So, a big realization for me when I got sick: "aviation will be fine without me."
These companies always modify their operational tempo and pace as things get dicey. They're fine when the experienced guys move on - they don't make as much money, the reliability of service goes down, and occasionally terrible pilots make it through training and crash, but usually, things are fine. There are so many companies that are just reg-busting unsafe dumpster fires, and as the old timers who made it work retire the net result is actually "better" in the long run, because they're physically
unable to push as hard. At least, that's what I think. I don't know - I could be (and am willing to be) wrong on this.
Still, I like graphs a lot, so, if we draw some graphs here:
A preliminary look at fixed wing medevac lets me make this graph:
View attachment 76175
it's not exactly "super scientific" or whatever, but this is all the fixed wing accidents that pinged the key word "air ambulance." This is a little misleading though, because when I actually look at the raw data, I see a 172 flight school accident which (for whatever reason) lit up "air ambulance."
If I just filter the NSTB database by 135 operations, and see
all the accidents under 135, I think things are actually pretty promising:
View attachment 76176
And, given we both live up here, I'm kind of encouraged by this chart as well:
View attachment 76177
Obviously, helicopters are a different ballgame, but... if I just look at helicopter accidents under 135:
View attachment 76178
WILD CONJECTURE FOLLOWS:
I'm not an economist - but I think 2008 paradoxically played a big role in reducing accidents in 135. I imagine when companies are going under, it's harder to afford your helicopter charter, but in Alaska the fixed wing 135s didn't see a lot of actual change (the mail still has to fly) so the accident rate stayed higher - but that's entirely conjecture on my part.
Finally, it's also worth noting that the accident rate has actually been higher in Alaska when
I personally lived and flew there, then appears to level out after I got out of the industry. I'd like to think that I was so ridiculously bushy and rough around the edges that I single-handedly made it less safe to fly up here. Now that I'm out, you guys are welcome.