it almost looked like they were going to get a chance to earn some back and the rug got snatched out from under them...again.

Slightly older guys got to benefit from early outs and younger guys have gotten so numb from getting slapped around they are in permanent DGAS mode.

The guys in the middle are a bit cranky.

Is this at delta and American? Or is it across United and southwest as well ?

 

[jtrain609]

Is this at delta and American? Or is it across United and southwest as well ?

It's everywhere.

 

[Richman]

Is this at delta and American? Or is it across United and southwest as well ?

its everywhere.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

its everywhere.

Just like coronavirus.

 

[Richman]

Just like coronavirus.

Not much you can do about that. Viruses are going to virus, just like flu, measles, polio, rabies, mumps, etc.

 

[BobDDuck]

Not much you can do about that. Viruses are going to virus, just like flu, measles, polio, rabies, mumps, etc.

Nobody pilot flying today has ever had to be worried about their career path because of a polio pandemic. #thanksvaccines

Let's be somewhat realistic here.

 

[Richman]

Nobody pilot flying today has ever had to be worried about their career path because of a polio pandemic. #thanksvaccines

Let's be somewhat realistic here.

Different strokes and all....

Polio was a big deal, certainly more so if you were one of the unlukcky ones who got it and it went the full Monty. And it happened every year, year after year.

Flu has also been a big deal, certainly was in 58 & 68. Normalized for population, and the fact that the populations at the time were generally less mobile, they could have been much worse. Yet we have vaccines that are generally hit or miss.

Career paths change over time. Used to be if you were over 30, civilian and/or some other non-preferred demographic, you were SOL.

Also used to be that furloughs happened on a seasonal basis. Sometimes strikes, too.

You used to be able to go fly passengers in a single engine piston, until the day the music died.

You used to be able to fly RJs at 302.

Times change, and so must I.

You need not wonder why.

 

[ZapBrannigan]

Hired by my first regional: Age 23
Hired by my first major: Age 26
Furloughed: Age 29

Hired by my 3rd major: Age 40

Current age: 47

I did the best that I could. Another lost decade will probably mean retiring from the right seat. I hope that doesn't happen.

If it does, I entirely blame the current administration for politicizing masks, distancing and a pandemic where the equivalent of a 9/11 number of deaths occur every week.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Autothrust Blue]

If it does, I entirely blame the current administration for politicizing masks, distancing and a pandemic where the equivalent of a 9/11 number of deaths occur every week.

Yep, this. Much of public health is messaging to the public, and because they sent a message of “it’s just the flu, tee hee,” well, here we are.

I am reading a book on influenza, presently, about the last (super serious) epidemic, incidentally. The book GWB read and then went “oh poop” and started federal pandemic preparedness efforts after.

 

[jynxyjoe]

2million people over last two days traveling by air. A vaccine is inbound. And now we know what a recovery will look like after lockdown pt2.

 

[milleR]

2million people over last two days traveling by air. A vaccine is inbound. And now we know what a recovery will look like after lockdown pt2.

Ah, what?

 

[Screaming_Emu]

Hired by my first regional: Age 23
Hired by my first major: Age 26
Furloughed: Age 29

Hired by my 3rd major: Age 40

Current age: 47

I did the best that I could. Another lost decade will probably mean retiring from the right seat. I hope that doesn't happen.

If it does, I entirely blame the current administration for politicizing masks, distancing and a pandemic where the equivalent of a 9/11 number of deaths occur every week.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Dude was gifted an opportunity to step up and earn a second term. Didn’t even try.

 

[jynxyjoe]

Ah, what?
View attachment 56448

*Speaks slowly* add the last two days... What do you come up with...

 

[milleR]

*Speaks slowly* add the last two days... What do you come up with...

The same historical percentage as the last couple of months?

 

[BobDDuck]

Different strokes and all....

Polio was a big deal, certainly more so if you were one of the unlukcky ones who got it and it went the full Monty. And it happened every year, year after year.

Flu has also been a big deal, certainly was in 58 & 68. Normalized for population, and the fact that the populations at the time were generally less mobile, they could have been much worse. Yet we have vaccines that are generally hit or miss.

Career paths change over time. Used to be if you were over 30, civilian and/or some other non-preferred demographic, you were SOL.

Also used to be that furloughs happened on a seasonal basis. Sometimes strikes, too.

You used to be able to go fly passengers in a single engine piston, until the day the music died.

You used to be able to fly RJs at 302.

Times change, and so must I.

You need not wonder why.

Again... (unless I misunderstood you) you made a smartass "it's just the flu" comment in relation to how this is effecting our careers and then when I questioned that, you gave me the lyrics to a song that Don McLean could have written that had absolutely nothing to do with anything.

 

[ClearedForOption]

Hired by my first regional: Age 23
Hired by my first major: Age 26
Furloughed: Age 29

Hired by my 3rd major: Age 40

Current age: 47

I did the best that I could. Another lost decade will probably mean retiring from the right seat. I hope that doesn't happen.

If it does, I entirely blame the current administration for politicizing masks, distancing and a pandemic where the equivalent of a 9/11 number of deaths occur every week.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If you stayed at AzulJetNorte I think that you'd be at about 56-57% on the MSL. (If I remember your initial class date zone right) We all make the best decisions with the information we have at the time. (with a healthy dose of pure chance thrown in - lucky or not) Your current shop is positioned to be able to 'hold it's breath' the longest underwater. That counts for a lot when the future is still up in the air.

I've been very lucky, in that I was hired at my current shop near the beginning of a continuous hiring wave post '08 financial crisis recovery. And I didn't chase other employment having been told by old freight dogs from when I worked at SAI (ex-Eastern, Pan Am, Braniff, etc.) to not chase greener pastures in a seniority based industry. (even though it would be a transcon commute for me for at least 10 years...)

If you want to depress yourself read (or reread) Hard Landing. And look at the parallels from then till now.

The biggest lesson that I've taken away from this downturn is that no matter how much I've been able to save, it's not enough.