DOJ sues to prevent LCC/AMR link up

[kellwolf]

Well, AA and US Airways will. Our management has said a couple of times that since the merger wasn't final by the cutoff date, then it's not likely they'll be using those rates to determine our raises. Bottom line, I think we're still going to be behind the peer set average after all is said and done. I hope I'm pleasantly surprised, but I'm not optimistic about it.

 

[hook_dupin]

Looks that way, I think we'll know if a few days. I just wonder what made the doj retreat from their hard line stance of not settling easy.

This could all go south as well but seeing as how both airlines stock have risen by as much as 25% in a few hours, I think wall street has already decided.

Wish I would have bought about a thousand shares of AA stock a year ago.

I think the DOJ will want to settle, as they'd get eaten alive in court. I bet on it and bought AAMRQ a day after then announcement. We'll see.

I bought at $2.72.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Thoughts on this @skyw82 and @Firebird2XC ?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013...nes-usairways-antitrust-idUSBRE9A30QS20131104

Looks like the right wheels are being greased and the merger is going to happen...

You could see it that way, but not only that way. The DOJ might just be building its case. It let the other mergers go by, so blocking this one might appear biased if it seems to be a hardliner against it 'just because'. By offering a settlement offer, they're establishing grounds by which they find the merger to be anti-competitive. It could all just be legal strategy. They can't really build an anti-trust case on consumer butt-hurt over maybe-someday fare increase speculation.

Not to mention- since when did AMR take somebody's first offer on anything? The APA contract 'negotiations' went on for nearly a decade until the company went to court to put a gun to their head. Why would neo-AA give up a market like DCA? Having a stranglehold on a key city like that is any airline's dream. With SWA about to cut loose right here in their own backyard, I'm thinking AA won't accept the DCA pullout settlement. IIRC correctly, none of the other Legacy carrier mergers required massive market withdrawal. I'd wager AA will file a matter of bias on that issue alone.

In the end, it might all go through. My opinion that Horton wants to scuttle it through back-channel manipulation still stands. Whether or not he'll be successful ultimately remains to be seen.

 

[BobDDuck]

I'm thinking AA won't accept the DCA pullout settlement.

Logic fail...

No merger AA has 17%. With a merger, even with divestitures, they have >50%.

 

[Kingairer]

My prediction is merger will happen, with DCA and LGA slots, CLT-LAX gates, and Firebird talking about his flowthrough.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Logic fail...

No merger AA has 17%. With a merger, even with divestitures, they have >50%.

... which means post-merger they'd go from an also-ran to running the joint. How is that logic fail. More like reading comprehension fail?

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

... which means post-merger they'd go from an also-ran to running the joint. How is that logic fail. More like reading comprehension fail?

I think his point was that the DOJ won't let that happen. The next airline down (Delta) would only have ~13%. (By the way, AA is not an also-ran at DCA. It is number 3 behind US Airways and Delta according to Wikipedia, with 12.71%.)

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Reagan_Washington_National_Airport

 

[Firebird2XC]

I think his point was that the DOJ won't let that happen. The next airline down (Delta) would only have ~13%. (By the way, AA is not an also-ran at DCA. It is number 3 behind US Airways and Delta according to Wikipedia, with 12.71%.)

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Reagan_Washington_National_Airport

Now you're just splitting hairs. My points is the DOJ thinks it won't let that happen, while AA knows what it stands to gain there, and won't just roll over and give it up. I see this being drug out in court for a while.

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

Now you're just splitting hairs. My points is the DOJ thinks it won't let that happen, while AA knows what it stands to gain there, and won't just roll over and give it up. I see this being drug out in court for a while.

We will see, but I can't imagine anyone rolling over and allowing one airline to have such a commanding lead in DCA. Every other airline at DCA would file lawsuits if the percentages rank as 50%, 13%, 7%, etc...

 

[learhawkerbe400]

We will see, but I can't imagine anyone rolling over and allowing one airline to have such a commanding lead in DCA. Every other airline at DCA would file lawsuits if the percentages rank as 50%, 13%, 7%, etc...

Where are the lawsuits now since usair has something like 55% of the slots?

 

[meyers9163]

Where are the lawsuits now since usair has something like 55% of the slots?

Exactly. People continue to fail to understand DCA is basically a hub city. OAJ FAY SAV MYR TYS BGR CAE DAY CAK CHA and MANY more would never get serviced by any other carriers. You think the DOJ doesn't know this? They know if US Airways percentage isn't maintained they will be the reason these cities lose frequency or ALL service to DCA.

Also gates in CLT? US already uses all the gates. There's nothing stopping CLT from building a new terminal to add gates. There's plenty of property to do such. Also LAX? So then DAL then dominates LAX?

I could see some slots in DCA but really don't see much more else where. I think it'd be more fitting if the DOJ mandates SWA or B6 must continue service to a FAY etc if they gain a slot from this merger. The cities shouldn't lose out because of SWA or B6 greed.

 

[ERfly]

Exactly. People continue to fail to understand DCA is basically a hub city. OAJ FAY SAV MYR TYS BGR CAE DAY CAK CHA and MANY more would never get serviced by any other carriers. You think the DOJ doesn't know this? They know if US Airways percentage isn't maintained they will be the reason these cities lose frequency or ALL service to DCA.

