Is Kit Darby's Pilot Shortage Really Here?

Screw 'em and let them go elsewhere.\

You think that might help out?

I think that strategy alone could be worth billions to the airlines and would undoubtedly set things right again. Now, who will have the guts to implement it?
 
To raise fares I also think they are going to have to improve service, but I for one would pay more for better service, but that is me.
 
Raise freaking fares.

When you've got most planes going out with virtually no seats available, any other business would say, supply is limited, demand is high, I'm going to raise the price of my product.

Why airlines don't have the balls to do this -- yes, your Wal-Mart customers won't come back but screw 'em cause you ain't making money on them anyway -- I'll never know.

If Coach and Gucci and Louis Vuitton can sell a bag that costs them $50 to make for $800, why the bleep can't airlines do the same thing?

Sure, someone can go elsewhere, but screw 'em. Your goal as a business is to get PROFITABLE customers. If they ain't profitable, they ain't worth jacksquat and they divert your resources from PROFITABLE customers.

Screw 'em and let them go elsewhere.\

Raise fares to generate more revenue, and guess what? You can actually pay your employees well and they might actually not want to kick management's ass every single day they go to work.

You think that might help out?

:yeahthat:

You and I think a lot alike on this one. The problem with out thoughts is that they are rational and make sense. Anything that is rational and makes sense has no place in the airline industry. In fact it is a requirement for the airline to determine what is rational and makes sense, and do the complete opposite of that.:D
 
:yeahthat:

You and I think a lot alike on this one. The problem with out thoughts is that they are rational and make sense. Anything that is rational and makes sense has no place in the airline industry. In fact it is a requirement for the airline to determine what is rational and makes sense, and do the complete opposite of that.:D

You mean that a few years ago when they cut mainline amenities to the bone, but still charged a premium for, but spent a lot of money creating more amenities for Song but then cut the price wasn't pure brilliance? Oh...come.. ON!
 
Adding fuel to the fire....

This article was posted at APC but without sources. Wondering if anyone has seen it somewhere. I'm kinda guessing AOPA. Anyhow, my apologies if this has already been posted. If so, mods feel free to delete.

PASSENGER PLANES SIT IDLE BECAUSE NO PILOTS WANT TO FLY THEM.


PILOT SHORTAGE is a CAUSE for change.

What is happening in the Airline Industry? There are no pilots to fly those multi-million dollar airplanes. Pilots, including wannabe pilots, are changing careers. They are not choosing a professional flying career because economically it is not feasible.

Airline Transport Pilot Certificates issued from 1996 – 2005 have steadily declined from about 7,500 a year to 4,750 in 2005 an almost 40% decrease in qualified Captains. This is creating a Qualified Airline Pilot shortage, and a few things can happen.

WHAT AIRLINES WILL NOT DO

Pay higher salaries.

As a passenger, I was a little discouraged to know that my Captain, First Officer and Flight attendants (Who are responsible for my life from Point A to Point B) are worth only a few sheckles of the ticket price I paid. That’s right, they are paid $18.00-$20.00/hr. And to make matters worse, they are restricted by the FAA to a maximum of 1,000 of work a year. Many can legally apply for food stamps.

Imagine if air commerce stopped in the US for a week or even two. It did with the unfortunate surroundings of 9/11. However, the demand for air flight also dropped dramatically surrounding that incident. Demand actually dropped lower than supply, putting carriers out of business. Now imagine if Demand remained the same and the supply (meaning there were no pilots to fly those planes) ended for two weeks. Eventually, airlines would pay higher salaries, benefits, etc. in order to take advantage of the increasing demand.

WHAT AIRLINES WILL TRY TO DO

1) The airlines will continue to reduce costs anyway possible. They will spend money on lobbyist groups in Washington D.C. to relax rule making against them. The current Jet Blue debacle begs a “Passenger Bill of Rights.” This has the airlines up in arms. They DO NOT want to be restricted on how to operate. They also do not want to be held accountable for their failures.

In addition, the airlines are currently lobbying for the General Aviation user fee policy. The airlines want to charge the GA pilot thousands of dollars a year to use weather service, fly in the airspace system, land at airports, etc. The airlines are paying the majority now, but that may soon pass to the GA enthusiast.

What does that mean in the future? Fewer pilots for the airlines due to less pilot starts because of prohibitively high costs to entry. This decision by the airlines will only compound their “pilot shortage” problems, cost problems, efficiency problems, management problems, etc.

