Plane from Scottsdale, AZ crashes enroute Telluride

[MikeD]

Macho-itis as well

Could very well be either/or.

Never fully understand why some press a flight that in the big picture of things, is of no priority or emergency or otherwise can wait.

 

[Pépé le Pilot]

I'd do it in the deiced Cirrus I used to fly, on an IFR fltpln otherwise no way.

 

[Cptnchia]

The METAR right there is a no-go for a private, I wonder what went through his mind when loading his prettty wife and kids... I wonder why we spend so much time as CFIs trying to make understand weather minimums when this kind of tragedy happens...

That is a no go for most airplanes. Visible moisture with a temp of 4 and a dew point of 3. That right there is icing conditions. The falling precip would have required at least Type 1 spray down and engine ice on.

 

[Pépé le Pilot]

Absolutely, the Cirrus had the TKS system.

 

[Cptnchia]

I'd do it in the deiced Cirrus I used to fly, on an IFR fltpln otherwise no way.

I'd fly all day in that WX. Of course it's in a Part 25 aircraft capable of Cat III approaches and flight in known icing. Small light single. Nope.

 

[Pépé le Pilot]

That too. I've flown in some pretty intense conditions in Colombia with this plane, and it's fantastically capable. But with a pvt ticket and more money than sense, that's what happens. Very, very sad that 3 people had to loose their lives on top of this guy, a criminal.

 

[z987k]

You guys do realize that Payson was simply en-route right? And in a 210 he could have been on top. Telluride was clear. With the info we have this could have been an engine failure at night on top as much as trying to stay below the weather.

 

[uncreative]

You guys do realize that Payson was simply en-route right? And in a 210 he could have been on top. Telluride was clear. With the info we have this could have been an engine failure at night on top as much as trying to stay below the weather.

Does that much difference? Non-instrument rated pilot flying VFR over the top of LIFR mountainous terrain at night with icing conditions single engine seems very risky to me.

 

[z987k]

Does that much difference? Non-instrument rated pilot flying VFR over the top of LIFR mountainous terrain at night with icing conditions single engine seems very risky to me.

If you're on top, there's no icing.

It just seams like everyone looked at that one metar in the general area of where the crash was and made a bunch of assumptions on that. Despite that was not his origin or destination. It's one thing to attempt to take off and land in that, but that's not what happened.

 

[Cptnchia]

He could have been on top, or not. We'll have to wait and see. However, considering the WX I was flying in not too far away was solid overcast to almost FL320, its possible they weren't.

 

[Fireflights]

Even if he was VFR on top, with severe clear conditions at both ends of the trip, he had no VFR conditions below him when something happened.
Hence, no VFR divert point, no VFR enroute alternate, and no VFR conditions below in case of engine failure.
We're supposed to keep an option open for when things go wrong.
In this case, flying VFR on top left no option other than an emergency off-field landing in LIFR conditions.

 

[z987k]

Even if he was VFR on top, with severe clear conditions at both ends of the trip, he had no VFR conditions below him when something happened.
Hence, no VFR divert point, no VFR enroute alternate, and no VFR conditions below in case of engine failure.
We're supposed to keep an option open for when things go wrong.
In this case, flying VFR on top left no option other than an emergency off-field landing in LIFR conditions.

I mean... ya. Flying has risks. If this was on top with an engine failure it really wouldn't have mattered what the weather was at night. Likely the same outcome even severe clear.

 

[MikeD]

I mean... ya. Flying has risks. If this was on top with an engine failure it really wouldn't have mattered what the weather was at night. Likely the same outcome even severe clear.

True. Just comes down to the amount of risk one is willing to accept.

I used to fly that area regularly in the early 90s when I had a 135 cargo route in a T207 that took me P19 (next to CHD)-SOW-SJN, and return. And a parallel route from P19-PAN-INW-RQE, and return. Many nights the WX over the Mogollon Rim country would be solid undercast, with it being generally VFR in the PHX area, and either VFR or MVFR in the north/east AZ areas. Flying night unaided, above/around and the WX on a VFR flightplan, or through the WX on an IFR flightplan as necessary was the norm. If something occurred with the powerplant or something else where I couldn't stay airborne, I was headed into a black hole no matter what: be it granite darkness underneath me, or granite darkness underneath me topped with an overcast deck. Heck it was so dark, it oftentimes wasn't always apparent when in or out of IMC unless the landing light was turned on momentarily.

