Furlough Estimates

ASpilot2be said:
Thank you! That's cool. Being a privately owned airline it can be tougher to get stats.
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Private or not, airlines are still required to file Form 41 with the DOT. Schedule B-1 has quarterly info. Not as pretty as a publicly traded company's 10K statement, but it gets the job done.

OST_R | BTS | Transtats

This is the TranStats homepage. TranStats provides one-stop shopping for intermodal transportation data for researchers, decision-makers, as well as the general public interested in transportation issues.
www.transtats.bts.gov
 
BobDDuck said:
Private or not, airlines are still required to file Form 41 with the DOT. Schedule B-1 has quarterly info. Not as pretty as a publicly traded company's 10K statement, but it gets the job done.

OST_R | BTS | Transtats

This is the TranStats homepage. TranStats provides one-stop shopping for intermodal transportation data for researchers, decision-makers, as well as the general public interested in transportation issues.
www.transtats.bts.gov
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Ooooh! Never seen those before. That's a fun rabbit hole. Thanks!
 
Maximillian_Jenius said:
Not sure if its true, but heard that they got a two year reprieve.
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Source? It certainly looks like via the two memos sent out yesterday (one from the CEO and the other from the MEC chairman) that things looked like they were coming to an end. That would be quite the turnaround in less than 24 hours if you heard they got a 2 year reprieve.
 
roundout said:
I wonder if losing 30mm factors in the CARES money. If it does, only losing 10mm a month is pretty phenomenal at this point.
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Unfortunately, it’s not like a 10k where people can go to jail based on false information. It’s more of a loose definition of the state of the airline. During negotiations when our CEO was making statements like Frontier has profited more in the past 10 months than the previous 10 years combined. Although quite profitable, what they reported to the DOT didn’t really back that up. But when they did the 2016 IPO document dump the picture became much more clear.
 
Ayork62493 said:
For what it’s worth, they can definitely draw down expressjet in two months. They shut down TSA within two weeks. Everything aside, I’m starting to wonder what airlines will actually exist after this. I don’t even see chapter 11 being viable for most.
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Woah, that's deep. Most airlines liquidated and gone forever is the tone now of the interwebs? Maybe in the regional space. I could see one or two LCC's but I'd imagine they'd get merged by the big 3.
 
tcco94 said:
Woah, that's deep. Most airlines liquidated and gone forever is the tone now of the interwebs? Maybe in the regional space. I could see one or two LCC's but I'd imagine they'd get merged by the big 3.
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I try and stay positive but chapter 11 means a business plan that creditors deem as viable. At the moment, airlines aren’t viable.
 
Ayork62493 said:
I try and stay positive but chapter 11 means a business plan that creditors deem as viable. At the moment, airlines aren’t viable.
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What is viable right now? 3/4 of business isn't. So that means most airlines are going bust? And this is a discussion July 2020. When do you think chp 11 filings are coming? Think what you're suggesting is a bit radical.
 
tcco94 said:
What is viable right now? 3/4 of business isn't. So that means most airlines are going bust? And this is a discussion July 2020. When do you think chp 11 filings are coming? Think what you're suggesting is a bit radical.
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How exactly do you think businesses are going to remain in business with no money coming in? I just don’t understand what you think is going to happen here.
 
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