2) Airlines will reduce minimums. Pilot minimums will become lower and lower until the new SIC will sit right seat in a 250 person passenger jet with only 250 hours of experience. This individual will have been trained to so-called airline standards; however, he/she will have never soloed in ANY plane. It’s being proposed abroad because of the lack of numbers of qualified pilots to fill vacancies.

The Airlines will do this to increase supply of (LOW HOURLY WAGE) accepting pilots. There are a lot more pilots who have under 1,000 hours willing to work for $18-$20/hour vs. 3,000+ hour pilots willing to work for those type of minimum wages.

The airlines are forced to do this, because they do not want to increase wages for their frontline employees, those responsible for the safety of millions of air travelers yearly. They are trying to entice pilots with anything except respectable salaries. Here are just some examples.

American Eagle (American Airline feeder) : Reduced minimums to 850 hours of Total Time (TT) and is now allowing the pilot candidate to choose their domicile. (no cost to Eagle)

SkyWest (United Express, Delta Connection and Midwest feeder): Just lowered their minimums to 850 TT, now pay for training, lodging and supply uniforms

Mesa (United Express, Delta Connection, and US Airways/America West feeder): Lowered their minimums to 500 TT and are offering $5,000 bonus to those pilots with United Express experience.

Republic Airlines (Frontier, American Connection, Continental Express, Delta Connection, United Express and US Airways Express): Offering a $2,500 bonus to new hires after passing Initial Operating Experience (IOE) if one has regional jet experience. They need over 1,000 pilots this year.

Trans States Airlines (American Connection, US Airways and United Express): They have begun finally paying for lodging while at training and have offered a small salary based on 60 hours a month, though training is over 120 hours per month.

Express Jet (Continental feeder): Hiring at 600 TT and rapid upgrades.

3). Airlines will be forced to hire and retain “SUBPAR” Employees. Those that lack the skill, quality, efficiency and know-how of what it takes to be in the airline business. They will force themselves to not “Fire” or “Terminate” employment of those in violation of rules or policies. They can’t afford to eliminate workers, because they are so short staffed, and cannot fill vacancies with current employee policies, wage contracts, etc. This leads to settling for marginal performance which will begin the complete degradation of the airline industry and experience in the United States.

4) Airlines will try to consolidate and/or split. They will do this to
a) Ensure favorable long term contracts. (SkyWest merger with ASA) and to reduce air transport supply in the market place (thus pseudo increasing the number of pilots available to fly the fewer planes). Airlines will then be able to charge higher fees for the increased demand that is present. However, if they are too aggressive too much consolidation could create transportation substitution alternatives. (Bus, train, private planes, etc.)
b) Cut costs. They will try starting new companies in order to bypass labor union strangleholds against a company lowering wages (Go Jets/Trans States and Mesaba/NWA/Compass Airlines to name a few).


OVERSEES COMPETITION

Many oversees airlines are hiring US pilots at far greater wages, they include free housing, no taxes, allowance for a car, etc. It's happening already. And U.S Airlines are NOT reacting; they are not going on the offensive to retain pilots with better wages, QOL, benefits, etc. They are trying to trim fat where fat doesn't exist, change regulations, merge, and do all sorts of other things instead paying an acceptable wage and focus on GROWING the business.

Right now US airlines are trying to keep the business that they have vs. concentrating on setting themselves apart from the others. These oversees airlines are smart. They see this and are taking advantage of an industry that is broken. This could lead to economic disruption in the US.

It’s ironic. US companies have been outsourcing cheap labor in foreign markets for decades; now these foreign markets are employing our skilled labor at far greater compensation than can be obtained in the United States.


WHAT PILOTS MAY, WILL or SHOULD DO

Leave the Industry or Country. Massive pilot fleeing helps to reduce supply of those able to operate planes. Captains, both Junior and Senior will flee to where their time invested will provide them with a greater dollar reward and better QOL. As Captains flee, FO’s will welcome the short term increase in salary until they feel compelled to leave as well. It’s happening already in the industry. If the economies of scale are greater and the opportunity cost is lower for NOT being a pilot, an outflow will happen causing massive dollars to be lost by airlines not being able to provide enough supply for demand. The Pilot’s unwillingness to settle for poverty wage will eventually force airlines to 1) Pay more or 2) Reduce qualifications or 3) Go out of business.

