1500hr Rule - Do you think the industry will adjust? If so, how?

jtrain609 said:
Nobody is saying that. Like always in life, there are no guarantees.
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Actually, some are saying exactly that. And no, I don't mean Hacker

But you're more likely to have better airmanship with more hours.
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I never said it wasn't more likely, just that it's not a guarantee. Sure, more experience is generally a good thing, but at some point, however desireable it may be, extra experience isn't really required for the job
 
I am not sure when the law kicks in but some time before that all airlines will require 1500 hours to interview.

The one thing I know for sure is CFIs will stick around another year or so and it might be harder to get CFI jobs. Other than that I don't see much change, except the bottom feeders that would have hired at 250 hours will have to raise their pay or may go out of business.
 
Boris Badenov said:
Who DO you mean? To wit, your strawman was "mega hours (necessarily) = mega airmanship". Now you're making the claim that "some are saying exactly that". Who? Use quotes.
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Try reading the first 6 pages of this thread and you'll see exactly who is saying that. If the word "mega" bothers you, take it out of the equation. Hours flown does not equate to airmanship. Feel better now?
 
Firebird2XC said:
You're forgetting an important thing- 9/11.. and maybe a few others. The massive bankruptcy rape that 9/11 brought down on the 121 world seriously bottlenecked lifetime earning potential. The whole reason people ran like rabid lemmings to the regionals in the 90s was promise of fast upgrade, high turnover, and movement up to the majors and the big bucks. Then in the late 90s RJs hit the scene, and the rung in the ladder became a plateau.

9/11 killed the real big bucks in the sky in any rapid fashion. Since then things like the 3407 crash made the economic reality of airline pilots very obvious. I was phone interviewed for Michael Moore's movie segment on how far pilots had fallen economically. Pilots were his canary in the coal mine...

Since financial entities like Sallie Mae got wicked burned by loaning money to aspiring RJ drivers, they don't do it anymore.

There might still be some willing to show up for the gig as-is, but not nearly as many.

If projected airline turnover is as expected at all levels, we'll see an overall loss in the size of the so-called regional airlines.
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Indeed will be interesting to see if there are any regionals left in 15years after the majors are finished cleaning out the qualified people that they need. The American pipeline is dry unless they start going the way of the Europeans as some others on this thread have mentioned, and start sponsoring endentured servants for regional pay for the first 25 years of their career.
 
Mike H said:
Try reading the first 6 pages of this thread and you'll see exactly who is saying that. If the word "mega" bothers you, take it out of the equation. Hours flown does not equate to airmanship. Feel better now?
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Waaait. So if I've got 10 hours, my airmanship there can be equal to my airmanship at 5000 hours?

Do tell!
 
Is Lakes still easily filling classes? I'm confused who would be going there when Republic is hiring with a bonus, Eagle with a bonus, ExpressJet with regional industry leading pay... the list goes on. I think we're already seeing the effects of this rule and it's only going to get worse once the regional airlines actually have to hire more than 10 here and there. Republic is likely going to be in a world of hurt when they start getting the E175s for American. Either that or they're about to get a bunch of current 121 guys tripping over one another for PIC time and Pinnacle will be hiring by October because of the mass exodus.
 
bronco21016 said:
Is Lakes still easily filling classes? I'm confused who would be going there when Republic is hiring with a bonus, Eagle with a bonus, ExpressJet with regional industry leading pay... the list goes on. I think we're already seeing the effects of this rule and it's only going to get worse once the regional airlines actually have to hire more than 10 here and there. Republic is likely going to be in a world of hurt when they start getting the E175s for American. Either that or they're about to get a bunch of current 121 guys tripping over one another for PIC time and Pinnacle will be hiring by October because of the mass exodus.
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XJT has stopped hiring.
 
Ziggyfuzz said:
Indeed will be interesting to see if there are any regionals left in 15years after the majors are finished cleaning out the qualified people that they need. The American pipeline is dry unless they start going the way of the Europeans as some others on this thread have mentioned, and start sponsoring endentured servants for regional pay for the first 25 years of their career.
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There about 4,000,000 hours of dual given per year in the US. Which is about enough to get 3,000 pilots/year to ATP mins. I don't see a shortage on the horizon. And there is a lot of other flying other than just dual given out there.

Granted, there was close to twice the instruction work 20 years ago, but times change. No one got hired to fly jets @250 hours 20 years ago anyway.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
There about 4,000,000 hours of dual given per year in the US. Which is about enough to get 3,000 pilots/year to ATP mins. I don't see a shortage on the horizon. And there is a lot of other flying other than just dual given out there.

Granted, there was close to twice the instruction work 20 years ago, but times change. No one got hired to fly jets @250 hours 20 years ago anyway.
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Just curious, where do you get that figure? Also, dual given includes upgrades, types, and much more than what we are talking about here. And of what we are ralking about, the vast majority recieving dual given for ratings in pursuit of a career are Asians and Europeans. Just my obsefvations from the last ten years of doing checkrides in the busiest state for flight training...
 
Ziggyfuzz said:
Thats great! Still doesn't mean you are or were ready for the responsibility. What was so great about that experience? That it boosted your ego? (Confidence) Confidence is great and all, but when it is coupled with lack of good decision making (which is a cornerstone of airmanship), that kind of confidence makes one deadly.
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I mentioned nothing of ego boosting...not really sure where you are going with that. And yes it was a lesson in good decision making in that I was put into a scenario I had never seen before and given the opportunity to learn from it.
 
Ziggyfuzz said:
Just curious, where do you get that figure? Also, dual given includes upgrades, types, and much more than what we are talking about here. And of what we are ralking about, the vast majority recieving dual given for ratings in pursuit of a career are Asians and Europeans. Just my obsefvations from the last ten years of doing checkrides in the busiest state for flight training...
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http://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/72392/ICAT REPORT SHETTY.pdf?sequence=

Not a material point about foreign students, as that training is GIVEN by US CFI's. The vast majority of dual given is in fixed wing trainers. And there is plenty of flying that isn't instruction low-timers do.
 
Mike H said:
Try reading the first 6 pages of this thread and you'll see exactly who is saying that. If the word "mega" bothers you, take it out of the equation. Hours flown does not equate to airmanship. Feel better now?
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So true. Hell, Comair at LEX, PSA at CRW accidents were not even issues of airmanship. Following a checklist properly (PSA) and basic procedures such as runway verification/SA (Comair) are two things that are so basic and absolutely essential to safety, yet are independent of flight hours.
 
ClearedToThe said:
So true. Hell, Comair at LEX, PSA at CRW accidents were not even issues of airmanship. Following a checklist properly (PSA) and basic procedures such as runway verification/SA (Comair) are two things that are so basic and absolutely essential to safety, yet are independent of flight hours.
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Actually, both of those ARE directly airmanship issues -- poor SA and procedural errors fall smack in the middle of the realm of airmanship, decsionmaking and judgment. They sure weren't stick-and-rudder errors.
 
If the regionals can't provide the service they are contracted for, the mainline carriers will just take it back, with higher loads and less frequency.
 
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