Thinking About Sun Country?

[ZapBrannigan]

I’ve told my story before on here many times but just as a reminder, I did exactly what some here were advocating.

Was an FO at a commuter. Left and went to an LCC as a stepping stone. Furloughed from the LCC in 98’. Found a job with a major in 99’ which, much like today was an era of rapid growth at the legacies. I was 26 years old.

Then 9/11

After the furloughs there were so many pilots available to hire that the few companies still hiring raised their minimums waaay up just to get a handle on the number of applicants they had.

And there I sat with lots of time in the right seat of 737s and DC9s.... but not one hour of PIC turbine.

Took me a decade to finally get the TPIC needed to move on. Even declined my recall at the major because they were still looking pretty shaky and I didn’t want to take the chance again without the TPIC. So instead of retiring #1, I’ll be around #1000.

Not saying there’s a right or wrong in all of this. But don’t want to see anyone make the same mistakes I made and end up unqualified for the job they just held yesterday during the next downturn.


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[Deleted member 27505]

"fly the world" is a little bit of a stretch considering they fly to Central America, Caribbean and North America, according to their interactive map.

For SunCountry ticket buyers, Branson is "the world". Central America is Sun Country's version of space travel.

 

[Roger Roger]

For SunCountry ticket buyers, Branson is "the world". Central America is Sun Country's version of space travel.

Umm...I mean...they do go all over doing DoD charters.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Define "it"

9/11 was a once in a lifetime (hopefully) attack like Pearl Harbor. 3k dead and you know exactly you were that day because of its horribleness/profoundness/effects/etc. These kinds of things don't happen with regular occurrence in the US. The 2008 recession was bad but honestly it was worse because Age 65 had just passed Dec 2007. That guaranteed people work 5 yrs longer and hiring came to a halt at nearly all the airlines for 2008-2011. The big 3 didn't hire in 2012 either.

So what's next? Another 9/11? Age 67? Changing the age rule will just delay by 2 yrs the retirement graphs. It doesn't fix anything, it just buys the industry time. Another recession? Ok, but will that really cause thousands and thousands in layoffs as 9/11 did? 2008 layoffs weren't that bad compared to 9/11. But most airlines that went out of business did so because oil came waaaaaay up and they couldn't deal with it, along with the liquidity crisis. If you can't get money, you're hosed.

I think there retirement numbers are just too staggering to be any real "big" furlough.

Keep telling yourself that. I'll be here waiting to say I told you so.

 

[AAPalmTree]

Does your car have to have cell / data service for that?

It a subscription. $10/month for remote start/unlock, car finder.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Keep telling yourself that. I'll be here waiting to say I told you so.

So if you were me at 34, you wouldn't start over at the big 3 today or 2019?

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

no, what is it?

$36/hr regardless of fleet 717/321/767/330.

Reserve 75 hr guarantee. 75 x 36 x 12 months = $32,400 to fly an A330 1st yr pay in America.


To be fair, a lot of HAL guys complained about it and tried to get it changed for the new contract. But some view it as a "right of passage" because they had to go through it too.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

So if you were me at 34, you wouldn't start over at the big 3 today or 2019?

Absolutely not. I think you should stay right where you're at. To do otherwise risks career and financial ruin when right now you're basically set for life.

 

[mrivc211]

$36/hr regardless of fleet 717/321/767/330.

Reserve 75 hr guarantee. 75 x 36 x 12 months = $32,400 to fly an A330 1st yr pay in America.


To be fair, a lot of HAL guys complained about it and tried to get it changed for the new contract. But some view it as a "right of passage" because they had to go through it too.

"Right of passage" aka I had to suffer so you do to or else I'm gonna hate on you for having it better than me. That's pilots at their best for you an mgmt taking advantage of that. I made $19.02 per hour first year. I don't know what it is now, but I know its a lot better than $19.02 per hour. Theres literally a shortage of pilots in the thousands. No pilot in their first year should be making less than $100,000.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Absolutely not. I think you should stay right where you're at. To do otherwise risks career and financial ruin when right now you're basically set for life.

