You are all hired!

Itchy said:
All bunk. I'll believe it when I see it. And the end result may not be what everyone would like.
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true dat. even assuming joe's claim is true that it will take 27.7% more pilots and flight attendants to fly the same planes on the same routes with the same number of passengers it does not necessarily follow that there will be the same number of flights routes or passengers It could very well be that there'll be less of any or all of the three. But at higher costs, of course
 
I know some of you are having trouble with the concept and the math. That is to be expected because the companies are also having trouble with the concept and the math. I recently spoke with an HR recruiter that believes that pilots currently get 8 hours of rest each night and this will just add one hour. So you can see that even now one part of the company may not know what the other part of the company is doing. Maybe it's just the company line. Or maybe they just don't know or don't want to know?

Some of you have correctly pointed out that have lines working for airlines that aren't pushing their crews to the maximum numbers will not be hit as bad. That is correct. However you can have some pilots with minimum lines and some pilots with maximum lines at the same company.

Weather delays and unusual operations WILL affect all pilots no matter what your current rules are now. If you get into your last station late, you will not be able to move that plane again for 11 hours. There is no exception. So if your 8 PM scheduled flight pulls into the city at midnight you aren't going out again until 11 AM because you must have 9 hours rest behind the door.

Reserves tend to get beat up pretty bad now. When the rules change, those types of duty days will be greatly reduced because there will not be an advantage, for the airlines, to keep as many pilots on reserve as possible because their duty day is limited to less than 13 hours.

Some airlines will be hit much harder because of the time of day requirement. The new rules provide for a maximum 13 hour duty day if the crew starts between 7am and 1 pm. That maximum duty day can go down to as little as a 9 hour duty day if the trips start outside of those hours. Late night flights have the least amount of maximum duty hours. All times are started and stopped on your crew base time. If you are based in ATL and you fly a trip starting at LAX you will need to leave LAX between 4AM and 10 AM local time in order to work the maximum 13 hours duty time.

ALPA has a study that was mailed out to the pilots indicating it will take 18%-41% MORE pilots depending upon the time of day that the duty day starts. So in the best case, ALPA's study is saying there will be a minimum of 18% more pilots needed for certain time periods and a maximum of 41% more pilots for other time periods.

I believe our 27% blended rate is pretty close. It's going to be a big number.

Keep in mind that at the present time, the rest period is pushed into the hours that are left over after the flight.

Under the new rules, the rest period MUST be actually taken out of the 24 hour day. You must take the 9 hours behind the door and the 2 hours "in and out time" out of the 24 hour day. The duty day is pushed into hours that are left over after the rest period.

There are some folks that believe these new rules are simply allowing an extra hour of sleep. On paper it might look that way. A pilot is simply going from 8 hours rest to 9 hours rest. The problem with that theory is that currently the pilots are not getting 8 hours rest because of the way the airlines have been able to calculate the duty times and the rest times.

The new rules will put every airline on a level playing field. This is good for the industry, the pilots and the passengers.

I'm just surprised that no one else seems to have figured this out.

Joe
 
I'm getting some more questions on this. One involves the amount of time for the crew to get back and forth to the hotel.

We have used an average of an hour on each end for the clock time. It's going to be pretty close. You might be able to shave 15 minutes off of each end depending on the location. However it's more likely that it will take more than an hour when you count everything that has to go into the trip.

What I am being told is that each city, that an airline serves, will be tested and assigned a travel time number, to and from the hotel room, for these purposes. That number will be determined by each airline as it relates to each crew hotel from the farthest gate used by the airline.

I'm also being told that if the travel time takes longer than the time assigned, the pilot can call crew scheduling when he arrives in his hotel room and let them know the actual time.
 
FLflyer said:
JoeFriday: You are off on so many things here that I can't even begin to address them. Your ideas of duty time are way off, to put it short.
There will be NO increase in pilot hiring due to this law. Did you have drinks with Kit Darby last night or something? Sorry Charlie, try again.

