Comair Crash today (fatal)

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The NTSB wont speculate in Public because they had a idiot for a Director in the 70's that did it and caused a whole mess cause he opened his trap....among other things.
 
flyover said:
What I was commenting on was the idea that the NTSB is the only authority pilots should give their attention to. It seemed to suggest some objectivity or infallibility that set them apart from any other source of information.

Remember, NTSB conclusions are formed by committee. There are many parties to the investigation, each with their own point of view.
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Well, I'd rather trust the NTSB over news agencies and witnesses on TV.

A committe is good right? From my understanding, there are pilot union, aircraft manufacturer and airline representatives participating in the investigation. I'd say that's good.

I just think that as pilots (whether professional or recreational), we need to make sure that the aviation industry is represented fairly. I was sitting with some friends yesterday, who said "There were two pilots. How could they do something so stupid". So I gave them some examples of accidents in other industries and how it can happen to anyone. They realized that yes, it could be blatant pilot error, or, a part of a chain of events which could not be caught (even in the safest air transportation system in the world).

A friend of mine who was a Captain for ACA (and Independence Air) was on a trip where one of the engines on the Jetstream 32 disintegrated. He lucikly made a safe landing. He had no complaints on the NTSB after they came out with their report and was very impressed with their analysis. So lets not put them down so quickly.
 
Spoke to my dad this afternoon. He runs Delta's RJ, MD88-90, and 737 engine test shop/cell at the TOC in Atlanta.

He told me the FAA was in bright in early yesterday morning, he had to wake up at 8am or so to go in and get all documentation on the engines that he and his team had worked on only two weeks ago.

I had forgotten he handles RJ engines until I spoke to him this afternoon. Kind of brought things full circle, for me at least.

I've got my opinions, as many of us do, of what happened. Now it'll be a few months before the official verdict comes out. Hopefully the crew wont get villified, even if it is pilot error. :(
 
flyover said:
Yes the NTSB is the first infallible government agency in the history of man. Even ALPA doesn't challenge NTSB findings. Oh wait, they do.

Never mind.
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You aren't kidding on that.

I'm sure you may have seen the NTSB final from PSA 182. The actual report is just the minor part. The countless rebuttals and minority opinions that are in the appendix of that report make it an interesting read.
 
As I come back to this thread to pick up bits and pieces of new information, I'm a bit bewildered by the twists and turns that it has made through this issue of speculation. Perhaps the subject is worthy of its own thread. Yes, I know, there's another thread hyperlinked that speaks to the point of speculation, but it merely goes to the point of why one should avoid speculation.

The trouble here seems to be defining what constitutes speculation. It would seem that some folks think that anything not directly spoken by the NTSB is speculation. We can only digest information fed from that government body. We trust almost no other government agency for any purpose, yet we impart a holiness and other god-like qualitites to THIS entity.
Really?
What is the difference between observation and speculation? If I see a live video feed from a helicopter that shows the airport, and a trench dug along the extended centerline of a particular runway, and a burning airplane at the opposite end of that trench, can I not observe that the airplane came to rest off the end of that runway? Can I not observe that? Or do I need to be told by the NTSB that the airplane came to rest off the end of the runway?
If someone says it looks like the airplane took off on RWY 26, that sounds to me like an observation, not speculation. Speculation is, "He took off on the short runway because ________" Fill in the blank. The pilots were fatigued because of the CDO, or standup, or whatever you call their duty/rest arrangement. The pilots weren't paying attention because they were talking in violation of the sterile cockpit rule. The pilots chose the wrong runway because of a malfunction in their heading system. The pilots chose the short runway because they incorrectly assumed they could get off the runway in 3000'. The pilots set the takeoff power and couldn't make it off the gorund. An engine failed after V1 and the second one failed after liftoff. Both engines failed just after liftoff due to contaminated fuel.

THOSE statements are speculation, and have no place in these types of converastions - - I think we can mostly agree on that.

But to characterize everything that anyone but the NTSB realeases as speculation is unfair. I think some folks have been treated a bit harshly just for sharing their observations.


Just my 2 cents' worth.




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TonyC said:
As I come back to this thread to pick up bits and pieces of new information, I'm a bit bewildered by the twists and turns that it has made through this issue of speculation. Perhaps the subject is worthy of its own thread. Yes, I know, there's another thread hyperlinked that speaks to the point of speculation, but it merely goes to the point of why one should avoid speculation.