Imagine if airlines paid $55/hr to a 1st year FO, $70 for his/her 2nd year, etc. You would get more qualified, skilled and seasoned pilots. Pilots might consider holding out to work for a certain airline, and may even choose to stay with a company long term, thus reducing continuous training costs for the airlines and maximizing employee profitability.


WHAT THE PUBLIC WILL DO

The public will continue to fly. The public stops flying when cost becomes to probative or when SAFETY is compromised (like 9/11). Should any of these two scenarios happen, the public will choose to fly less, consider alternative transportation methods or not fly at all. When this happens the U.S.A will take a severe hit to economic growth. The U.S relies on the transportation industry to move goods and services that create jobs which in turn keeps the economy rolling along. If and when that stops, something has to start it rolling again. (Pilots Wanted signs will appear)

WHAT THE U.S GOVT. WILL DO
If the airlines fail to entice pilots to work through higher salaries, QOL, benefits, pensions etc., you can bet that the govt. will mandate to airlines to provide MINIMUM salaries for pilots OR they will provide supplemental assistance (subsidies) to companies or pilot groups in order restore transportation and promote the “economic need, welfare and desire” for the pilot/individual to choose a career in aviation.

1) The government has already guaranteed airline pensions. They bailed out the airlines because the airlines are incapable to bail themselves out.

2) The airline lobby group is so strong that they just relaxed the pilot age requirement from 60 to 65. Here is a very current real time example of how Govt. is getting involved today. This will offset the pilot shortage by about 3,800 over the next 5 years. Just a small amount, but enough to cause a slight worry for all on how strong the airline lobby is.

3) In addition, the FAA needs to hire over 15,000 controllers during the next 8-10 years. The starting salary for new controllers is greater than those of airline pilots and the benefits package is far superior to any airline. For many, a choice in controlling may outweigh what the choice of being a pilot. http://www.thetracon.com/atcjobs.htm


WHAT THE NEWS MEDIA COULD DO
The news media might do well spending more time talking about potential outcomes of a “Pilot shortage” and “Low Wages” as well as the “Severe Safety Concerns” of these Low Time pilots with extremely new decision making skills.

Many don't know that their "newbie" First Officer might be an 850 hr Total Time 50 hr Multi-engine pilot, who only first saw the technologically advanced Jet Cockpit Glass display only 3 weeks prior and whose longest x-ctry trip was 250 nm in a Cessna 172. Imagine, if they knew this and demanded that qualifications were higher for airline pilots.

In addition, the public assumes pilots are well paid. They don't know that many pilots NEED to have part-time jobs to supplement their income. The public doesn’t know that many pilots are too tired to fly because they have to work extra jobs. The public doesn’t know they are at risk.


Pilots and the Airlines know what conditions are currently like, and how those conditions affect each. However, the public and government don’t know or care at this point, because everything is moving along smoothly. That is because it isn’t an issue for them now. It is only an issue when it affects them OR when they know it MIGHT affect them. We now have the recent Jet Blue debacle showcased by the media. The public (consumer) is now demanding change.
 
This article was posted at APC but without sources. Wondering if anyone has seen it somewhere. I'm kinda guessing AOPA.
It's interesting. Looks a little, uh, shall we say "Less than professionally edited" to be from someplace like AOPA.

Okay, I want to get in on the predicting. In less than 10 years:

1. We will see schools using one type of aircraft for the sole purpose of training airline pilots from the ground up. Ab Initio training in twins or light jets, combined with working on multiple ratings at the same time, kind of like the SAFER program at MTSU. Think ATP with nothing but Eclipse 500s. This will eventually lead to...

2. People who have never soloed an airplane will be flying airliners. The old route of starting small and working your way up will be gone. People will be trained to specifically fly airliners, not be pilots in general. Regional jet schools will start to spring up. You will be able to walk in off the street with zero time, and a few months later get hired in an onsite interview, never having flown a recip aircraft. You train for one purpose: To fly an RJ.
 
2. People who have never soloed an airplane will be flying airliners. The old route of starting small and working your way up will be gone. People will be trained to specifically fly airliners, not be pilots in general. Regional jet schools will start to spring up. You will be able to walk in off the street with zero time, and a few months later get hired in an onsite interview, never having flown a recip aircraft. You train for one purpose: To fly an RJ.