Also gates in CLT? US already uses all the gates. There's nothing stopping CLT from building a new terminal to add gates. There's plenty of property to do such. Also LAX? So then DAL then dominates LAX?

I could see some slots in DCA but really don't see much more else where. I think it'd be more fitting if the DOJ mandates SWA or B6 must continue service to a FAY etc if they gain a slot from this merger. The cities shouldn't lose out because of SWA or B6 greed.

Are you kidding? ALL of the country will benefit with 15 more flights from Washington to Orlando!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

Where are the lawsuits now since usair has something like 55% of the slots?

Apparently not true, per the link I copied in my above post. Well, at least passenger wise. I don't have the data for the slots themselves.

In 2011, Reagan National Airport handled 18,823,094 passengers.[5] US Airways has the largest share of traffic at the airport, accounting for 19.97% as of June 2012. Delta Air Lines, the second largest, accounts for 13.00% of traffic, with American Airlines in third at 12.71%.[41]

 

[CamYZ125]

I thought this was an interesting article:
http://www.aspireaviation.com/2013/11/08/american-us-airways-merger-potential-settlement/

Outlining what this aviation analyst thinks could be a viable settlement option.

 

[BobDDuck]

In 2011, Reagan National Airport handled 18,823,094 passengers.[5] US Airways has the largest share of traffic at the airport, accounting for 19.97% as of June 2012. Delta Air Lines, the second largest, accounts for 13.00% of traffic, with American Airlines in third at 12.71%.[41]

Delta (and the others) are flying big planes to a few big cities out of there. Airways is flying little planes to lots of little cities out of there.

 

[meyers9163]

Apparently not true, per the link I copied in my above post. Well, at least passenger wise. I don't have the data for the slots themselves.

In 2011, Reagan National Airport handled 18,823,094 passengers.[5] US Airways has the largest share of traffic at the airport, accounting for 19.97% as of June 2012. Delta Air Lines, the second largest, accounts for 13.00% of traffic, with American Airlines in third at 12.71%.[41]

You realize most of US Airways slots are for RJs? There's no gate space there to gain by others. You quote things but it seems you lack an understanding of what AA and US would do with DCA. Current cities would keep service. If they lose SLOTS those cities WILL lose service. It's pretty simple.

Because US Airways has 50%+ they can give people access to DCA non stop from cities no other carriers dream to because of an ability to then connect from DCA. No one else can or would do such and thus the real issue if any slots are lost to get a deal. Cities lose because of cry babies like SWA and JetBlue thinking they deserve something that someone else owns.

I understand you work for B6 but lets look at recent history. B6 gains slots because of a DOT mandates with DAL and US Airways. Where does B6 add service? Oh yeah all overlapping to TPA MCO FLL BOS etc...... Yeah I seem to remember GRR and others losing DCA service at the time which will occur again if B6 or SWA gets more.

 

[ComplexHiAv8r]

You realize most of US Airways slots are for RJs? There's no gate space there to gain by others. You quote things but it seems you lack an understanding of what AA and US would do with DCA. Current cities would keep service. If they lose SLOTS those cities WILL lose service. It's pretty simple. Because US Airways has 50%+ they can give people access to DCA non stop from cities no other carriers dream to because of an ability to then connect from DCA. No one else can or would do such and thus the real issue if any slots are lost to get a deal. Cities lose because of cry babies like SWA and JetBlue thinking they deserve something that someone else owns. I understand you work for B6 but lets look at recent history. B6 gains slots because of a DOT mandates with DAL and US Airways. Where does B6 add service? Oh yeah all overlapping to TPA MCO FLL BOS etc...... Yeah I seem to remember GRR and others losing DCA service at the time which will occur again if B6 or SWA gets more.

Not sure on that. If PSA lost a slot costing CAK service. UA (RJ) might pick it up. They did IAD for awhile.

 

[meyers9163]

Not sure on that. If PSA lost a slot costing CAK service. UA (RJ) might pick it up. They did IAD for awhile.

The 50 seats once a day most days aren't even full. I'm willing to bet CAK is serviced partly to get an AC to PSA mx......

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

You realize most of US Airways slots are for RJs? There's no gate space there to gain by others. You quote things but it seems you lack an understanding of what AA and US would do with DCA. Current cities would keep service. If they lose SLOTS those cities WILL lose service. It's pretty simple.

Because US Airways has 50%+ they can give people access to DCA non stop from cities no other carriers dream to because of an ability to then connect from DCA. No one else can or would do such and thus the real issue if any slots are lost to get a deal. Cities lose because of cry babies like SWA and JetBlue thinking they deserve something that someone else owns.

I understand you work for B6 but lets look at recent history. B6 gains slots because of a DOT mandates with DAL and US Airways. Where does B6 add service? Oh yeah all overlapping to TPA MCO FLL BOS etc...... Yeah I seem to remember GRR and others losing DCA service at the time which will occur again if B6 or SWA gets more.

I wouldn't say the JetBlue or Southwest are cry babies. They (rightfully) understand it will be hard to compete with a carrier monopolizing the slots. The purpose of the DOJ in this scenario is to prevent a monopoly.

JetBlue flies routes they can make money on. They will add a route if it is profitable.

 

[BobDDuck]

JetBlue flies routes they can make money on. They will add a route if it is profitable.

Can you imagine how many small cities would lose service if the legacy carriers only flew routes that were profitable?