Furlough Estimates

drunkenbeagle said:
They realize - they've set aside a billions for the losses, and will probably be adding more. Banks are smart enough to package up and sell the worst of loans though, so there's a good chance you own the risk indirectly somehow.

For what it's worth, debt is still trading at a pretty good discount to stocks. Only thing I own now.
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Dumb question. How are you investing in that?
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
There won’t be a need the next day. As I’ve been saying since March, this is a 10 year problem. Nobody wanted to listen...then the WARN notices hit.
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I think I get what you’re saying long-term/big-picture, but couldn’t you end up with a wide-body doing a shuttle run because that’s all crew scheduling could staff?
 
ShortField said:
My thoughts as well. This is round one. Round two starts this winter/early spring when it really becomes apparent that nobody is planning on traveling next summer.
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Unfortunately you're probably right, I don't see demand returning for at least a few years. It's going to get ugly, more so than most are willing to admit. I could see most majors furloughing the majority of their staff and many more regionals will be meeting the same fate as TSA and Compass.

BEEF SUPREME said:
However, now I wonder how long people will be buying bicycles.


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If the Depression gets bad enough and a lot of cars are repossessed, I wonder if you could enjoy more business from people who can no longer afford to own a car?
 
The kind of bikes people ride to work are not the kind of bikes I sell.

I sell bikes to people that make a lot of money and think they “shred” on the downhills.


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deadstick said:
I think I get what you’re saying long-term/big-picture, but couldn’t you end up with a wide-body doing a shuttle run because that’s all crew scheduling could staff?
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Perhaps I’m just not understanding your question, but I don’t see how this would follow from mass furloughs ans displacement. There will just be a lot fewer of all fleet categories flying.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Perhaps I’m just not understanding your question, but I don’t see how this would follow from mass furloughs ans displacement. There will just be a lot fewer of all fleet categories flying.
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The bottom 2500 probably aren’t CAs, right? I asked earlier if any CAs were getting right seat qual’d during recurrent, and it didn’t sound like it. Besides, what’s the likelihood that the jr CA who gets displaced stays on the same equipment? From the folks I’ve met, the lifer FO’s are on the wide bodies. So it seemed like the wide-body staffing (although jr FOs can get assigned there) would have fewer disruptions because it’ll take time to get those displaced, but still employed, pilots retrained.
 
deadstick said:
The bottom 2500 probably aren’t CAs, right? I asked earlier if any CAs were getting right seat qual’d during recurrent, and it didn’t sound like it. Besides, what’s the likelihood that the jr CA who gets displaced stays on the same equipment? From the folks I’ve met, the lifer FO’s are on the wide bodies. So it seemed like the wide-body staffing (although jr FOs can get assigned there) would have fewer disruptions because it’ll take time to get those displaced, but still employed, pilots retrained.
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There will be mass displacements and equipment reshufflings, just as there was after 9/11. None of this is new.
 
I, personally, would hate to run a company dependent on people paying rent. I've heard that sector won't come back for a least 20 years.

Source: i know a lot of industry insiders and have a big brain.
 
deadstick said:
The bottom 2500 probably aren’t CAs, right? I asked earlier if any CAs were getting right seat qual’d during recurrent, and it didn’t sound like it. Besides, what’s the likelihood that the jr CA who gets displaced stays on the same equipment? From the folks I’ve met, the lifer FO’s are on the wide bodies. So it seemed like the wide-body staffing (although jr FOs can get assigned there) would have fewer disruptions because it’ll take time to get those displaced, but still employed, pilots retrained.
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The displacement process started back in June for some of the legacies. Training has already started for narrowbody fleets
 
AA's warn notices by workgroup:
warning.JPG
 
Dexter said:
I, personally, would hate to run a company dependent on people paying rent. I've heard that sector won't come back for a least 20 years.

Source: i know a lot of industry insiders and have a big brain.
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32% of U.S. Households missed their housing payment this month. And at the end of the month the stimulus provisions from the CARES Act expire. There's about to be a flood of foreclosures and evictions and as bad as the economy is now it's going to get much worse over the next few months. I wouldn't be surprised if a quarter of the U.S. population is destitute by the end of the year.

drunkenbeagle said:
People have to live somewhere.
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For many that somewhere will soon be a homeless shelter or encampment, or maybe their car if they're lucky.
 
austinrc said:
These kids picked a bad year to go to ERAU...

news.erau.edu

Embry-Riddle Welcomes Largest Incoming Classes in University History

news.erau.edu news.erau.edu
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It's a bad time to be at the bottom of the list.

Starting out a 4 year path to getting a CFI. Could be excellent timing. If one started out in 2008-2010, they could have timed a trip to the majors well enough to avoid the first round of furloughs that goes back to a 2016 hire at United/Delta and 2017 at American.

Things were looking really bleak in 2008-2010. I lived through that mess scrapping my way around 5 years at a 135 with a layoff in 2010 and 3 years at another. It was not pretty. Yet someone getting their ratings at the same time may avoid furloughs entirely if they got lucky.

That old guy at Gnoss field haunts me. I can still hear him say "timing is everything".
 
Dexter said:
I, personally, would hate to run a company dependent on people paying rent. I've heard that sector won't come back for a least 20 years.

Source: i know a lot of industry insiders and have a big brain.
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You could be right. So far we’re doing great, but with the Great Depression that’s just getting started, I certainly don’t feel safe.

Yakob said:
32% of U.S. Households missed their housing payment this month.
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All of us in the industry can’t figure out where these numbers are coming from. We can’t seem to find anyone, either in single or multifamily, who is experiencing this. I’m thinking it’s media BS.
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
All of us in the industry can’t figure out where these numbers are coming from. We can’t seem to find anyone, either in single or multifamily, who is experiencing this. I’m thinking it’s media BS.
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Interesting, I wonder if it could be that proportionally more homeowners missed their mortgage payments, and relatively few of the missed payments were rent. That might make sense since supposedly it's easier to get evicted that foreclosed.
 
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