Now you're making an assumption. You're assuming AS will be around long term, as opposed to going the way of all the other airlines that have failed. Who's more likely to be around in 30+ yrs? AA, DL, UA, or AS? Don't get me wrong, I would like if AS exists long term whether as stand alone or bought/merged into another carrier. But look at Pan Am, Braniff, Eastern, airlines that had been around for decades that ceased operations. No merger/buyout saved those pilots.

But I see your point. And I'm slowly moving towards the point of just perhaps sticking it out here, move west (again), and seeing what happens.

 

[jtrain609]

Now you're making an assumption. You're assuming AS will be around long term, as opposed to going the way of all the other airlines that have failed. Who's more likely to be around in 30+ yrs? AA, DL, UA, or AS? Don't get me wrong, I would like if AS exists long term whether as stand alone or bought/merged into another carrier. But look at Pan Am, Braniff, Eastern, airlines that had been around for decades that ceased operations. No merger/buyout saved those pilots.

But I see your point. And I'm slowly moving towards the point of just perhaps sticking it out here, move west (again), and seeing what happens.

Alaska has been around for 86 years. What, besides listening to an angry pilot group, makes you think that will change? And I mean objectively. What DATA tells you that this will change.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Now you're making an assumption. You're assuming AS will be around long term, as opposed to going the way of all the other airlines that have failed. Who's more likely to be around in 30+ yrs? AA, DL, UA, or AS? Don't get me wrong, I would like if AS exists long term whether as stand alone or bought/merged into another carrier. But look at Pan Am, Braniff, Eastern, airlines that had been around for decades that ceased operations. No merger/buyout saved those pilots.

But I see your point. And I'm slowly moving towards the point of just perhaps sticking it out here, move west (again), and seeing what happens.

I don’t believe there is any reason at all to think that Alaska has a lower chance of survival than the Big 3. I think the absolute worst case realistic scenario would be a merger.

 

[Roger Roger]

Alaska has been around for 86 years. What, besides listening to an angry pilot group, makes you think that will change? And I mean objectively. What DATA tells you that this will change.

I think he should keep drinking and spouting the haterade. Maybe it will scare off enough applicants that some poor schmuck like me will have a chance.

 

[ppragman]

Now you're making an assumption. You're assuming AS will be around long term, as opposed to going the way of all the other airlines that have failed. Who's more likely to be around in 30+ yrs? AA, DL, UA, or AS? Don't get me wrong, I would like if AS exists long term whether as stand alone or bought/merged into another carrier. But look at Pan Am, Braniff, Eastern, airlines that had been around for decades that ceased operations. No merger/buyout saved those pilots.

But I see your point. And I'm slowly moving towards the point of just perhaps sticking it out here, move west (again), and seeing what happens.

You think Alaska F-ing Airlines is going to go out of business and AA, DL, UA is safer? Lolz. Bruh, I get you are a little sour grapes after the whole virgin thing or whatever, but whatever you do do not under any circumstances give up seniority at a legacy company to go to another legacy. You are literally set for life. Alaska isn't going anywhere. Hell - I wish there was more competition up here and they didn't have quite the monopoly on air travel they enjoy. Even if AS catastrophically fails in the next decade by somehow managing to screw that up, unless you're underwater on a house you bought in the bay area, you could literally set yourself up so that you could retire in 10 years if you wanted to. Even with $100,000 in student loan debt and a $400,000 house and $20,000 in credit card debt you could probably retire in that time period if you wanted to. You could literally stop working in a decade if you wanted to - at 40±5 years... Literally every penny you make after 45 you could spend on screwing off around the world with your spouse. If you have kids, you could send them to the best universities on planet earth and secure their financial future for the next 2 generations. You could start a foundation and make peoples lives better with that kind of money. You could buy a little airplane, drop every conceivable trip and bore holes in the sky. You could literally do whatever you want if you spent 10 years saving, investing, and flying the line for AS. You could do all of that and still live comfortably for the next decade. Breathe easy, you made it - now you just have to keep your nose clean, fly safely, and pass checkrides - that's a pretty low bar.