And by the way, our (XJT) contract rules are still stricter than these new FT/DT rules, so the only thing that will happen at XJT is the same number of pilots will be working more and getting paid less. (Less productive trips, Yay!) There will be NO additional hires needed at my company due to this.
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Erm...maybe you haven't ended up with a reduced rest overnight due to Newark going to crap recently, but as far as I can tell, the new rest rules are WAY beyond anything in the XJT contract.
 
As someone mentioned way up there, don't even bother getting the abacus out until a week or two before it goes in to effect. Rules have a funny way of changing when people meet behind locked doors.
 
jtrain609 said:
Erm...maybe you haven't ended up with a reduced rest overnight due to Newark going to crap recently, but as far as I can tell, the new rest rules are WAY beyond anything in the XJT contract.
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Thanks jtrain, I was scratching my head as well.
 
This also doesn't take into account possible scheduling changes on the airlines behalf. They could move a flight back 10 minutes here and another up 10 minutes there just to make things work. They also increased allowed block hours in certain areas which will have an effect, slight as it may be. And all your calculations are based on dutying on at the exact same time every day. If your show time is 5am today, they could just push you back to a 6, 7, or 8am show tomorrow if it worked out better for them.

If 50% of the current duty days were taken to the full 16 hrs then your 27% number would be cut in half to 13.5%. And much less than 50% of my days go to 16 hours and the few that do don't always have less than 11 hours of rest. So again that new 13.5% number would be reduced further. That doesn't even account for the reductions that would take place due to what I said in my first paragraph.
 
JOEFRIDAY2 said:
Therefore under the best case scenerio, it will take 27.7% more pilots and flight attendants to fly the same planes on the same routes with the same number of passengers.
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There is a flaw in your assessment, and that is the assumption that airlines will maintain the same schedule. This new law, in effect, increases operating expenses for the air carrier, with no corresponding increase in revenue. If airlines aren't making money on their current cost structure, what leads you to believe that they will be able to make money with a 27.7% pilot labor cost increase? Also, keep in mind that while the law will go into effect instantaneously, the airlines cannot instantaneously increase their pilot workforce by 27.7%. That takes considerable time (and expense). It seems to me the much more likely scenario is that airlines will cut reduce their flight schedules in the short term to comply. Over time, the airlines may or may not grow back to the level you suggest. But keep in mind that passengers are still only willing to pay X amount of dollars for a ticket, and that does not change because pilots now get "9 hours behind the door."

Also, keep in mind that a good many airlines already have "staged" overnights, whereby crewes are getting 15-16 hours rest period. Not all, but many.
 
Ooo, where do I sign up?! Can I get a loan for a direct seniority number pool? All my dreams are coming true!!!!


/whew....gotta remember to take those Anti-SJS pills....I'm all better now.
 
I'm not sure I got clarification on a couple of points. Or if someone did clarify I didn't understand or didn't see it. Here they are again:

SteveC said:
...

How can an airline require crew members to be at the airport one hour prior to flight, yet not include that one hour in the calculated duty day? I understand that they are not getting PAID for that hour, but I would think that if they are required to be someplace that that time would not be considered "rest", thus would be "duty".

...

There isn't any buffer at the end of a scheduled flight for these duties? As soon as the brake is set the crew is on "rest"?
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Steve that is considered duty. The "check in" time varies airline to airline at somewhere between 30 minutes and 1 hour. There is also a "check-out" period as well, usually 15 minutes, and customs inbound adding another 15 minutes.

At least those are the numbers I've noticed from my ramp days and pops bid packets.
 
So pilots who currently fly the max allowable hours or those who sit reserve will take a pay cut to their already paltry pay? That or work more days to reach the max allowable flight time per month?

I know this wont affect everyone, but for those of us looking to get into the industry at some point in the near future, it is one more thing to consider.
 
SFLAX said:
Where I work, 135/91k if these rule hit us and they think they will, we were told about a 10% increase of staffing. I would assume that would be the same at the airlines, but is that 10% more reserve or lines?
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I was told the same thing. Approximately 10% increase until further details are released.
 
OldTownPilot said:
Steve that is considered duty. The "check in" time varies airline to airline at somewhere between 30 minutes and 1 hour. There is also a "check-out" period as well, usually 15 minutes, and customs inbound adding another 15 minutes.

