Furlough Estimates

zmiller4 said:
Our neighborhood outside of Houston (which is flush with UAL pilots) has had multiple homes listed for lease or for sale in the last few months....and none have been on the market for more than a month.

It’s strange to see the same folks who call anyone realizing the seriousness of the pandemic “doomers” saying that this will be a decade-long depression without any real evidence.
Click to expand...
You in Terminal W? Or K?
 
AA34 said:
Replace Austin for Denver and that’s my story, exactly.
Click to expand...
That’s a shame, although I’m sure my “I love Austin!” attitude as an outsider is a part of the problem. It’s got enough of the Texas that I like but still isn’t out of place for a stinkin’ liberal pinko like me :P
 
zmiller4 said:
Our neighborhood outside of Houston (which is flush with UAL pilots) has had multiple homes listed for lease or for sale in the last few months....and none have been on the market for more than a month.

It’s strange to see the same folks who call anyone realizing the seriousness of the pandemic “doomers” saying that this will be a decade-long depression without any real evidence.
Click to expand...

Purely anecdotal, so take this with a grain of salt, but down in the Loop there appears to be a fair amount available for lease or sale. That said, it's still pretty pricey and there's been no material drop in asking prices (yet), so maybe supply is tighter than I think.

There are, however, an alarming number of businesses that have permanently closed. Sad to drive down some of the main roads and see the boarded up stores, restaurants, etc.
 
zmiller4 said:
Our neighborhood outside of Houston (which is flush with UAL pilots) has had multiple homes listed for lease or for sale in the last few months....and none have been on the market for more than a month.

It’s strange to see the same folks who call anyone realizing the seriousness of the pandemic “doomers” saying that this will be a decade-long depression without any real evidence.
Click to expand...

Hopefully this isn't a decade-long depression but unfortunately all signs are pointing to one. According to this, during the Great Depression unemployment didn't peak until 1933, even though the Depression began in 1929.

1594955236141.png


This Depression only started a few months ago, and unemployment is already higher than it was in 1930! It looks like it's going to get ugly. And It looks like the stimulus from the CARES Act is the string holding up the economy from total collapse. In April, average household incomes actually increased even though there were massive job losses. This was most likely because of the stimulus but that ends at the end of July and no further stimulus packages have been passed or are likely to pass. The economy is about to get a lot worse when the stimulus ends. The real estate market may still be hot, but keep in mind mostly low income people have lost their jobs so far, so people who can afford to buy houses in the first place probably haven't been as affected yet. But that will change soon as poverty trickles up, since theirs going to be less and less consumer spending from those who are out of work. There is very little hope for the future at this point.
 
mastermags said:
Cities or towns?
Click to expand...
Cities. SLC comes to mind as a wildly better place to live then Denver and is actually near mountains instead of in Kansas and a 2 hour drive. Bozeman, Missoula, Boise(also a bit of a drive). If we include cities that are as far from the mountains as Denver it's like every single city west of Denver. • Portland and Seattle and LA are as much of a mountain town as Denver.
 
Last edited:
L-16B said:
Haha first time I heard a United guy call it terminal W it cracked me up. My Houston properties are in the heights. I was an inner looper.
Click to expand...

What does "Terminal W" or "Terminal K" refer to? Relatively new inner looper here, Heights seems like a great area.
 
GypsyPilot said:
There's a lot of Kool aid drinking that goes on in Denver. I grew up there, and it was absolutely awesome in the 80s/90s. Not crowded, people were nice, and things were still affordable.

Now the Front Range (aka the Denver area) is extremely busy with people that have moved in relatively recently. Some are cool, a lot of them are not. Trails and wilderness areas are getting trashed, people are just really rude and douchey, and honestly it seems like people are there mostly to try and outdo each other with Instagram and strava. You will easily sit in traffic for a few hours even on a random weekday during ski season for a trip to the mountains. It just sucks, and it made me sick to see it all unfold.

