Furlough Estimates

Autothrust Blue said:
If only there had been some way to prevent this.

I do think there's some chance of further PSP, but I also don't think that the airlines are terribly interested in being told they can't reduce force anymore.
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I should hang onto my employment at OO but at 32% in the present list I don’t know if I will remain in the left seat. It makes me sick to see this all
play out and despite what my wife tells me to do, I can’t simply ignore the present and future state of the industry. OO earnings call should be somewhat telling later today. It has been radio silence for the most part since the beginning.
 
Ayork62493 said:
I should hang onto my employment at OO but at 32% in the present list I don’t know if I will remain in the left seat. It makes me sick to see this all
play out and despite what my wife tells me to do, I can’t simply ignore the present and future state of the industry. OO earnings call should be somewhat telling later today. It has been radio silence for the most part since the beginning.
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My guess is that they're going to rail you guys, hard, with the assistance and indeed even encouragement, of SAPA.

Sorry in advance.
 
Screaming_Emu said:
The only crabs bigger in Florida are the ones you don’t want to bring home.

That said, I remember growing up in MD and we could take some chicken necks, string, a net, and cooler down to the docks and come home with more than we can eat. Not really the case anymore.
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We grew up on a cottage where the Potomac meets the Chesapeake, (google Lewisetta) We used to catch tons of crab off the dock and with pots set up. I haven't caught crabs up there in years. Did the numbers dwindle drastically? From what I remember, and what I see from friends who still scour the northern waters of MD they were seriously never routinely the size we get down here in the Tarpon/Port Richy waters. But they all taste good!
 
milleR said:
Ooph ...

United could furlough a third of its pilots amid worsening coronavirus outlook
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They don’t see passenger numbers climbing above 50% until there is a vaccine and it is widely distributed. Honestly based on many projections that won’t be until fall 2021. So which airlines can survive with less than 50% of passengers for the next 12-18 months?

I think it’s becoming clear that without further government intervention the airline industry may in fact be facing at least a partial collapse.
 
chrisreedrules said:
They don’t see passenger numbers climbing above 50% until there is a vaccine and it is widely distributed. Honestly based on many projections that won’t be until fall 2021. So which airlines can survive with less than 50% of passengers for the next 12-18 months?

I think it’s becoming clear that without further government intervention the airline industry may in fact be facing at least a partial collapse.
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Probably none of them. Doesn’t matter how many employees are furloughed. I guess if one is going to start an airline, now may not be such a terrible time.
 
Autothrust Blue said:
Unless and until travel demand recovers, which won't happen until the virus situation is fixed, at the risk of repeating myself endlessly, I'd believe it's mostly an accurate number. And then there's what GDP did in the last quarter.
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2.5 percent loss per month is a thing. It really is.

I’m apparently not getting furloughed. Yet I’m still putting my furlough plan into action.

I could see AS management turning around and letting go 100-400 pilots before the end of the year. That’s in addition to the 30% that are on extended leaves.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
jtrain609 said:
Y'all know this is going to drive more M&A, right?

If you think this is bad, wait until you see what happens your seniority when you get merged while on furlough.
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I want to be one of the guys who I dragged around on MY jump seat in Minneapolis who got turned down by Dildo and was like “ah work here involuntarily.”
 
Ayork62493 said:
Why don’t you believe it? CSA, reservations, front line employees can all be spooled up very quickly if they need to be. It’s a job that can be done at entry level, even if it’s not done well. It’s the sad reality. Pilots, not so much.
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I just don’t think United is going to be 50% smaller on oct.1.
 
jtrain609 said:
Y'all know this is going to drive more M&A, right?
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The Alaska airlines subforum on APC has so much more kindling for their dumpster fires of merger threads now. So many line pilots have all the financials figured out already.

Oh yeah, menage-a-AA/Alaska/jetBlue. Heard it on the jumpseat of a Super 80 in 2012 when AA was in bankruptcy protection. The Paperwork was already drawn up, ready to be signed. Plus there's a current thread on it at APC. I guess you could say things are getting pretty serious.
 
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