Literally everything you post is based on feelings and emotion. Do you really need me to explain to you why the hiring dynamics/needs are unique at Alaska as compared to the big 3? Our hiring has never been based on mass retirements and our stagnation is caused by being tied to a single fleet type which is about to change very quickly. You literally just claimed that upgrades were now going to be 10+ years for the foreseeable future based on our current bid that has 0 captain vacancies but saw 3 upgrades due to 3 voluntary downgrades. Go ahead and show the math on that claim for me since you think numbers are your thing.
Alaska Hawaiian Merger Serious Version
- Thread starter alaskadrifter
- Start date
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
The most junior upgrade on the last bid was 13 years at AS. You can die mad about it. Or just understand that a lot of people put in for SEA captain and they didn't get it until they were 14-18 years in. One guy got SFO captain who was at 13. We also are not growing on the 737 side, we are in fact, reducing the fleet size. So there won't be an upgrade bid anytime soon. It's far more likely there will be a reduction bid.
At least @Cherokee_Cruiser acknowledged there was a behavior change. Senior FOs are trying to upgrade and they can't. They will keep trying. Until they can upgrade the upgrades will go very senior. I'm pretty sure how lucky you were when it came to hiring and how lucky I was when it came to upgrade (or stupid). Those times are gone. They will never come back.
///AMG
Well-Known Member
Gotta say, I couldn't give a f&&& about when I am senior enough to upgrade. I know not everyone here joined this airline by choice, but for those of us who did, it wasn't because we thought we didn't have one of the longest upgrade times in the present industry. I feel like when I can upgrade will align pretty nicely with when I feel ready, which is not now. I might be an outlier with that opinion, but at the rate I'm actually flying, it'll be years now until I'm even eligible based on the 121 hrs min requirement.
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Look, this was a displacement bid for FOs. There weren't even supposed to be ANY Captain movement. The reason you had senior upgrade is that 3 CAs decided to downgrade themselves.
3 Captain slots for 3,400 pilots. Yeah - it’s gonna go senior.
Give it time. Once we get back in the churn of normal vacancy biddings, it should trend toward normal. And NEED I remind you, “normal” for Alaska used to be 8+ yrs. All of a sudden the industry had street CAs and suddenly people feel entitled.
CoffeeIcePapers
Well-Hung Member
I can’t give you numbers for other airlines, but the average age of our CA at AA is well above 35. Pre-Covid, most new hires here were military and Eagle flows. Average new hire is still around 40 here. FOs are generally younger, but we only have like 80 widebody FOs under 40
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Oh I’m perfectly happy in the position I’m in. It’s just laughable that he pretends to know what the future holds, especially when he uses this latest bid as his example. There will always be pilots that will hold out in the right seat until the time is right for them (which might be never) and there will always be pilots who jump at the first available upgrade. Then there will always be a few who choose the latter and bitch eternally about how bad their quality of life is. The reality is we almost jumped the gap to post Covid hires upgrading last year. That would’ve put us around the 2-3 year mark had Boeing not • the bed. I’d hazard to guess we’ll get back to 5ish-year upgrades in a year or 2 and likely hold there for a while with moderate growth. This of course is also just my opinion so take it with a grain of salt.
Roger Roger
Bottom of the list
What I mean is, half the list are captains. So I think it’s reasonable to say that on average you’ll spend half your career as a captain. So if your average new hire is 35+, back of the napkin math gives you a 15 year upgrade. So 10 years is totally reasonable.
That all assumes 0 growth and hiring only for retirements. It also assumes a relatively linear age/seniority graph.
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Autothrust Blue
Welcome aboard the Washington State Ferries
I was considerably to the right of the median age, experience and education in my new hire class.
What a time to be alive, and other such comments.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
Exactly the situation we are in. With no present industry capability to grow.
Yes, that is true today.
Autothrust Blue
Welcome aboard the Washington State Ferries
I'm so over trying to predict anything so I revert to a rule I've always had:
If the music stopped today would you be okay to do what you're doing for the foreseeable future?
If the answer is yes, good job.
If the answer is no, why not, and how do you go about fixing it?