The trouble here seems to be defining what constitutes speculation. It would seem that some folks think that anything not directly spoken by the NTSB is speculation. We can only digest information fed from that government body. We trust almost no other government agency for any purpose, yet we impart a holiness and other god-like qualitites to THIS entity.
Really?
What is the difference between observation and speculation? If I see a live video feed from a helicopter that shows the airport, and a trench dug along the extended centerline of a particular runway, and a burning airplane at the opposite end of that trench, can I not observe that the airplane came to rest off the end of that runway? Can I not observe that? Or do I need to be told by the NTSB that the airplane came to rest off the end of the runway?
If someone says it looks like the airplane took off on RWY 26, that sounds to me like an observation, not speculation. Speculation is, "He took off on the short runway because ________" Fill in the blank. The pilots were fatigued because of the CDO, or standup, or whatever you call their duty/rest arrangement. The pilots weren't paying attention because they were talking in violation of the sterile cockpit rule. The pilots chose the wrong runway because of a malfunction in their heading system. The pilots chose the short runway because they incorrectly assumed they could get off the runway in 3000'. The pilots set the takeoff power and couldn't make it off the gorund. An engine failed after V1 and the second one failed after liftoff. Both engines failed just after liftoff due to contaminated fuel.

THOSE statements are speculation, and have no place in these types of converastions - - I think we can mostly agree on that.

But to characterize everything that anyone but the NTSB realeases as speculation is unfair. I think some folks have been treated a bit harshly just for sharing their observations.


Just my 2 cents' worth.


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I spoke earlier (a few pages back) on informed speculation and observation as a good means of trading ideas and generating discussion on various aspects of whats and whys that we may not think about on a daily basis and can be reminded of it (for example). The only thing mainly mentioned about what might not be so good are those that are speculating as supposed fact, or turning observations of what into why. That seemed to be the only thing that Doug wasn't liking.

As for the NTSB, I'm two ways about them. They're rank and file investigators are pretty sharp, those that I've ever worked with, but the actual politically-voted-in-board-members.....some I can take, some I can leave. I caught snippets today of (I believe) someone from the NTSB speaking on the crash and mentioning that the plane departing and or supposed to be using "runway twenty-six" and/or "runway twenty-two"....complete non-aviation speak; which is something I'd expect from an accident investigating and safety agency which has Aviation safety as one of its major sections.
 
MikeD said:
I spoke earlier (a few pages back) on informed speculation and observation as a good means of trading ideas and generating discussion on various aspects of whats and whys that we may not think about on a daily basis and can be reminded of it (for example). The only thing mainly mentioned about what might not be so good are those that are speculating as supposed fact, or turning observations of what into why. That seemed to be the only thing that Doug wasn't liking.
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Is this the kind of"informed speculation and observation" that you're talking about?

... with it being one of the first flights of the day out of that airport, it could be more maintenance related because, i think - and don't quote me, if the runway was too short, they probably had enough distance to take off anyway even if it might have been a steep angle (unless the tail hit and that helped things along).
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... i hope someone does a check on their crew rest/layover time!!! it could very well be that fatigue is involved since it was one of the first flights of the day and if ATC told them runway 22, then they should check out ATC's crew rest times too...
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...that airport has ATC and a control tower there on the premises right? if so, wouldn't the top guys in the control tower seen that they were on the wrong runway and told them to hold vs giving them the ok to takeoff?? typically planes hold before taking off, so you'd have thought someone in ATC would have seen or noticed the error?
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Doug says, "If the source isn't the NTSB, it's pure speculation." You're talking about "informed speculation." Frankly, the message in this thread about speculation is very blurry.


Just my opinion - - it looks like buffalopilot is being singled out because he boiled what many others were saying into a short version, and because he had the audacity to defend himself.

I'll go ahead and step out of the thread for six hours.




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Whoah Nelly!

That was in reference to people saying "well the news said..." when the accident was fresh.

I cautioned them that what they're hearing on Fox/CNN/MSNBC probably isn't accurate and to wait for the NTSB in that circumstance.

I'm not saying the NTSB is the pure undriven, unquestionable authority on crash investigations (anyone remember Roselawn?), but Saturday afternoon rampant speculation was king, and being reported as "fact" on television.

