1500hr Rule - Do you think the industry will adjust? If so, how?

Autothrust Blue said:
Doesn't anybody work and pay their way through anymore?
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No. It's somewhat of a bad investment to. I'd be in a better position if I'd not gotten student loans and somehow been able to make enough money to finish in the same amount of time - but that's not how it works. After I had a "trade" - my Commercial, I went from making $80/day (so it'd take me more than a day to pay for a flight) to making $150/day. I doubled my income - essentially over night. I took pay hits to get turbine time, etc. But my average wage since I started has been around $40,000/ year - and that's with two and a half years making barely anything in the lower 48 states. My Alaska flying pay has never been below $45,000 per year after my first year in the business.

If I'd have had to pay for that flying without loans - where I'd have a lesson of about 1.2 every 3 weeks - I still wouldn't have enough time to get my commercial. Now let's say that theoretically I got raises and managed to make $15/hr or about $120/day - and I worked through that, I might just now be finishing or maybe finished a year ago or so. Because I went and got loans for my training, I've been able to live comfortably, "follow my aviation dreams," travel the world and get a whole host of other life experiences that were well worth it. On top of that, I'm "more experienced," than I otherwise would be, and my options for retirement are much better. Where I sit now, I could theoretically retire in about 20 years. If I would have paid through by myself, I'd just be starting and I'd be looking at another 6 or 7 years before I would be making the kind of money to start projecting where I could end up in 20 years. In reality, that means the difference between being able to retire at 45 to 50 and retiring at 50 to 60. I don't want to be flying 1000hrs a year when I'm 55 - no thanks, and by "not getting into debt" I've traded working until I'm 60 with a bit of debt in my youth. It's a fair trade in my opinion.
 
ppragman said:
I don't want to be flying 1000hrs a year when I'm 55 - no thanks, and by "not getting into debt" I've traded working until I'm 60 with a bit of debt in my youth. It's a fair trade in my opinion.
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Truth. I'm carrying a fair amount of student loan debt...more than I'd like...but it's a tool that's gotten me where I'm at much earlier than if I'd paid out of pocket (I'd probably still be working on ratings; that junk isn't cheap!). Higher earnings earlier in life easily offset the loan payments.
 
dasleben said:
Truth. I'm carrying a fair amount of student loan debt...more than I'd like...but it's a tool that's gotten me where I'm at much earlier than if I'd paid out of pocket (I'd probably still be working on ratings; that junk isn't cheap!). Higher earnings earlier in life easily offset the loan payments.
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That's exactly it - now at the time, I didn't think about that, it was more like, "WANNA FLY WANNA FLY WANNA FLY WANNA FLY!!!" but it's been a good move economically for me thus far. Technically speaking, it's also generally cheaper to pay the interest on your loans and take online classes to further your education than it is to pay the actual loans - so if you're trying to save as much money as you can, keep going to school and get them deferred for 6 credits a semester (unless you got evil SallyMae or whatever with no deferment period).
 
Autothrust Blue said:
As habitually the youngest or nearly youngest kid in the room at two 121s in a row (but not Gulley young), "does it matter?" is a good answer.
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More than you know. Why else would there be age requirements for Commercial and ATP Certificates? Or to be President?

Trust me- you'll see things differently in a decade. There are matters of experience and biochemistry in play here.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
No, unlikely. If the economics were different, the pilot supply would change though.
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Exactly my point. The 1500 rule will not only change the way pilots and airlines look at training and accumulation of experience, but at the economic aspect as well. The cultural changes accompanying both aspects will improve life for pilots and the quality of the environment in which they make decisions as well.
 
Firebird2XC said:
Exactly my point. The 1500 rule will not only change the way pilots and airlines look at training and accumulation of experience, but at the economic aspect as well.
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How will it change the way airlines look at training? They can't train 1500 hours.

In a few years, airlines will need to deal with having a supply capped at 1,000 new pilots/year. Without the ATP rule, there could theoretically be 4 times that. Eventually, that won't be enough.

I don't think the math will work out. My guess, they lobby congress for an ab-initio indentured servant exemption, or lobby congress for H1-B visas to hire foreign pilots. I also suspect they will prefer foreigners - it would be cheaper.
 
Firebird2XC said:
More than you know. Why else would there be age requirements for Commercial and ATP Certificates? Or to be President?

Trust me- you'll see things differently in a decade. There are matters of experience and biochemistry in play here.
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I'm very interested in seeing the FAA's stand point on this when they reveal the new ATP requirements....
 
