This is a trainwreck that the AF could have seen coming for a long, long time. All of the indicators were there; the "little people" have been screaming about it for at least the last 5 years. Hell,
Welsh himself knew about it when he was USAFE/CC years ago.
The AF is so busy smelling its own farts, breaking its arm patting itself on the back, calling itself "the greatest Air Force in the history of the world," that they're completely unable to step back, identify future/looming threats, and make an honest assessment of themselves. Given that, it isn't tough to understand why the trainwreck is here and the
leadership (I mean, management -- there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of leadership going on here...) is surprised by it and caught on its heels.
The AF has a lot of phenomenal, hard-working people. These are the people who are keeping the service functional despite the blue-kool-aid guzzing careerist sycophants that infest most of the levels of leadership above the squadron.
So far as I'm concerned, HAF can choke on the problem they've created.
Good JQP article on the issue:
http://www.jqpublicblog.com/that-time-gen-welsh-didnt-think-morale-was-pretty-darn-good/