Where's everyone going?

[DE727UPS]

Well. Good for him and good for you if that's what you want. How many of the rest of you out there would be happy being an RJ Capt and 60K a year, in today's dollars, until age 60? Personally, I think he's nuts for not going to CO given the chance, especially without a degree he's not going to get any other chances with a major. But, to each his own....

 

[DE727UPS]

"SO you don't have to stay in the regionals for very long as regional pilot if you don't want to. Just had a close friend of mine get hired on by Southwest earlier this year!"

And I just helped a friend get on at UPS. The picture you are painting about the industry is way to optimisic but in line with what I'd expect out of someone at DCA. We'll see, only time will tell, ask me again in ten years.

 

[SteveC]

steve c

i still want to know whats so bad about the regional growth for someone coming in? i realize that i will never make the 350k that delta pilots could get up to only 2 years ago but it still seems like the payscale will go pretty high to me.

I didn't say that the regional growth was a bad thing when looked at from the viewpoint of a new pilot.

I said (or implied, actually) that the regional growth at the expense of mainline pilot jobs is bad for the piloting profession. It's just a Big Picture commentary is all.

 

[hobo]

thats cool. i wouldnt want to be one of the guys with 20 years in at delta wondering if my pension, benefits, pay and job will still be there next week.

 

[SteveC]

thats cool. i wouldnt want to be one of the guys with 20 years in at delta wondering if my pension, benefits, pay and job will still be there next week.

That ties in to my point as well. If you look ahead 20 years with the way the industry is changing right now, can you see how people of your generation could very well be facing similar circumstances, but without the financial standing that 20 years of mainline pay and benefits have given the current crop of pilots facing (possible) dire conditions in their employment? Uncertainty has always been part of the piloting profession, but at least in years past there was some upside (great pay & retirements) if you could survive your way through the mergers and closings. Today, the same uncertainty but with the distinct disadvantage of much lower pay scales to go with it.

Yeah, I know....too much gloom and doom for the starry eyed youngsters out there. Sorry, but it isn't the same industry that it was in years past. Probably never will be.

My intention in talking about the downside of the industry today is not necessarily to discourage people, but to get the newbies to open their eyes to the problems that are being created down the road by what is happening today. The sooner that the new guys can get a good look at the *big picture*, the sooner that there will be more guys working to help change things for the better. The difficult part is that it takes a long view and some serious altruistic actions to overcome the (perfectly normal) self-centered pilot's attitudes that gives the J.O.'s of the world all the ammunition that they need to kill our profession. Growth in the regionals at the expense of the mainline carriers is not a good thing, unless the standard of living at the regionals can be brought up to a reasonable level for the expertise and professionalism involved.

 

[DE727UPS]

"My intention in talking about the downside of the industry today is not necessarily to discourage people, but to get the newbies to open their eyes to the problems that are being created down the road by what is happening today"

Hey...I wanna make that my motto.

Well said and I couldn't agree with you more.

 

[hobo]

hopefully over the next 20 years enough ceos will take their heads out of their asses and look at southwest. good pay for pilots still profitable for them. seems pretty simple. just got to get airlines like us aiways that was flying 18 half full flights a day into three different airports within a 40 mile area of upstate new york. population less than 100k. i rode on those flight for less than 200 dollars round trip and there would usually be no one in my row on a 200 passenger jet. some of the time i could count on my fingers the other passengers. management needs to figure out that its dumb to fly that flight. switching to 3 regional jets for one 757 isnt going to be profitable unless management changes their style so that planes are full.

 

[tomahawk1]

A GAO report in 1996 found that the average fare per passenger mile was about 9 percent lower in 1994 than in 1979. Between 1976 and 1990 the paid fare had declined approximately 30 percent in inflation-adjusted terms. Passenger loads have risen, partly because airlines can now transfer larger aircraft to busier routes and replace them with smaller ones on shorter, low-traffic routes.

However, these benefits of deregulation have not been evenly distributed through the national air transportation network. Costs have fallen more dramatically on heavily trafficked, longer-distance routes than on shorter, lighter ones.