Ziggyfuzz said:
Indeed will be interesting to see if there are any regionals left in 15years after the majors are finished cleaning out the qualified people that they need. The American pipeline is dry unless they start going the way of the Europeans as some others on this thread have mentioned, and start sponsoring endentured servants for regional pay for the first 25 years of their career.
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... the rest of the world is running dry also. The world will have to start making airline flying worthwhile again to attract people. Hooray for economics!

Then, when demand picks up, people will start showing up for flight school again. It'll all equalize.
 
Mike H said:
Naturally, the question wasn't "how will you hire & retain quality people and stay in business?" because few senators think any farther than the TV cameras. In reality, they were hiring quality people for the most part; they weren't retaining many of them, because, absent political meddling, they were finding ways to advance their careers, and, more importantly, few of the regionals will be able to stay in business under the new rules because there's a limit to what passengers will pay for airline service
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... and this limit is? People pay the cheapest available of what the market offers. If costs go up universally, people pay the lowest of that.

Years ago, IIRC, it was Bob Crandall who called up his peers and said "Hey, I'm gonna raise fares. How about you do the same at the same time, and we can all make some money?" He got called out on this later, yes, but the concept was the same- a totally free market based airline industry means everybody bleeds the same amount. Why bleed at all?
 
Firebird2XC said:
More than you know. Why else would there be age requirements for Commercial and ATP Certificates? Or to be President?

Trust me- you'll see things differently in a decade. There are matters of experience and biochemistry in play here.
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Meh. I don't agree with any of that nonsense. I had somewhere around 3500 to 4000hrs when I was 23, I'd have been fine at 20 and 1500hrs. It's an ATP, it's not even that hard of a rating to get for fs sake. It doesn't make you "super duper sky-god." On top of that, age is a poor indicator of quality - there are plenty of guys who are in their 30s who I wouldn't let borrow my car - let alone fly an airplane. There are age limits for ATPs and Presidents because someone, somewhere said, "well? what's the limit going to be?" and someone else said, "How about 16 to solo, 17 for a private, 18 for a commercial, and 23 for an ATP?" I sincerely doubt there was any science done - which is how this sort of thing should be determined - rather it was all anecdotal hunches done by people who didn't have their crap together when they were 20.

tl;dr You know who thinks age related discrimination is reasonable thing? People who didn't have their crap together when they were that age.
 
Firebird2XC said:
You have no idea. And you never will.
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Teach me oh wise one!



Before I come across as someone with a bad attitude, I'm always willing to learn from those more experienced that I am. Do I know everything? Hell no. Am I eager to learn from those who can teach me? Hell yes.

But the attitude thing is a two way street. If you immediately come out swinging and with a generally demeaning attitude towards those you view as "below you", well, few people are really going to care to listen to you long enough to hear your input.


But anyway, it's my Friday, I think I'll go buy some beer.
 
JordanD said:
Teach me oh wise one!



Before I come across as someone with a bad attitude, I'm always willing to learn from those more experienced that I am. Do I know everything? Hell no. Am I eager to learn from those who can teach me? Hell yes.

But the attitude thing is a two way street. If you immediately come out swinging and with a generally demeaning attitude towards those you view as "below you", well, few people are really going to care to listen to you long enough to hear your input.


But anyway, it's my Friday, I think I'll go buy some beer.
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Careful baby-face, they might not think you're old enough - better bring your ID! ;)
 
JordanD said:
Teach me oh wise one!



Before I come across as someone with a bad attitude, I'm always willing to learn from those more experienced that I am. Do I know everything? Hell no. Am I eager to learn from those who can teach me? Hell yes.

But the attitude thing is a two way street. If you immediately come out swinging and with a generally demeaning attitude towards those you view as "below you", well, few people are really going to care to listen to you long enough to hear your input.


But anyway, it's my Friday, I think I'll go buy some beer.
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You should take your own advice. Don't choke on your High life.
 
Firebird2XC said:
You should take your own advice. Don't choke on your High life.
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Original post: (Clearly posted in 100% seriousness!)
JordanD said:
What a dong swinging contest this is turning into. Can't hire low time pilots because they drool on themselves and will crash planes full of old grannies into schools full of puppies. You can have 1500 hours but it has to be the right kind of 1500 hours otherwise you can't adapt to a new job right off the bat and you suck.

We should just welcome UAVs that way people can stop developing intense hatreds of one another over the internet and have a beer with each other.
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Your response:
Are you old enough to buy beer?
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Draw your own conclusions.
 
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