The slowly death of General Aviation in the U.S.

tomokc said:
1. Perception that it's unsafe. It simply isn't unsafe.
2. Desire for instant gratification by younger people today, and a surplus of competing activities that provide it.
3. Failure by the industry to show advantages of GA travel versus commercial.
4. Scarcity of pilots is self-perpetuating. I don't know anyone who flies," many lament, so they don't learn.
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It may be safe, but just about everyone of us knows someone (or more than one someone) whose died doing it.
 
SteveCostello said:
For the most part, the only advantage I can think of is not having my very personal belongings manhandled by someone, or having death ray beams shot through them. Oh, and not having to wait for the idiot in front of me in the security line have to remove their laced shoes, undo and remove their belt, take off their jacket, remove their laptop from the very bottom of their just-barely-gonna-make-it-in-the-overhead carryon, empty all four pockets of $6.43 of pocket change, mostly in pennies, and grab 3 dozen plastic bins to contain all the stuff they just removed from their body. Oh... and then they need to repeat the process for the 3 kids in tow.

But past that, what are the advantages for GA? It is usually wildly more expensive than the airlines (I recently priced out taking a rental from STL to New Bern, NC for a weekend... and then immediately bought airline tickets). Past a certain point, it is also slower than commercial travel. Add in the myriad inconveniences (such as having to pull your little friend out to pee in a bottle with your best friend's 10-year old daughter sitting next to you to evacuate that 40oz. mochafrappamegacalorieccino you slammed before climbing in), and the glitz and glamour of hopping into a light plane for a quick jaunt (oh... sorry, we've got a 20 knot headwind, so we'll actually be in the air for about 6 hours) starts to wear off pretty quickly.

I'm a big advocate for GA (and I am specifically referring to recreational and personal GA), but let's be honest... you have to really love it to put up with all of the things that are not really great about it. And hope your passengers are, too.
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You left one off - weather. My last long trip in the 172 was to Augusta, GA for an Ironman my wife was doing. As we got ready to leave a front stalled over the region dropping buckets of heavy rain and hail. Wasn't going to move for days. Had I flown commercial it wouldn't have been as big a deal. Instead I had to leave the plane, rent a car, drive 8 hours home, and then fly back the next weekend to pick up the plane.

What the 172 was great for in our case was when my wife had hearings in FXE. We could leave after she got off of work and fly down over the glades, usually as the sun was setting. About 1:45 or so an Banyan would bring the car up next to the plane. Drive to the hotel, have the hearing in the morning, and head back.
 
Lets compare apples to apples here.In the last 20 years prices have risen about 60% due to inflation alone.
So your $50 per hour C152 20 years ago adjusted for inflation is around $82 / hour today. Add on the increased fuel prices (back in the 90's oil was held below market) and you get close to today's numbers.
I have seen schools charging more for CFI's.
In the 90's a CFI was about 10-15% of the aircraft. Now its somewhere around 20 - 25%. West Florida its around $50/hr as best as I can see. ( I get $21 of the $55 that the school takes).

Overall what I see as the largest determent to GA are:
1. The perceived lack of value.
2. Flight schools see the CFI as an increasing revenue source, don't compensate the CFI enough (should be 25% to school 75% to CFI)
3. Operating aging fleets.
4. Advertising minimum hours to gain a certificate (I never tell anyone that it takes 35 hours).


Source for inflation http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
 
I wouldn't say it is nearly-dead by any means. I think the economy is in a serious slump and with that comes trickle-down effect to industries like aviation which many would consider a "luxury industry" rather than an "infrastructure industry". And that is just the problem. The aviation industry as a whole is percieved to be a luxury industry when in reality it is of vital importance to our present and future.

Gas prices have gone up by a lot everywhere, but definitely more than they have in some places. FL remains a "relatively cheap" state to fly in.. Especially if you avoid south FL. I know Georgia and several other southern states have managed to maintain cheaper gas prices than many states across the country.

And as with any industry, I think that it needs to adapt and "roll with the punches" so to speak. I think over the next 10 years we will see a rise in more efficient engines for GA and different fuels that will help to keep the costs of operation lower. And as has been mentioned in a previous post, I think we will see a big rise in the Experimental and Ultra-Light categories of aircraft. The bottom line is that it is simply too expensive to have a certified aircraft from the average owners point of view. It costs nearly $150,000 just to buy a brand new C172 nowadays. You can build/buy a comparable Experimental category aircraft with better performance for 1/3 of the price that is in all reality, just as safe as a 172.