Exposure to competition led to heavy losses and conflicts with labor unions at a number of carriers. Between 1978 and mid-2001 nine major carriers (including Eastern, Midway, Braniff, Pan Am, Continental, America West Airlines, and TWA) and over 100 smaller airlines had gone bankrupt or been liquidated—including most of the dozens of new airlines founded in deregulation's aftermath. Mergers and acquisitions among the survivors have created a "Big Six" club of "mega-carriers" and oligopolistic conditions in many markets.

"Perhaps part of my problem is I see how this profession was 20 years ago and hate to see it going down the toilet. If I was just getting started and didn't know how it used to be, I might have lower expectations out of this career and see the good in all the shiny new jets."-DE727

How good it used to be 20 years ago??? I believe most of these airlines are now gone. They left many pilots on the streets with pink slips and not furloughs!! SO how good was it??? (retorical)

 

[DE727UPS]

Wow. Now we are down to quoting government statistics.

How it was 20 years ago was you accepted the up cycles and the down cycles. Some of the airlines the report you're are quoting did go away. For example, half my class was Braniff II, now they are at UPS with a good contract. Back in the day, if your airline folded, at least you could try to get on somewhere else since all the airlines flying Boeings were pretty good jobs. Other airlines you mention in your government statistics are still around and their seniority lists held together. Did you know America West flew Dash 8's in house back in they day?

The way it is now, the pay and benefits for flying Boeings and Airbusi is trending downward and regional growth is treading upward. Problem is, and I'm guessing here, is that career expectations at a regional would be about half that of a major. The fact that they are coming closer together at the expense of the larger airlines isn't a good thing, either.

Go over to flightinfo and see what's going on. Mesaba is furloughing and there is speculation Comair will as well. Go Jet's, an alter ego of TSA, sorta like Freedom Air, is flying 70 seaters to bring DOWNWARD pressure on the TSA pilot group's contract. Yeah, lot's of jobs at Go-Jet. You might be able to sell a newbie looking at DCA that those new jobs are a great thing...I don't think so....

I encourage people who want to fly to enter this career field. I just want them to see what's going on before they make the jump. They need to come to jetcareers or flightinfo instead of believing the DCA marketing BS.

Anyone who questions my opinion vs Tomahawk, take a look around this site, or flightinfo, and see what people who are actually airline pilots have to say. It's funny how it differs so much from those who are CFI's at a big academy or those on the outside looking in. By doing some research, you can decide for yourself how things are and then have accurate expectations for down the road. I'd rather see you shoot low and be pleasantly surprised that go in thinking things are like Tomahawk says and be dissapointed.

 

[tomahawk1]

"Anyone who questions my opinion vs Tomahawk"

What I have posted is not opinions. They are cited facts and figure's from ATW, Regional Airline Association, Airline Monitor and (yes) Air Inc. Yours are opinions and should be take that way. I know there is negative news in the industry. I am do not deny that. My point is that that people can get negative news all the time. This industry has never been perfect and never will. It hasn't been so perfect over the last 20 years and will definately make a lot of changes. It has too. But look at the glass half full. The simple fact is that people get into this industry for one main reason: The love of flying. I think that people who are in the industry who want to 'mentor' others, should show them some of the more positives aspects of the industry and where it is heading as well as the realities. Sure it is not perfect now. What industry is right now? Since you are a pilot, and claim to mentor young people and aspiring pilots, then give them stats that prove they have a good chance at being successful. That's my point. I love this industry and aviation. It is my passion and will always be. I have to adapt to the changes but I try to be optimistic (cautiously of course).

 

[DE727UPS]

"They are cited facts and figure's from ATW, Regional Airline Association, Airline Monitor and (yes) Air Inc."

OMG. Now I understand more clearly where you are coming from. Not only are you not an airline pilot, which would make what you say somewhat more credible, but you consider the above organizations to be "factual'? YGBSM...

RAA is made up of Regional airline managment, you think that's a credible place for FACTS? Air Inc? OH PLEASE.

And you discount my argument because it's opinion but you have a better argument because you rely on the facts of an Air Inc and RAA?

