1500hr Rule - Do you think the industry will adjust? If so, how?

Firebird2XC said:
It would, if all pilots were operating like type equipment with similar experience levels at all ages.

When I was 16, I drove a 2 axle car with a V6 engine. Now that I'm 34, same thing. For many pilots, the nature of the aircraft they might operate as a student pilot at 16 and a professional career pilot at 34 would most likely be greatly varied.
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That's why you would only compare equivalent time.

Firebird2XC said:
The problem with this is assuming that all other cockpit crewmembers are created equal.

How do you know if the problem was the individual, or the crew dynamic? Sampling from real world events would seem to be fraught with endless additional variables.
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So if there's no way of quantifying an increase in safety from an ATP age limit, why impose one?

I'm not sure whether I support an age limit or not, because I haven't seen any data specifically relating age to safety. I certainly wouldn't base one on an argument that "in general, it feels like older people are more mature/cautious/experienced" if there's already experience requirements for the certificate.
 
Beats me. Because a psychologist quantified a related l
zmiller4 said:
That's why you would only compare equivalent time.



So if there's no way of quantifying an increase in safety from an ATP age limit, why impose one?

I'm not sure whether I support an age limit or not, because I haven't seen any data specifically relating age to safety. I certainly wouldn't base one on an argument that "in general, it feels like older people are more mature/cautious/experienced" if there's already experience requirements for the certificate.
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... I don't know. Because a psychologist suggested a related level of emotional maturity and emotional intelligence? There is, you know.
 
Ask an insurance actuary about the relative safety of drivers of various ages. As I understand it, they already "sandbag" older drivers to keep younger ones on the street...causing mayhem and generally being stupid, for the most part. Uh, I mean operating their vehicle responsibly so they can get to work. *cough*.
 
Boris Badenov said:
Ask an insurance actuary about the relative safety of drivers of various ages. As I understand it, they already "sandbag" older drivers to keep younger ones on the street...causing mayhem and generally being stupid, for the most part. Uh, I mean operating their vehicle responsibly so they can get to work. *cough*.
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Young pilots generally fly aircraft the same way young drivers drive cars.
 
Firebird2XC said:
Beats me. Because a psychologist quantified a related l

... I don't know. Because a psychologist suggested a related level of emotional maturity and emotional intelligence? There is, you know.
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Absolutely. But is there a strong enough correlation between emotional intelligence and age to justify drawing a hard line at 23 in addition to experience requirements? In a brief search for age/emotional intelligence relationships, the only thing I found was from a seemingly unscientific study that showed a very slight, steady increase in EI from the 20s through 50s. I'd be interested to see broader work pertaining to that correlation.

Boris Badenov said:
Ask an insurance actuary about the relative safety of drivers of various ages. As I understand it, they already "sandbag" older drivers to keep younger ones on the street...causing mayhem and generally being stupid, for the most part. Uh, I mean operating their vehicle responsibly so they can get to work. *cough*.
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The difference (in my mind) is that it's tough to make it to several thousand hours incident-free if you fly like a stereotypical 19 year old male drives. I've certainly flown with pilots who I wish were a little more cautious, but their age distribution seemed to be random.

I'll admit, though, that when I was commuting from Chicago to NC with a huge line of weather, I always felt a little better in the back of an AA or UAL aircraft than a regional...but that was related more to experience than age.
 
zmiller4 said:
Absolutely. But is there a strong enough correlation between emotional intelligence and age to justify drawing a hard line at 23 in addition to experience requirements? In a brief search for age/emotional intelligence relationships, the only thing I found was from a seemingly unscientific study that showed a very slight, steady increase in EI from the 20s through 50s. I'd be interested to see broader work pertaining to that correlation.

The difference (in my mind) is that it's tough to make it to several thousand hours incident-free if you fly like a stereotypical 19 year old male drives. I've certainly flown with pilots who I wish were a little more cautious, but their age distribution seemed to be random.

I'll admit, though, that when I was commuting from Chicago to NC with a huge line of weather, I always felt a little better in the back of an AA or UAL aircraft than a regional...but that was related more to experience than age.
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There's a comfort to be had in the hands of the "wise old Captain". But really, this debate won't make any headway unless we determine exactly why the ATP requires a pilot to be 23 or older to begin with. There might be a reason- or a backstory- that we haven't even considered.

I've heard on a few occasions pilots lament something as 'arbitrary' or 'random' when there was actually a scientific reason behind the issue's workings. I see that working here- I'm inclined to see the merit in either argument- but until I see the original data that determined the rule, I see no point in reinventing the wheel.
 
I think people should start providing where they are getting their facts from. Lots of "facts" but no reference to websites or studies. One can not insert "statistics say" in their posts without providing where they got in from.
 
DragonStar45 said:
I think people should start providing where they are getting their facts from. Lots of "facts" but no reference to websites or studies. One can not insert "statistics say" in their posts without providing where they got in from.
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Source?
 
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