My wife and I sold everything a couple years ago and moved away permanently. I miss seeing my lifelong friends and family, but I just couldn't take it anymore. There are MUCH better places to live for the true mountain experience, that are also cheaper and not full of wannabe outside magazine Instagramers.
Click to expand...
I too am punching out of Denver but for unforeseen circumstances. Between the loss of my mother-in-law and the ability to take several years off and not have to commute my wife and I are moving back to Montana to be closer to her family.

Denver has changed quite a bit even since I lived here previously in 07-10, on paper it is great for our family. It is half way between my wife’s family in MT and mine in KC and a a crew base, but the outrageous cost of property, horrendous traffic, and crowds everywhere has us longing for a bit slower pace of life.

Maybe I’ll come back if I decide I can’t handle the commute anymore, I always told myself I wouldn’t do that, but for now it works for us to leave.
 
For those who have been furloughed before, is it fairly easy to get back into when you haven’t flown for a year or two? I most likely won’t be working a flying job while this clown show runs it’s course and I’m curious what you guys recommend as far as keeping skills up/what to do when the call to come back comes.
 
Yakob said:
Hopefully this isn't a decade-long depression but unfortunately all signs are pointing to one. According to this, during the Great Depression unemployment didn't peak until 1933, even though the Depression began in 1929.

View attachment 54518

This Depression only started a few months ago, and unemployment is already higher than it was in 1930! It looks like it's going to get ugly. And It looks like the stimulus from the CARES Act is the string holding up the economy from total collapse. In April, average household incomes actually increased even though there were massive job losses. This was most likely because of the stimulus but that ends at the end of July and no further stimulus packages have been passed or are likely to pass. The economy is about to get a lot worse when the stimulus ends. The real estate market may still be hot, but keep in mind mostly low income people have lost their jobs so far, so people who can afford to buy houses in the first place probably haven't been as affected yet. But that will change soon as poverty trickles up, since theirs going to be less and less consumer spending from those who are out of work. There is very little hope for the future at this point.
Click to expand...
Tldr new deal
 
TWP said:
For those who have been furloughed before, is it fairly easy to get back into when you haven’t flown for a year or two? I most likely won’t be working a flying job while this clown show runs it’s course and I’m curious what you guys recommend as far as keeping skills up/what to do when the call to come back comes.
Click to expand...

After 9/11 I went to one of Kit Darby's snake oil shows in LA. I managed to stop him in the hallway and ask what recommendations he had. His answer was, "Stay current. And I don't mean go bounce around in the pattern in a 172 every 3 months. Find a job flying a transport category airplane and stay current."

Admittedly this was WAY easier after 9/11 because as the majors collapsed, the regionals exploded. I managed to get job offers by several regionals, plus the "Jets 4 Jobs" offers post 9/11. So I just picked one and went with it until I just couldn't take flying for a regional anymore.

Today, I'm not sure that will be possible - at least until the passengers start coming back and the airline try to right-size equipment with demand. Even then, major airline pilots have learned not to play loose and easy with scope anymore as they screwed themselves out of a job last time.

But Kit's advice still has merit. Keep flying, even if you have to do it part time. You could do a little flight instructing, volunteer to fly rescue dogs or patients who need to get to hospitals. Give rides for Big Brother/Big Sister type programs. Yes, most of this would be self funded, but the idea is to remain current and have an experience that you can talk about in future interviews.

Don't get handcuffed to the airline that furloughed you. If a better opportunity comes along, jump on it! Waiting for a recall might result in you being in a far worse position than you would have been otherwise. Case in point, look at the furloughees who went to AirTran post 9/11. They're all SWA Captains now, whereas those who went back to the legacies that furloughed them might be facing yet another furlough. Sometimes you just gotta roll the dice and hope you make the right decision.
 
TWP said:
For those who have been furloughed before, is it fairly easy to get back into when you haven’t flown for a year or two? I most likely won’t be working a flying job while this clown show runs it’s course and I’m curious what you guys recommend as far as keeping skills up/what to do when the call to come back comes.
Click to expand...

I didn't fly for three years when I was on full-time union leave. It really is just like riding a bike. After that first day of OE, it feels like you never left.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top