Look. On of my favorite daily aviation news sources is ata smartbrief. It's put out by the ATA, which is about as bad as RAA when you look at who's involved in it. On the other hand, all they are doing is collecting news stories and putting them together in one place, so I guess I can tolerate the ATA for that. On a daily basis, there is more bad news than good these days. There's a fact for you. Sign up. http://www.smartbrief.com/ata/index.jsp

I'm not the pessimest you think but I'm more passionate about people entering the industry knowing what's going on in it. Air Inc and the DCA website are one sided cause it SELLS. How about a simple link to ata smartbreif at DCA's website? Then I could believe they aren't trying to mislead anyone.

 

[DE727UPS]

Kit Darby, from another forum

Sorry to post from the competition, but this is a good one.

http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=63912

 

[hobo]

interesting article

my favorite line in there

"About 1,300 of the 59,000 pilots for major U.S. airlines are expected to retire this year, Darby said. That number will continue to increase annually, reaching about 2,300 in 2007, he said."

1300 of 59000 is about 2.2% thats really low if you ask me b/c you have to be 21 to work for a major and under 60 so an age range of 39 years. 2.2% by 39 years equals 85% so that means this is a low year for retirement and 2007 with 3.9% will be more of an average retirement year.

think about that and realize that this great announcement about airline opportunity is just them pretending average numbers are great.

 

[MuscleShirt]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe I had a direct conversation with a newly hired 757 FO from Continental that they are doing pretty good. He also, mentioned that they are hiring quite a few pilots now, but that the hiring is planned to reach 40 pilots a month by next year. I'll take that as a good sign.

I have come to terms with the fact that there will only be a few majors left (excluding UPS/FEDEX/DHL) when all this restructuring is over. I'm willing to bet that everybody talking in this forum cares enough about what they do to stay optimistic and keep after their goals. Whether their goals end at a regional or a major makes no difference. If my goal of eventually getting to a major is going to be that much more difficult, then the reward will just be that much sweeter. On the other hand, if my goal is cut short and I remain at a regional carrier, at least I will have a great view from my office.

Sorry if some think this is cheesier than a pizza...

 

[MuscleShirt]

my favorite line in there

"About 1,300 of the 59,000 pilots for major U.S. airlines are expected to retire this year, Darby said. That number will continue to increase annually, reaching about 2,300 in 2007, he said."

1300 of 59000 is about 2.2% thats really low if you ask me b/c you have to be 21 to work for a major and under 60 so an age range of 39 years. 2.2% by 39 years equals 85% so that means this is a low year for retirement and 2007 with 3.9% will be more of an average retirement year.

think about that and realize that this great announcement about airline opportunity is just them pretending average numbers are great.

Huh, I thought retirement numbers were looking better than that. Maybe it was the 10 year projections that stuck in my head.

 

[hobo]

yeah i remember being told how great of a time this was at school but those numbers dont support it at all and the part about nearly 10000 pilots being put out of the majors in the last 4 years means they arent really hiring to replace the retirees either. kinda sux. i shouldve followed my friends and been rich then bought my own jet so i could be the captain.

 

[chrisdahut1]

wow, looks like this is one helluva thread I started! Didn't expect it to turn into a discussion on the topic at hand, but oh well.

Looks like the regional airline industry is in for a major airline style period of turmoil over the next few months. Some appear to be hiring, which is good for the low timers...of course I'd imagine when the furloughs start, the experienced competition will be tough to beat.

As for RAH....our continued 170 growth (high time new hires only), shunning of new 50 seat contracts and reduction of 50 seat flying in the Delta system means the job opportunities for the academy grads will probably be drying up. However, ASA, Eagle and Skywest appear to still be hiring which is a positive.

As a side note- I always find it humorous when pilots lament about their current situation and always assume they'd be rich and swimming in money if only they'd chosen some other profession!

 

[hobo]

my best friend from college manages a hedge fund. he made $5 million after taxes last year. on the down side he works about 90 hours a week. except he could retire next year and never work again and still have made more than double what ill make in my lifetime.

 

[chrisdahut1]

That great....but 5 milllion a year is hardly the average wage the average pilot could expect to make outside of aviation.

 

[hobo]

true. he definately makes the most of anyone i know. but i am by far the poorest of everyone i went to college with tho i love flying more than they love their jobs. now i just gotta get them to pay me to fly them around.