Club Furlough

[who'swho]

Call me a blind optimist, but I just don't see a multi-year furlough coming down the pike at the majors. Six months to a year, maybe a year and a half in the extreme, but not 3-4 years. If traffic were still down 90% then yes I think that is accurate, but with traffic having crept up to where most airlines are operating roughly 40-55% currently and probably creeping up especially if there is a vaccine in the beginning of next year, I just don't see it. Also, keep in mind, that even though United sent out a ton of WARN notices, I highly doubt that all of those will actually be furloughed, especially with the fact that their schedule will still increase roughly by 10% next month (that is taking into account that they have walked back some of the schedule increase with this second wave).

I'm guessing that UA is making a big deal about this right now to bring attention back around to them so they can potentially get another bailout to help them beyond Oct 1st. I would be really shocked if they furlough more than half of what they have sent letters out. I heard everyone at XJT got WARN letters as well.

 

[flynryan692]

Those of us who truly love the profession don’t care what shift we are on. We just want to get back to working a desk.

So if you don't want to work at 2AM and would like to spend time with your family you don't love profession? Give me a break.

 

[Luigi]

So if you don't want to work at 2AM and would like to spend time with your family you don't love profession? Give me a break.

I guess admittedly, there’s still another 14 hours in a day to spend time with your family. I think what our pal @MT was getting at is that we all want to be employed, and I don’t think any of us truly want to switch careers.

I wholeheartedly approve that message.

 

[CF34-3B1]

I heard everyone at XJT got WARN letters as well.

Ol mr burns going to dispatch everything himself then? Lol

 

[Flagship_dxer]

Ol mr burns going to dispatch everything himself then? Lol

C5 is sending out WARN letters to everyone as well. My wild guess is UAL has put both on notice that they are considering consolidating their E145 flying to one carrier.

 

[Flagship_dxer]

Call me a blind optimist, but I just don't see a multi-year furlough coming down the pike at the majors. Six months to a year, maybe a year and a half in the extreme, but not 3-4 years. If traffic were still down 90% then yes I think that is accurate, but with traffic having crept up to where most airlines are operating roughly 40-55% currently and probably creeping up especially if there is a vaccine in the beginning of next year, I just don't see it. Also, keep in mind, that even though United sent out a ton of WARN notices, I highly doubt that all of those will actually be furloughed, especially with the fact that their schedule will still increase roughly by 10% next month (that is taking into account that they have walked back some of the schedule increase with this second wave).

It doesn't take a massive furlough to cause a training issues from re-calls. Even a small furlough of 30 would mean needing to free up classroom space and instructors (possibly at OT rates) to teach an initial new hire class if the furlough is longer than a year. If less than a year, you might need recurrent class training depending on when they are re-called. A classroom can only hold so many.

A short furlough can be very costly depending on the timing and contract. The junior dispatchers occupy the work schedule nobody else wants. Typically, midnight lines. Until desks can be re-bid and implemented post furlough, the airline is likely looking at significant OT costs to fill the desks vacated by the furloughs. October 1 is a very awkward time of the year for dispatch furloughs.

 

[Luigi]

. October 1 is a very awkward time of the year for dispatch furloughs.

I agree with everything you wrote, but do you mind if I ask what a non-awkward time for furloughs is?

 

[Flagship_dxer]

I agree with everything you wrote, but do you mind if I ask what a non-awkward time for furloughs is?

In terms of a desk bid, October 1 is usually part of the yearly bid of most airline dispatch bids. The start of the new year in January usually is when the new desk bid starts. Thus if furloughs started on or around January 1, for example, the new bid would be able to be done without the furloughs taking part in it and thus there wouldn't be the issue of what to do with the desks occupied by the furloughs.

 

[Luigi]

In terms of a desk bid, October 1 is usually part of the yearly bid of most airline dispatch bids. The start of the new year in January usually is when the new desk bid starts. Thus if furloughs started on or around January 1, for example, the new bid would be able to be done without the furloughs taking part in it and thus there wouldn't be the issue of what to do with the desks occupied by the furloughs.

Seems reasonable! Still probably awkward though..

 

[manniax]

Yeah, hopefully furloughs will never not be awkward.

 

[KiloEchoVictor]

Im surprised more on this thread aren't talking about the implications about United sending out 193 WARN letters and Delta, American likely to be following soon with WARN notices to significant percentages of their dispatch groups. I wouldn't be surprised if Southwest ends up sending WARN letters this time.

