Alaska Hawaiian Merger Serious Version

BEEF SUPREME said:
13 year upgrades. Deal with it.
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Most people hired after 2025 will probably have a decade-plus upgrade, industry-wide.

There have been such a large mass of young pilots hired that as Gen-X starts to retire are going to move up and basically block upward movement for those beneath them for years because they haven’t approached retirement age yet.

The age of the one year upgrade are coming to a close because we have a sort of age… ehhh, “constipation event” coming up that when you look at the actuarial tables, is pretty obvious.

It’s going to wreak havoc on hat-thrown-on-hotel-bed “A day in the life” Instagrammers, but the numbers don’t lie.
 
derg said:
Most people hired after 2025 will probably have a decade-plus upgrade, industry-wide.

There have been such a large mass of young pilots hired that as Gen-X starts to retire are going to move up and basically block upward movement for those beneath them for years because they haven’t approached retirement age yet.

The age of the one year upgrade are coming to a close because we have a sort of age… ehhh, “constipation event” coming up that when you look at the actuarial tables, is pretty obvious.

It’s going to wreak havoc on hat-thrown-on-hotel-bed “A day in the life” Instagrammers, but the numbers don’t lie.
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Don't forget to like and subscribe!!

 
I keep telling my friends to “hurry the F up” but they don’t hear me tho! :)
 
Not to mention, the snapshot is probably already done. Either merger announcement date or merger close date, both of which passed. So not downgrading one self to want a better standing in the SLI (IMO) isn’t a valid reason.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
The junior captains such as myself who got in before the lock were either incredibly lucky or stupid depending on how one looks at it. From now on 1200 or better seniority to upgrade. The cookie got taken away long enough for the senior FOs to realize upgrade wont happen whenever they like. Pretty sure 1200 is 10 years plus.

Also don't forget we are shrinking on the 737 side. Plus very high likelihood of fenced off widebodies. This trend will only continue. Anyone stuck flying a 737 has only BA to look to for hope. Peak production is 18 months off at best. By June of 2025 we will have finished retiring 12 900 classics.

The trend is not the junior pilots friend. Upgrades are a decade from hire date at this point and it will get worse until the JCBA is complete and fences expire.
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Are you really trying to project future upgrades based on 3 pilots? This is why we give you such a hard time man. None of us knows what upgrades will look like in the future but what most of us know is that this bid literally tells us nothing about that subject. You complain about being called captain chicken little but literally every post is a worst-case scenario ie the sky is falling.
 
word302 said:
Are you really trying to project future upgrades based on 3 pilots? This is why we give you such a hard time man. None of us knows what upgrades will look like in the future but what most of us know is that this bid literally tells us nothing about that subject. You complain about being called captain chicken little but literally every post is a worst-case scenario ie the sky is falling.
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Don’t listen to me. Listen to someone much, much smarter than I. He’s saying decade long upgrades across the entire industry.

We just have to add on an SLI with 2 overstaffed airlines.

Oh and 1 less tail. RIP 614. 🪦
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
Don’t listen to me. Listen to someone much, much smarter than I. He’s saying decade long upgrades across the entire industry.

We just have to add on an SLI with 2 overstaffed airlines.

Oh and 1 less tail. RIP 614. 🪦
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Read what he wrote again, but maybe a little slower. Most importantly again, none of us really knows, especially at our airline. Funny that Hawaiian is so overstaffed that they’re starting classes again next month.
 
word302 said:
Read what he wrote again, but maybe a little slower. Most importantly again, none of us really knows, especially at our airline. Funny that Hawaiian is so overstaffed that they’re starting classes again next month.
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I think we dodged a bullet really. We are in the middle of the winners curse phase. But the airlines can’t irresponsibly expand. It will likely prevent another post 911 collapse in the future.
 
AA34 said:
Care to elaborate?
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Looking at the big 3 retirement numbers from 2025-2035. These are from APC, so not totally accurate, but probably close:

Delta: 5200
United: 6400
American: 6955

Average annual retirements of 470, 581, 632, respectively. Decade long upgrades across the industry won't happen unless there's another black swan, as I believe all 3 have plans to grow their fleet.
derg said:
Not my words, I’m just reporting on what I was told by someone involved in forecasting. I mean, if you’re hired in the next couple years you’re good, but the industry is starting the re-rationalize.
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Sure, things won't be as wild as they have been since covid, but I think decade long upgrades is a bit extreme.
 
CoffeeIcePapers said:
Looking at the big 3 retirement numbers from 2025-2035. These are from APC, so not totally accurate, but probably close:

Delta: 5200
United: 6400
American: 6955

Average annual retirements of 470, 581, 632, respectively. Decade long upgrades across the industry won't happen unless there's another black swan, as I believe all 3 have plans to grow their fleet.

Sure, things won't be as wild as they have been since covid, but I think decade long upgrades is a bit extreme.
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It doesn’t account for numbers hired from after COVID forward through hiring projections through 2026 and the lower-than-previously-average age of that block.

Yes, there has been a lot of churn in the business, but when you’re hiring loads of sub-30 year olds, the people that are paid money to look at the 1 the 5 the 10 the 15 year+ plans are predicting a log jam and a normalization of upgrade times, even with respect to retirements, in the next couple years.

Not my circus, not my clown, I’m just parroting what we were told by people who run the numbers.
 
derg said:
It doesn’t account for numbers hired from after COVID forward through hiring projections through 2026 and the lower-than-previously-average age of that block.

Yes, there has been a lot of churn in the business, but when you’re hiring loads of sub-30 year olds, the people that are paid money to look at the 1 the 5 the 10 the 15 year+ plans are predicting a log jam and a normalization of upgrade times, even with respect to retirements, in the next couple years.

Not my circus, not my clown, I’m just parroting what we were told by people who run the numbers.
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Numbers are important feelings are not.
 
derg said:
It doesn’t account for numbers hired from after COVID forward through hiring projections through 2026 and the lower-than-previously-average age of that block.

Yes, there has been a lot of churn in the business, but when you’re hiring loads of sub-30 year olds, the people that are paid money to look at the 1 the 5 the 10 the 15 year+ plans are predicting a log jam and a normalization of upgrade times, even with respect to retirements, in the next couple years.

Not my circus, not my clown, I’m just parroting what we were told by people who run the numbers.
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I mean back of the napkin if the average pilot gets hired at 35 and since about half of them are captains 10 year upgrades seem on the low side of reasonable. Air travel demand is going to rationalize back to growing at about the rate of population growth, it can’t just keep going forever. Oh and of course, with an R trifecta I would say we’re guaranteed age 67.
 
Wardogg said:
Remember, the airlines aren’t the only path to happiness.
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No doubt.

And, this was info I was aware of prior to starting CFI. For me it’s more about QOL than upgrade but log jam sounds like it would effect everything down to hiring.
 
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