ICAO (I believe) has already approved a rating/license JUST for that. It's the MCPL (Multi-Crew Pilot License). I guess it costs about $100,000 and all you're training is done with another pilot so you will be "familiar" with working in a crew environment. No solo time or anything like that. Apparently Darby believes that in a few years US airlines will be the ones paying/training pilots for this license.
 
I still believe we have not given the airlines enough time to respond to their recent change in financial status. They just returned to the black after seeing red these past years. Now with the next contract talks coming up, Im assuming American will be first, if we do not see at least a complete restoration of the pre-9/11 wages, then I see reason to let all hell break loose. As I said before, I believe these management people are smart enough to know they can't fly the planes themselves and will be forced to give the pilots a significant raise. When this happens, then I believe the regionals will adjust their payscales as well. Management is backing into a corner and raising pay is the only way I see they can get out. But as always, only time will tell.
 
Sometimes I wish there was an Airline Executives Forum so we can see what these guys think.:)
 
I still believe we have not given the airlines enough time to respond to their recent change in financial status. They just returned to the black after seeing red these past years.

They've had since 1978 to change, but instead of changing, they've been running the airlines like they were still regulated. The financial losses are a result of their mismanagement, NOT labor costs. However, labor givebacks were a HUGE reason they are now back in the black. Go figure.
 
Yea, liked they'd tell all their secrets...

Most management is nothing but monkey see, monkey do.

There's a grocery store in the DC area that used to be known for good service, and loyal and happy employees. Well, they got taken over, and guess what management did?

They said, hey, let's cut expenses. Let's see if we can't get some of the older folks out, and get people who are cheaper in.

Know what happened?

Instead of profits going up for the chain, they WENT DOWN.

Now, anyone with a brain could have figured this out. Take a loyal and happy workforce that gives good service, piss them off, and they ain't gonna be happy coming to work. The customers have other choices and they will go there.

On the flip side, some of their competitors who charge a few percentage points more but have staff that actually wants to be there and that provides better service are seeing bigger profits and increasing market share.

I have never figured out why everyone wants to be Wal-Mart when their margins are so small and their growth is slowing. There is only a limited market for people who want bottom dollar prices when it comes with crap service.

There is a much bigger market for people who say, yes, I will pay a few percent -- in some cases, many percent -- more for better service.
 
Most management is nothing but monkey see, monkey do.

There's a grocery store in the DC area that used to be known for good service, and loyal and happy employees. Well, they got taken over, and guess what management did?

They said, hey, let's cut expenses. Let's see if we can't get some of the older folks out, and get people who are cheaper in.

Know what happened?

Instead of profits going up for the chain, they WENT DOWN.

Now, anyone with a brain could have figured this out. Take a loyal and happy workforce that gives good service, piss them off, and they ain't gonna be happy coming to work. The customers have other choices and they will go there.

On the flip side, some of their competitors who charge a few percentage points more but have staff that actually wants to be there and that provides better service are seeing bigger profits and increasing market share.

I have never figured out why everyone wants to be Wal-Mart when their margins are so small and their growth is slowing. There is only a limited market for people who want bottom dollar prices when it comes with crap service.

There is a much bigger market for people who say, yes, I will pay a few percent -- in some cases, many percent -- more for better service.

The name of the game in corporate america is greed. I guess it is a negative side effect of being a capitalist society.

That said it make more senses business wise to find good talent and then retain it. By having superior work rules and pay with an environment that fosters creativity and allows for anyone willing and able to succeed.

But lately the focus of this country has changed for the worst where management and labor have an adversarial relationship at best, and everybody is out to get rich as individuals and not as a collective group.

Sadly, I hear that this corporate greed philopshy is not only a learned trait but being taught and enforced to MBA's at the graduate level. Pleasing the stock holders is all that matters and give the workers less but expect them to work more. The bottom line is the almighty dollar, and not human decency or respect!
 
The name of the game in corporate america is greed. I guess it is a negative side effect of being a capitalist society.

That said it make more senses business wise to find good talent and then retain it. By having superior work rules and pay with an environment that fosters creativity and allows for anyone willing and able to succeed.

But lately the focus of this country has changed for the worst where management and labor have an adversarial relationship at best, and everybody is out to get rich as individuals and not as a collective group.

Sadly, I hear that this corporate greed philopshy is not only a learned trait but being taught and enforced to MBA's at the graduate level. Pleasing the stock holders is all that matters and give the workers less but expect them to work more. The bottom line is the almighty dollar, and not human decency or respect!