At least those are the numbers I've noticed from my ramp days and pops bid packets.
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So JOEFRIDAY, are there airlines that actually do this:

JOEFRIDAY2 said:
...

Pilots are usually onboard before any passengers are loaded as they go through pre-flight duties. Flight attendants must be onboard because they must load the passengers. Again, none of this time is paid and in many cases it does not count as part of the duty day. This time often comes out of the pilot and flight attendant rest time.

When the plane lands, it's the same thing all over again. The pay stops when the brake is engaged or the door is open. The duty day also stops when the brake is engaged or the door is open. Of course there are still things to shut down in the cockpit and there are still a plane load of passengers onboard. A flight crew is going to be tied up at least another 20 minutes getting the jet bridge pulled up, the passengers deplaned and the systems shut down. Under current rules, this time also comes out of the pilot and flight attendant rest time.
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....????
 
I don't know squat about 121, but at the 135 companies I've worked for, everyone is very careful to leave a "reasonable" amount of time on the duty log for pre and post-flight duties. Usually around 30 minutes. Granted, an hour would probably be more reasonable (at least preflight), but FWIW, I've never worked for a company at which duty time ends when the brake is set. This may be a function of different POIs, different FSDO fiefdoms and their "interpretations", or just a general "culture difference" between 135 and 121, but it's not like viewing pre and postflight as duty time is unheard of.
 
JrsyGuy said:
This also doesn't take into account possible scheduling changes on the airlines behalf. They could move a flight back 10 minutes here and another up 10 minutes there just to make things work. They also increased allowed block hours in certain areas which will have an effect, slight as it may be. And all your calculations are based on dutying on at the exact same time every day. If your show time is 5am today, they could just push you back to a 6, 7, or 8am show tomorrow if it worked out better for them.

If 50% of the current duty days were taken to the full 16 hrs then your 27% number would be cut in half to 13.5%. And much less than 50% of my days go to 16 hours and the few that do don't always have less than 11 hours of rest. So again that new 13.5% number would be reduced further. That doesn't even account for the reductions that would take place due to what I said in my first paragraph.
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It's going to affect reserves more that standard line pilots. It's going to affect late night flights more than daytime flights. It's going to affect out station flights more than hub flights. It could mean a double crew overnight at an outstation in order to get the 6AM flight out where today a single 11 PM crew takes that same plane out. It will affect some airlines more than other airlines.

We are handicapped in that we don't know what every airline is doing with every line so it is absolutely impossible to calculate what the exact impact will be. We all know that airlines could be more efficient with their schedules. Under the new workrules they will have to be as efficient as possible. That will also affect how this all comes out.

What we do know for sure is that there will be a maximum of a 13 hour duty day and that will include both pre flight and post flight which will not be able to be pushed into rest time.

So as you try to figure out how it will affect you personally, consider how much over that 13 hours of clock time that is currently out of your control. That will be your number.

Joe
 
Keep in mind that this exercise keeps the same planes flying the same passengers on the same routes. There is a general understanding in this industry that they have taken the number of flights down as far as possible to keep the infastructure in place and be able to make a profit.

There will likely be a reduction in flights, at some airlines, simply because those airlines will not have hired enough pilots to fly the same planes with the same passengers on the same routes. So some of the planes will sit on the ground and not fly as many hours. Those same airlines will try to get an extension and will most likely fail because other airlines will meet the August 1, 2011 date.

Airlines will a lot of reserves are going to get hit hard as those reserves are even more restricted on their flight hours than pilots that can hold a line. There is now a major incentive to get those reserves off of reserve and into a lineholder position since lineholders can work the maximum 13 hour duty day.

There will not be a 27.7% pilot labor cost increase.

There will be an increase because of the benefits packages and there are going to be some limited number of extra hours that just creep into the system as this transition is put in place. Keep in mind that no additional hours are being added to the schedules. The airlines are already paying pilots to fly these very same hours at a higher price per hour because the pilots have been in those seats for many years. The hours will just be switched from one overworked pilot to one of the new hires who are paid less per hour.

Joe
 
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