"I think" was a world of difference than "This is the unquesetionable, obvious truth" saturday morning.
 
Without speculating on anything, this accident has me liking my HAWLT line-up mnemonic a whole lot better than the Lights/Camera/Action everyone I know uses. I was taught L/C/A, didn't much care for it, came up with HAWLT on my own. Stands for:

Heading - crosscheck heading indicator, compass and runway
Altitude - transponder set to ALT
Winds - mental check of wind direction
Lights - landing light on
Time - note time

And finally, "HAWLT" itself is a reminder to stop and think for a moment before mashing in the throttle.
 
Here is an article on the Captain. I like what his brother says about speculation right now.

http://www.thedailyjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060829/NEWS01/608290306/1002

Wife: 'He was an excellent pilot'
By BRENNA R. KELLY
Gannett News Service


BURLINGTON, Ky. -- Details mattered to Jeff Clay.
In his backyard, the 35-year-old pilot landscaped around his 2-year-old daughter's playhouse -- mulch, pavers and all. OAS_AD('ArticleFlex_1'); The Vineland native mopped the floor. He ironed. He like to balance the checkbook just to hear the "ding" on the Quicken computer program.

"He's the guy that when you need something, you ask him, and he takes care of it. He took care of all of us all the time," Clay's wife, Amy, said Monday. "I'll have to do that myself now."
Jeff Clay was the captain of Comair Flight 5191, which crashed soon after takeoff Sunday from Blue Grass Airport in Lexington. All 47 passengers died; only the co-pilot survived.
Jeff Clay's girls -- Shelby, 2, and Sarah, 3 months -- are too young to know their dad isn't coming home. But Amy Clay is determined that they will know him.
"I have two little girls I'm going to have to reconstruct their father for," she said. "I have to keep him alive for them."


Dinner with family

When Jeff Clay had a stopover somewhere close while he was flying several days at a time, Amy would try to meet her husband for a brief visit with the girls.
He had been gone for two days when Amy drove to Lexington on Saturday afternoon for a family dinner at Ramsey's. Jeff had arrived in Lexington earlier that day as a passenger on a flight because he was scheduled to fly Flight 5191 on Sunday.
Over a chicken sandwich and Hot Brown, with the toddler and baby, the couple shared a quick dinner before Jeff went to his hotel.
"I'm glad that I saw him," she said.
She last talked to her husband when he called around 10 p.m. to say he was going to sleep.


'An excellent pilot'

Amy Clay was just getting up Sunday when a friend called to tell her to turn on the TV. She did, and she knew.
Now she cringes at the headlines and TV reports that blame the pilots for the crash.
"He was an excellent pilot, and my heart is broken for everyone involved in this," she said, "but I know with all my heart that they could not have been in better hands than they were with Jeff."
The National Transportation Safety Board said late Monday that it was co-pilot James Polehinke -- and not Clay -- who was in control of the plane when it crashed.
Polehinke, the lone survivor who was pulled from the plane, was in critical condition Monday at University of Kentucky Hospital.
Though she has been trying not to watch TV, Amy Clay heard reports Monday that the taxiways at Blue Grass Airport had been changed recently.
"For right now, I'll wait until the investigation is complete," she said. "All I can say is that my husband is an excellent pilot, a top-notch pilot."
Jeff Clay had been flying that type of plane for seven years, she said. And he frequently flew out of Lexington.
"That was not the first time that he had flown out of Lexington by any stretch," she said. "He has plenty of experience with the Lexington airport."
Clay's family has been swamped with requests for interviews from national and international media, said his brother, James Clay Jr.
"Unfortunately, speculation is directing the investigation through the media, instead of waiting to hear factual information as it is identified," he said early Monday evening. "The info we have received from the National Transportation Safety Board is contradictory to a lot of the info that has been running in the TV news."


'Where he was last'

Jeff Clay grew up in Vineland. At Vineland High School, he was captain of the wrestling team.
His brother and parents still live in the city. They headed to Kentucky on Sunday and, upon arriving, went directly to the crash site.
"My mom wanted to be where he was last," James Clay Jr. said.
He said his brother's body has not been released to the family. A memorial service in Kentucky is tentatively planned for Friday.
Pancoast Funeral Home in Vineland will handle funeral arrangements, he said.
Comair has taken care of all the travel, food and lodging arrangements for the family.
"Amy is doing the best she can," James Clay Jr. said. "The whole family is here. We're all right, I guess. It's the second day. It's a lot thrown at people."