But that was the job. What I was being paid to do. The mission itself wasn't a critical priority, but it was the mission assigned and those were the tools we were given to accomplish it.

In a case where it's a pleasure flight, ie-nothing of any critical importance, I would think the accepted risk would be lower; but again, that varies pilot to pilot.

Sometimes, you hit a 7 of the dice before you hit the point number. Sometimes you don't.

Unless you like risk, and play the Don't Pass line......

 

[sweeps]

You guys do realize that Payson was simply en-route right? And in a 210 he could have been on top. Telluride was clear. With the info we have this could have been an engine failure at night on top as much as trying to stay below the weather.

It appears it was a 930am departure according to another article. Not that it had an affect on the weather. Just pointing it out. Maybe it was crappy low level and clear on either side of the mountains as you and @MikeD have alluded to.

 

[U_of_I_Tweak]

I mean... ya. Flying has risks. If this was on top with an engine failure it really wouldn't have mattered what the weather was at night. Likely the same outcome even severe clear.

Did you get the memo?

Unless the decedent pilot is a "professional," the mo is to read the [sarcasm]exhaustively [/sarcasm] researched ABC article, find a shred of evidence that supports your position, and then decry the pilot as a murderer. A year later when the facts are known, everyone will have forgotten.

I'll send another copy of the memo.

Between this crash, and the CJ4 at BKL, I've learned that apparently pilots become pretty amazing once they earn a paycheck flying, and are a danger to society before that.

If you can't do something smart, do something right

 

[MikeD]

Between this crash, and the CJ4 at BKL, I've learned that apparently pilots become pretty amazing once they earn a paycheck flying, and are a danger to society before that.

That definitely wasn't my position in my post at least. Mine was merely regarding where certain risks are worthwhile vs not worthwhile. Me personally, risks I'd take on the job for a getting a particular mission done, would be different from risks of going to somewhere for convenience or pleasure, with no real priority or criticality involved. And the measure of how those risks are assumed or what particulars people will deem worthy, will vary.

 

[Cptnchia]

Did you get the memo?

Unless the decedent pilot is a "professional," the mo is to read the [sarcasm]exhaustively [/sarcasm] researched ABC article, find a shred of evidence that supports your position, and then decry the pilot as a murderer. A year later when the facts are known, everyone will have forgotten.

I'll send another copy of the memo.

Between this crash, and the CJ4 at BKL, I've learned that apparently pilots become pretty amazing once they earn a paycheck flying, and are a danger to society before that.

If you can't do something smart, do something right

Nice try, but that's not what is happening. This is just another example of a pilot getting into a position well beyond their ability. Happens all the time.

I know for myself, that the stupidest stuff I did in an airplane was when I had a few hundred hours. Thankfully I learned I wasn't as smart as I thought, and I survived that period without hurting or killing anyone.

 

[z987k]

Nice try, but that's not what is happening. This is just another example of a pilot getting into a position well beyond their ability. Happens all the time.

I know for myself, that the stupidest stuff I did in an airplane was when I had a few hundred hours. Thankfully I learned I wasn't as smart as I thought, and I survived that period without hurting or killing anyone.

It probably is. But you're basing all that off of nothing but a metar? Because that's the only facts out right now.

 

[Cptnchia]

It probably is. But you're basing all that off of nothing but a metar? Because that's the only facts out right now.

Possibly, but based on many years of investigating accidents, my gut feeling is that they had some sort of mechanical issue, attempted to divert in MVFR or even IFR conditions, and quickly got overwhelmed. Much like JFK Jr. It only takes a moment.

I'll be very interested in the final analysis of this accident.

 

[FlyingAccountant]

Possibly, but based on many years of investigating accidents, my gut feeling is that they had some sort of mechanical issue, attempted to divert in MVFR or even IFR conditions, and quickly got overwhelmed. Much like JFK Jr. It only takes a moment.

I'll be very interested in the final analysis of this accident.

Looking at his flight history, he went for an 11 minute flight on 12/26 out of SDL and back. Wonder if he had a mechanical problem and had to come back.....