When are the bosses required to send WARN letters? IIRC it didn't sound like RPA bothered with anything like that, they just furloughed out of the blue

for me it's IT and it's roughly 6 month wait while I knock out a certification.

Wouldn't even know where to start with that...

 

[paincorp]

When are the bosses required to send WARN letters? IIRC it didn't sound like RPA bothered with anything like that, they just furloughed out of the blue

It was posted somewhere, forget where, that there are a few exceptions to when they need to be sent out. I think the limit is 499 or 10% of employees. I think the cuts were just under that.

 

[Squirrel]

It doesn't take a massive furlough to cause a training issues from re-calls. Even a small furlough of 30 would mean needing to free up classroom space and instructors (possibly at OT rates) to teach an initial new hire class if the furlough is longer than a year. If less than a year, you might need recurrent class training depending on when they are re-called. A classroom can only hold so many.

A short furlough can be very costly depending on the timing and contract. The junior dispatchers occupy the work schedule nobody else wants. Typically, midnight lines. Until desks can be re-bid and implemented post furlough, the airline is likely looking at significant OT costs to fill the desks vacated by the furloughs. October 1 is a very awkward time of the year for dispatch furloughs.

Government new calendar year starts October first. That is why the funding only went out that far.

 

[ZapBrannigan]

Hopefully the demand recovers quickly and it's closer to a 3 year wait, but it might not be and I think a lot of people will leave dispatch for this reason. I'm one of them unfortunately. Another 5-10 years to make it to the majors on top of the time I already have is hard to stomach. There are other ways to make as much or more than a new hire dispatcher at a major and I think people will go after that, for me it's IT and it's roughly 6 month wait while I knock out a certification.

Off topic, which IT certification do you think offers the most job opportunities?


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[flynryan692]

Off topic, which IT certification do you think offers the most job opportunities?


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In general, Comptia A+ has the most jobs, if you want good pay then CCNA, AWS and/or Azure certs. The later require some sort of entry level experience to get you a job though.

 

[WXDispatch]

So I only managed to get a half of a year of experience before COVID killed my job, what's the likelihood I'll be hired anywhere with a flood of far more "experienced" dispatchers?

(also I think judging people solely off of the number of years they have been performing a job is a horrid approach, I worked with plenty of guys with lots of experience who broke FARs on the daily)

 

[azmedic]

So I only managed to get a half of a year of experience before COVID killed my job, what's the likelihood I'll be hired anywhere with a flood of far more "experienced" dispatchers?

(also I think judging people solely off of the number of years they have been performing a job is a horrid approach, I worked with plenty of guys with lots of experience who broke FARs on the daily)

You’d be better off writing down that number for that truck driving school...TruckMasters I think it is.


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[WXDispatch]

You’d be better off writing down that number for that truck driving school...TruckMasters I think it is.


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Glad I wasted all those years in college

 

[Squirrel]

So I only managed to get a half of a year of experience before COVID killed my job, what's the likelihood I'll be hired anywhere with a flood of far more "experienced" dispatchers?

(also I think judging people solely off of the number of years they have been performing a job is a horrid approach, I worked with plenty of guys with lots of experience who broke FARs on the daily)

Experience isnt everything knowledge and attitude is big factors too. Just dont think you wont have a chance.

 

[shutdown]

Im surprised more on this thread aren't talking about the implications about United sending out 193 WARN letters and Delta, American likely to be following soon with WARN notices to significant percentages of their dispatch groups. I wouldn't be surprised if Southwest ends up sending WARN letters this time.

If United, AA, Delta, Southwest furlough even 60-100 each, the effect on the careers of many will be devastating. Not only for those that will be out of a job but those wanting to advance to the majors will likely see a much longer wait. In a normal year, 60-100 is a lot of hiring. Just recalling that many will likely take a year or two. If furloughs are in the 150-200 range, it will likely take 3-4 years just to recall everyone when retirements or growth dictate more staffing.

If the other regionals furlough like Republic has, those wanting to get into the business could see a multi-year wait. The era of one year wonders in this business is over for now. I would plan on 5-10 years right now before we see hiring at the big 4. When it does start again, I am not confident that we will be seeing multiple classes of 20-30 every year like we were pre-virus.

AA sending out WARN act notices to 175 dispatchers