Another thing to factor in is also the expense of flight training and the requirements to even get to a regional airline now. While I feel that the 1500 hour rule will be a good thing for the airline industry long-term, I think it is going to severely stunt the amount of students interested in the field of aviation as a career which will in turn stunt the amount of students flight schools receive. Not to mention the absurd difficulty in getting a loan for flight training as opposed to say getting a loan for a bachelors in "Art History". Our nation needs to change the way we give school loans to better support national interests and stop giving out taxpayer dollars to any degree under the sun.

Someone could probably write a 100 page research paper getting into the specifics of why we are seeing a downward trend in General Aviation, but the facts remain that it will be forced to adapt or slowly go the way of the buffalo. Just my .02
 
chrisreedrules said:
I wouldn't say it is nearly-dead by any means. I think the economy is in a serious slump and with that comes trickle-down effect to industries like aviation which many would consider a "luxury industry" rather than an "infrastructure industry". And that is just the problem. The aviation industry as a whole is percieved to be a luxury industry when in reality it is of vital importance to our present and future.

Gas prices have gone up by a lot everywhere, but definitely more than they have in some places. FL remains a "relatively cheap" state to fly in.. Especially if you avoid south FL. I know Georgia and several other southern states have managed to maintain cheaper gas prices than many states across the country.

And as with any industry, I think that it needs to adapt and "roll with the punches" so to speak. I think over the next 10 years we will see a rise in more efficient engines for GA and different fuels that will help to keep the costs of operation lower. And as has been mentioned in a previous post, I think we will see a big rise in the Experimental and Ultra-Light categories of aircraft. The bottom line is that it is simply too expensive to have a certified aircraft from the average owners point of view. It costs nearly $150,000 just to buy a brand new C172 nowadays. You can build/buy a comparable Experimental category aircraft with better performance for 1/3 of the price that is in all reality, just as safe as a 172.

Another thing to factor in is also the expense of flight training and the requirements to even get to a regional airline now. While I feel that the 1500 hour rule will be a good thing for the airline industry long-term, I think it is going to severely stunt the amount of students interested in the field of aviation as a career which will in turn stunt the amount of students flight schools receive. Not to mention the absurd difficulty in getting a loan for flight training as opposed to say getting a loan for a bachelors in "Art History". Our nation needs to change the way we give school loans to better support national interests and stop giving out taxpayer dollars to any degree under the sun.

Someone could probably write a 100 page research paper getting into the specifics of why we are seeing a downward trend in General Aviation, but the facts remain that it will be forced to adapt or slowly go the way of the buffalo. Just my .02
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But the issue is that there aren't any new pilots, other than those on a career track. The boat business took a hit too during the recession, but I could wake up tomorrow and decide I want to own a boat and have one by end of day. Not the same with aviation. I mean we have plenty of young guys on here - how many are on a path to owning a GA aircraft and using it for personal/recreational usage? Not too many, and the ones who do probably have family who are active in GA.
 
I think that there may have been a flight training "bubble" for quite a while, with all the indiscreet spending we did for 15 years. I doubt GA will die but it certainly has taken a dive. Would be a smaller dip, though, had there not been the Sallie Mae's, the full page "COME DO OUR AIRLINE PILOT IN 90 DAYS PROGRAM" adds and the people who were willing to take the risks.
 
This is true... Most of the aircraft owners I know or have met are either wealthy or the son/daughter of someone who is wealthy. Very few "middle class" owners are to be found nowadays. I think most recognize that it would be cheaper to just join a flying club or do a fractional ownership type of thing. But like I said, I think the Experimental market will begin to make up for this shortfall in the years to come.
 
I do not think that general aviation will ever completely die, but I do see it as increasingly becoming a rich man's hobby. I wonder what GA will look like 20 years from now when many of the airplane owners are no longer living or no longer able to hold a medical certificate.
 
chrisreedrules said:
It costs nearly $150,000 just to buy a brand new C172 nowadays. You can build/buy a comparable Experimental category aircraft with better performance for 1/3 of the price that is in all reality, just as safe as a 172.
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Price check in aisle 3...

The 180 hp 172S, referred to by Cessna as the 172-SP, goes for $307,500; the 160 hp 172R sells for $274,900. [wikipedia]
 
Is this a good time to mention that I was renting 152s for $33/hr and 172s for $52/hr as recently as 2004? :eek:

Seriously though, parts for airplanes are stupid. $5000 for a flap motor? You could buy a nice used car, or a new motorcycle for that money, and the same motor purchased without the FAA stamp is probably a couple hundred bucks at most.