'A great dad'

Jeff Clay graduated from Rutgers University with a degree in economics. But his real love was flying.
He was in flight school in Orlando, Fla., when he met Amy, a Kentucky girl who grew up in the eastern Kentucky town of Paintsville.
"I never met a southern boy quite like him," said Amy, 34, who moved to Orlando after college to work in public relations.
They married in October 2000. When Comair stationed Jeff Clay at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, the couple moved to Amy's home state, first to Taylor Mill, then to Burlington, where they bought their first house.
The couple traveled extensively until the birth of their first daughter. Then they found joy in family life.
"He loved his family, he loved me and our two little girls," she said. "Those girls are his whole world, he's such a great dad. He did everything for them."
In the spring, Jeff Clay planted petunias and other annual flowers outside the family home. Despite the dry weather, the flowers are thriving because he often watered them with 2-year-old Shelby's help.
"She loved to water them with him," Amy Clay said. "This morning she pointed and said 'Daddy's flowers.'"
That's only one of the things she hopes her children remember about their dad.
"We have so many good memories," she said. "I just hope I can help the girls to know him." Staff writer Jason Carris contributed to this report.

Originally published August 29, 2006
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Oh well, here we go.... nothing not seen before from previous mishaps I suppose. Just a different flavor.

Just looked at a CNN feed. Some ex NTSB "expert" was on a little CNN clip with a dumber than a newborn chimp reporter. Using "special software", they reconstructed the whole thing. Showing a computer generated seen etc etc and showing all this,.... claiming: "this is what the pilot saw".... with full problem solving words. Yack yack yack. What they didn't mention was that the "special software" was MS flight sim. I guess all the experts can go home. This one is solved. They could have just asked any kid with a PC and some game software to solve it. Good grief. If the REAL investigation turns real complex (most are), I can see someone saying that they saw what really happened on CNN already. Geez.
 
JEP said:
Yea, I have heard of it. So what! PKR has no idea who was responsible for what. None of us do. Maybe PKR would would wish that he (PKR) would be dead, but that's his own deal.
He's laying blame on the FO and has as much evidence as we do, Not Much. We don't know who told, whomever what to do. Until the NTSB finishes their investigation, the rest is all a bunch of information. Leave it alone.

That's the disrespect I am talking about.
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I didnt mean any disrespect, chill out. Im just saying that whenever I go flying I expect the same fate as my passengers, unless theres unusual cirumstances. I know hes going to have a diffcult time in the future and I wish him the best. If it were me, I would be envious of the Captains position.

PKR
 
pkrgod said:
I didnt mean any disrespect, chill out. Im just saying that whenever I go flying I expect the same fate as my passengers, unless theres unusual cirumstances. I know hes going to have a diffcult time in the future and I wish him the best. If it were me, I would be envious of the Captains position.

PKR
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This is one of those things. People are always making the comment "he died doing what he loved (whether it be flying or fishing or watching porn) but I don't think anybody ever dies doing what they love. They die, and unless they love dieing they certainly aren't loveing what they are doing.

During an in flight emergency I would expect most people to work to their maximum effort to end up with a sucessful outcome. I know you weren't just saying well, we messed up so lets roll the plane upside down and pull, but either way thinking that it would be better to die then survive goes against most human instinct.
 
I am sure his family feels different. How would your family feel? By making statements that say things like I would wish I were dead show a total lack of compassion.
 
When it rains, it pours.

JACKSON, Ky., Aug. 28 -- A small plane carrying seven people crashed Monday in a wooded, mountainous area of southeastern Kentucky, about 100 miles from the site of Sunday's commuter-jet crash in Lexington, and authorities said no survivors had been found.
The twin-engine Cessna departed from Kickapoo Downtown Airport near Wichita Falls, Tex., said Kathleen Bergen, spokeswoman for the Federal Aviation Administration in Atlanta. She said she didn't know the destination because the pilot did not file a flight plan.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/28/AR2006082801529.html
 
scottyboy75 said:
I am sure his family feels different.
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My Ol' Lady and I have had the "death by airplane" discussion many times, and sometimes it is what it is. She knows that while I may be a great pilot, that there will be talk if I do something stupid - and that she's just going to have to deal with it.

Fact of life.
 
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