Actually, you know what - go ahead and move on - I have friends over there that would appreciate the seniority boost.

 

[ppragman]

I don’t believe there is any reason at all to think that Alaska has a lower chance of survival than the Big 3. I think the absolute worst case realistic scenario would be a merger.

Absolute worst. Even if the economy collapsed and the financial world ended and a ton of guys got furloughed AS essentially has monopolistic control over all the 121 flying that's done in Alaska. If they wanted to they could "down size" in SEA or whatever and kick PenAir and Rav'n off of the Alaska flying and probably raise prices and make more money. This idea that they'll disappear is totally wack.

 

[ppragman]

I can't even F-ing fathom this. Why the hell would you quit a job that essentially guarantees you a comfortable life with substantial control over your schedule to go to another company that offers essentially the exact same thing. Do you know how many people would legitimately kill for the opportunity to have that kind of security in their lives.

 

[Hiboglossi]

I can't even F-ing fathom this. Why the hell would you quit a job that essentially guarantees you a comfortable life with substantial control over your schedule to go to another company that offers essentially the exact same thing. Do you know how many people would legitimately kill for the opportunity to have that kind of security in their lives.

Well apparently someone else actually quit AS for a job that certainly doesn't offer a comfortable life or much control over your schedule (street captain at a Regional). Envoy schedule new hire I still can't imagine how that seemed like a good idea.

 

[Roger Roger]

Do you know how many people would legitimately kill for the opportunity to have that kind of security in their lives.

*raises hand* Mr. Tilden, do you have any enemies that need to disappear?

 

[Skåning]

Yeah it was my friend who I helped get hired that just left for Envoy as a street captain. The schedules have taken a HUGE hit and quality of life has plummeted, leading to many people questioning staying at the company. All this sadly, with no sign of improving.

You guys looking at AS from the outside have no idea what kind of operation it is. Your fantasies about flying an Eskimo tailed airplane around Alaska are cute, but there is absolutely no comparison between AS and the legacy carriers. Sure they may be the biggest game in town in AK, but in the rest of the country they're trailing way behind. It's easy to be fooled into thinking they're in the same league, hell they have 737s and A320s, just like the big 3! This is completely wrong and there is zero evidence to suggest that AS has the economic viability to survive going forward, essentially they're a credit card company that codeshares and outsources most of their flying.

Sure they have a lock on flying in their namesake state, but that certainly is not enough to sustain an airline of 3000+ pilots and 300 airplanes. The fact is they are getting their ass kicked everywhere else that they've had to face competition. To add insult to injury, you can now fly coast to coast on a Skywest Alaska RJ. There is zero job protection here, don't think for a second that the future is guaranteed at AS.

 

[Skåning]

I’ve told my story before on here many times but just as a reminder, I did exactly what some here were advocating.

Was an FO at a commuter. Left and went to an LCC as a stepping stone. Furloughed from the LCC in 98’. Found a job with a major in 99’ which, much like today was an era of rapid growth at the legacies. I was 26 years old.

Then 9/11

After the furloughs there were so many pilots available to hire that the few companies still hiring raised their minimums waaay up just to get a handle on the number of applicants they had.

And there I sat with lots of time in the right seat of 737s and DC9s.... but not one hour of PIC turbine.

Took me a decade to finally get the TPIC needed to move on. Even declined my recall at the major because they were still looking pretty shaky and I didn’t want to take the chance again without the TPIC. So instead of retiring #1, I’ll be around #1000.

Not saying there’s a right or wrong in all of this. But don’t want to see anyone make the same mistakes I made and end up unqualified for the job they just held yesterday during the next downturn.


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In hindsight, should you have taken the recall?