A basic nav/com radio is up to what, $4000 now? It's a freaking am transceiver, you could build one in your basement, or buy it at an electronics store for like $20.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus that ate your iPhone.
 
I agree with previous posters that experimentals are the future. Much cheaper to build, you can do the conditional inspections yourself, parts are cheaper. They are more fuel efficient ( higher speeds on the same or less fuel burn). Also I see a lot of people going to burning car has now with the STC.
 
Inverted25 said:
I agree with previous posters that experimentals are the future. Much cheaper to build, you can do the conditional inspections yourself, parts are cheaper. They are more fuel efficient ( higher speeds on the same or less fuel burn). Also I see a lot of people going to burning car has now with the STC.
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Most people have a hard time keeping up with the oil changes on their freaking cars. I imagine that the number of people that are willing to spend the vast amount of time and dedication it takes to build their own airplane is pretty limited (as compared to the people that do want to fly).

I want to fly. Badly. And I'd love a relatively affordable way to do it. But I have to be honest with myself... there is absolutely no way I have the time, resources, or space to build my own plane. I'm fairly certain that the vast majority of people that want to fly are in the same boat. That isn't to say that I wouldn't love to build my own plane... I would. But I'm trying to be realistic (in a hobby/career that is already on the of realism!).

"Props" (hah!) to those that do it, though. Nothing but respect for those folks.

(I will say, though, that most of the kit builders offer partially assembled components now. Little more pricey, but makes the building pill easier to swallow.)
 
SteveCostello said:
Price check in aisle 3...

The 180 hp 172S, referred to by Cessna as the 172-SP, goes for $307,500; the 160 hp 172R sells for $274,900. [wikipedia]
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I was going to say something, but I knew someone would have beat me to it.

If I was forced to buy a new airplane, for that price, I'd more likely go with something like http://www.wacoaircraft.com/assets/PDFs/Sales/Great-Lakes-2T-1A-2/2012-Great-Lakes.pdf.

Otherwise, I can get -one hell- of a V-tail bonanza in cherry condition for half that price.

But when a new engine costs $80k, it holds almost all the value. :|

~Fox
 
For me, it's cost. I have a fairly well paying career, but I can't afford to fly for fun anymore. I pursue other hobbies instead now that cost less money. I miss GA flying, but I just kinda deal with it. It's the same as I miss college. It was awesome when I was there, and I would love to go back, but realistically speaking it's not going to happen.
 
It isn't that hard to build something if you are mechanically inclined in the least bit and have instructions to read. A friend and I rebuilt a Honda Civic engine in high school and that was a piece of cake. Most GA engines aren't even as complicated as that. Having the space to do it... Well that is another issue. One day I want to build a kit P-38 3/4 scale with dual Lycoming 360s. Or maybe something tinier with dual Rotax engines. Those things are cheap to operate (Tecnam I flew only burned 10gal p/hour total with 2 engines and burned MoGas at that) and they produce decent performance below 10,000 MSL. The options are out there and if people want it bad enough they will figure it out. I see building an aircraft as being a fun experience. Part of the journey to ownership, if you will.
 
If you are concerned about the building process join your local EAA the people there will be glad to come give you a hand when you need. It's really easy. I helped my uncle build his rv-8. It's not rocket science. Plus if your building a vans rv there is great support for them out there
 
jafra98 said:
Every aircraft owner that I know has not been flying like they used to do in the past with their airplanes quickly becoming ramp queens. Why is GA slowly dying in the U.S.? Is it avgas prices fault? Insurance? What about new people becoming pilots??


Sent from my Tandy TRS-80.........................
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Aviation was expensive but doable when I started flying. 100LL was 1.58/gal, Jet A was 2.12 and a C172 could be rented wet for 65 and hour and low time pilots could find a job if they worked hard. Fast forward to today. Aircraft rentals in some places are nearing 150+/hr, then add a fuel surcharges on to that. The jobs are even harder to get and with the new FAA rules coming out your are going to have instruct a lot to get picked up by airline (assuming any are hiring). Lastly there is absolutely no respect left for the position from the public, gate agents, and even some managers despise their pilot group (e.g. AA). Who the heck would want to sign up for that?

For those of us that have made it to a descent job with good pay we should thank God we made it this far. I like most, probably wouldn't not do it over again in today's market or could have predicted where the industry would be now when we started.
 
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