1500hr Rule - Do you think the industry will adjust? If so, how?

drunkenbeagle said:
My thought experiment was as to the steady-state replacement rate of pilots given 1500 and current aggregate instruction hours in the US.

There may well be pilots that will move around, but eventually equilibrium will be reached.

Over time, given 1,000 new pilots/year, that would cap the air line pilot population at 40,000, which would support about 4,000 airframes. We have over 7,000 now.

Of course, instruction hours will pick up if there is a "pilot shortage." Which would increase the pilot supply, but not by much - it would take 10 new students to mint 1 airline-hireable instructor.
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I think that time frame is a couple of decades away. I wish I knew the average regional pilot age, but I can't imagine it is much higher than 45. Even if it is 45, then that is 20 years worth of pilot pool that the majors have.

There is a big problem with new students, but I think those problems are going away. Organizations like the AOPA, SAFE, FSANA and others are really looking at the data and working on problems. I was at the FSANA conference last week, and it looks like the major bank players are getting back into the game. Sallie Mae (ATP has had this, while nearly everyone else got cut off), Wells Fargo, and other banks are starting to lend again.
 
mojo6911 said:
There is a big problem with new students, but I think those problems are going away. Organizations like the AOPA, SAFE, FSANA and others are really looking at the data and working on problems. I was at the FSANA conference last week, and it looks like the major bank players are getting back into the game. Sallie Mae (ATP has had this, while nearly everyone else got cut off), Wells Fargo, and other banks are starting to lend again.
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Doesn't anybody work and pay their way through anymore?
 
Autothrust Blue said:
Doesn't anybody work and pay their way through anymore?
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I did it from 2001-2007. The price has gone up quite a bit since then. To get Private through CMEL and CFI/CFII/MEI is going to run about 50k. That puts it out of reach for most people. To put it in perspective, if you make 50k, you bring home roughly $750 per week after taxes. If you fly 3x per week in an average 172 with average instructor ($160ish per hour?) that is over $500. 67% of you take home pay.

Also, it is the same reason people get loans to go through school.
 
mojo6911 said:
I did it from 2001-2007. The price has gone up quite a bit since then. To get Private through CMEL and CFI/CFII/MEI is going to run about 50k. That puts it out of reach for most people. To put it in perspective, if you make 50k, you bring home roughly $750 per week after taxes. If you fly 3x per week in an average 172 with average instructor ($160ish per hour?) that is over $500. 67% of you take home pay.

Also, it is the same reason people get loans to go through school.
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It can still be done for less that that. And there is no reason you need to fly 3x/week. What the hell is the rush?
 
drunkenbeagle said:
The going to work way
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With what training. You are telling people to go get some sort of high paying job, to pay for flight training. But, they're going to spend money to be qualified to get the job to pay for flight training, no? Long and short, if somebody wants to fly, let them take the loans out. I did, and can say with absolute certainty that I wouldn't be where I am without them.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
It can still be done for less that that. And there is no reason you need to fly 3x/week. What the hell is the rush?
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That is about ideal, especially with other things going on that are taking your attention away from flying. Sure, once you have the private, you can punch holes in the sky whenever you want, but if you are doing any amount of training, it is going to require a 2-3x week commitment to make it effective.

dbrault17 said:
And how does one get a 50k/year job with no other skills, education, or training that has already been paid for?
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Exactly.
 
KSCessnaDriver said:
With what training. You are telling people to go get some sort of high paying job, to pay for flight training. But, they're going to spend money to be qualified to get the job to pay for flight training, no? Long and short, if somebody wants to fly, let them take the loans out. I did, and can say with absolute certainty that I wouldn't be where I am without them.
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But do you like where you are? Haven't heard you say great things about it. The $64,000 question - would you be happier if it took you another year to be where you are, but with no loans?

Making some sacrifices to save, or learn, or do something else isn't always the worst thing. You might end up liking it more than flying. Or appreciating flying more because of it.
 
mojo6911 said:
That is about ideal, especially with other things going on that are taking your attention away from flying. Sure, once you have the private, you can punch holes in the sky whenever you want, but if you are doing any amount of training, it is going to require a 2-3x week commitment to make it effective.
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I have never flown 2-3x/week for any rating. I've never flown with a student that often either. As a teacher, I will agree say that if students opened the books that often, it would help more.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
But do you like where you are? Haven't heard you say great things about it. The $64,000 question - would you be happier if it took you another year to be where you are, but with no loans?

Making some sacrifices to save, or learn, or do something else isn't always the worst thing. You might end up liking it more than flying. Or appreciating flying more because of it.
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A year or two? I would be 10 years behind. I had no job in high school, I was too busy with other things academically. I had zero money coming out of high school, other than what the family had saved for college for me.

Do I like where I'm at right now, no. Can you talk down to me because I want people to know the truth about the job on here, no. A few years of not enjoying what I do to pay off those loans was the best thing I ever did.

drunkenbeagle said:
I have never flown 2-3x/week for any rating. I've never flown with a student that often either. As a teacher, I will agree say that if students opened the books that often, it would help more.
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Do you train career students or recreational students? Every person I've known that ended up doing it for a career has flown at least 2x a week, or ended up spending way more than they needed to. You simply forget too much if you don't, is my opinion.
 
KSCessnaDriver said:
A year or two? I would be 10 years behind. I had no job in high school, I was too busy with other things academically.

Do I like where I'm at right now, no. Can you talk down to me because I want people to know the truth about the job on here, no. A few years of not enjoying what I do to pay off those loans was the best thing I ever did.



Do you train career students or recreational students? Ever person I've known that ended up doing it for a career has flown at least 2x a week, you simply forget too much if you don't, is my opinion.
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I'm not trying to talk down to anyone, my apologies if I gave that impression.

I train pilots. Where they end up working makes no difference, but I am sure some younger ones may make a living flying. More than one already has that I have taught, not directly because of me.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
I'm not trying to talk down to anyone, my apologies if I gave that impression.

I train pilots. Where they end up working makes no difference, but I am sure some younger ones may make a living flying. More than one already has that I have taught, not directly because of me.
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Fair enough. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy the flying I do. It's the rest of the garbage that goes with the job that kills it.

That said, it just isn't possible, IMO, for a kid to come out of high school these days and expect them to be able to get some sort of job that would pay for them to not go in debt with school and flying. It may be possible, in a decades long process, but is that really something you're going to tell a kid who wants to be a pilot to do? Waste half his life on something he doesn't want to do?
 
Autothrust Blue said:
Experience not typical, void where prohibited, and it will take you longer. I'm not sure why everyone's in a big damn hurry anyway.
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Meh, depends on what you're after. Had I busted my butt a little harder I would probably actually have a flying job instead of instructing once a week, but that's the way it is.
 
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