This is very true. Here's a clear example:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...ies/032907dnbuscircuitcityjobcuts.a9b0ca.html

Management (at most airlines) want to pay the pilots as little as they possibly can. Thats why negotiations can be long and drawn out sometimes. What happened to those poor folks at circuit city also happened to my uncle at Office Depot. He had started from the bottom, put in years of hard work and service to make it to Service manager. Recently he was told he could either resign and re-apply for his job or he would be fired, because he was making too much money. Cut throat, absolutely cut throat. It is survival of the fittest out there in today's corporate america. I don't blame the executives either they are trying to do their job, impress the shareholders,and help the company grow, all while competition is breathing down their back.
 
This is very true. Here's a clear example:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...ies/032907dnbuscircuitcityjobcuts.a9b0ca.html

Management (at most airlines) want to pay the pilots as little as they possibly can. Thats why negotiations can be long and drawn out sometimes. What happened to those poor folks at circuit city also happened to my uncle at Office Depot. He had started from the bottom, put in years of hard work and service to make it to Service manager. Recently he was told he could either resign and re-apply for his job or he would be fired, because he was making too much money. Cut throat, absolutely cut throat. It is survival of the fittest out there in today's corporate america. I don't blame the executives either they are trying to do their job, impress the shareholders,and help the company grow, all while competition is breathing down their back.

Yeah, I heard about Circuit City thing on NBC nightly news last night. Which reminds me...to not shop Circuit City any longer.

As for the executive, yes blame them. Don't pity them. As they're cutting worker jobs or asking them to do more with less while padding both their pockets and the shareholders. The employees get nothing for all their hard work.
 
We have an australian lad on Jace and I's site. He stated that aviation is only for the rich in Australia.

He said a Baron at his school rents for $500 an hour!!!

More like 500 an for a smaller Duchess. I'm paying 200 an hour for a 150, and I ain't rich...just making bigger sacrifices. But AUS$ is about .80 to the US dollar.
 
ICAO (I believe) has already approved a rating/license JUST for that. It's the MCPL (Multi-Crew Pilot License). I guess it costs about $100,000 and all you're training is done with another pilot so you will be "familiar" with working in a crew environment. No solo time or anything like that. Apparently Darby believes that in a few years US airlines will be the ones paying/training pilots for this license.

MCPLs may be a way for airline pilot recruitment in the future, but I don't it will be the sole source for pilot recruitment. Airlines will still like to pick pilots from various flying backgrounds, i.e. GA pilots. In other words, they like well rounded individuals, not just guys coming off MCPL conveyer belts.
 
The name of the game in corporate america is greed. I guess it is a negative side effect of being a capitalist society.

But lately the focus of this country has changed for the worst where management and labor have an adversarial relationship at best, and everybody is out to get rich as individuals and not as a collective group.

The lack of historical perspective can be hilarious sometimes. When I was growing up it was still very popular to talk about the old "robber barons." Basically these were all the men who started the industries that built this country. Steel, transportation, etc. They were evil incarnate, becoming millionaires off the sweat and labor of their abused workers. Of course most of this perspective came from academics who had never sweated much and who held as the ideal any system that rewarded the "collective group" at the expense of the innovators, entrepreneurs and hard workers.

In other words, the very same "this country has changed for the worst, when once it was all so wonderful" lament.

Sadly, I hear that this corporate greed philopshy is not only a learned trait but being taught and enforced to MBA's at the graduate level. Pleasing the stock holders is all that matters and give the workers less but expect them to work more. The bottom line is the almighty dollar, and not human decency or respect!
Sadly, not much of anything is being taught and enforced in universties. At least anything usable in the business world. Useful stuff is learned in the trenches. But the good news is the universities are still a haven for the same old socialists, eager to never sweat a day in their lives or ever start an enterprise that employs a single person. But who know what is best for everyone else ie collectivism.

So hang in there Max, hope is still alive!
 
It's only a 'shortage' when pay and benefits skyrocket and operators cannot find pilots to fill the jobs.

It's only a quasi "shortage" because they're not getting the flow of applicants willing to do the work for the passenger industries pay and benefit packages they're offering.

When the airlines decide to kick down some significant duckets to increase pay and benefits, voila, no shortage of people willing, able and qualified to perform the work.

Thats why I left Piedmont. Little bitty pay for too many years ahead of me. If pay goes up I could get back into 121 flying.
 
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