Skywest parking 66 CRJ-200's, obtaining 34 CRJ-700/900's

[bronco21016]

Insert foot in mouth.

I just don't buy into the shortage. I think hiring will be steady but that's all. I don't think we'll all be writing our own ticket.

 

[jtrain609]

Same to you man... Have you ever spoken to anyone who has been in this industry at least 10 years? *Experts* have been screaming shortage since the first Wright Flyer took flight and the flight schools and regionals have been running around distributing the kool aid as far back as anyone alive here today can remember all in search of making a quick buck off of all us fools that buy into the idea that one day we'll be bidding #1 747 Captain at UnitedAmericanWorldwide Megairlines one day. Shortage with write your ticket = false. If you wanna preach steady hiring for awhile among the most qualified candidates then I might listen.

Bad news. If my calculations are correct, you're replying to one of those people right now.

 

[Comair 100ER]

If 9/11 and the age 65 thing wouldn't have happened it would have been here 5 years ago.

Key word here...IF. Lot of stuff can happen. It's dumb to buy into this stuff and bank on it. Unless you have a crystal ball or something.

 

[B767]

Bad news. If my calculations are correct, you're replying to one of those people right now.

Not quite. He's only been at SKW since 12/2003.

 

[jtrain609]

Not quite. He's only been at SKW since 12/2003.

Close enough

 

[bronco21016]

If he's been there since '03 he's certainly had conversations with guys who have been there awhile though.

It just shocks me when people have been around this for awhile yet still buy in to the shortage thing. I've only been at a regional a year and a half but have lurked in these forums for years and I've got plenty of friends that have been at regionals for awhile and they all preach the shortage is a lie. It's like the little boy that cries wolf except there's always a subset of the population that forgets he lied last time.

The shortage is fun to believe in but it's what keeps that little bit of hope in the back of our minds that keeps us coming back after we continuously get cut down and the man knows this. It's the mans job to keep that hope in the majority of people's minds otherwise the man gets overthrown. If people aren't still talking about a shortage 40 years from now I'll be shocked.

 

[jtrain609]

If he's been there since '03 he's certainly had conversations with guys who have been there awhile though.

It just shocks me when people have been around this for awhile yet still buy in to the shortage thing. I've only been at a regional a year and a half but have lurked in these forums for years and I've got plenty of friends that have been at regionals for awhile and they all preach the shortage is a lie. It's like the little boy that cries wolf except there's always a subset of the population that forgets he lied last time.

The shortage is fun to believe in but it's what keeps that little bit of hope in the back of our minds that keeps us coming back after we continuously get cut down and the man knows this. It's the mans job to keep that hope in the majority of people's minds otherwise the man gets overthrown. If people aren't still talking about a shortage 40 years from now I'll be shocked.

You know what's more fun to believe in? Numbers. Below are the numbers from APC.

Now could the numbers not tell us what we think they're telling us? Sure, and there's an easy way to have that happen; if mainline companies shrink. But there's only so much of that they can do, because there's a need out there for air travel and SOMEBODY will be there to fill it.

American:

2012 - 5
2013 - 85
2014 - 103
2015 - 130
2016 - 167
2017 - 255
2018 - 331
2019 - 442
2020 - 545
2021 - 601
2022 - 666
2023 - 710
2024 - 725
2025 - 731
2026 - 716
2027 - 599
2028 - 517
2029 - 477
2030 - 416
2031 - 437

Delta:

2012 - 15
2013 - 87
2014 - 138
2015 - 197
2016 - 264
2017 - 358
2018 - 456
2019 - 540
2020 - 638
2021 - 818
2022 - 862
2023 - 819
2024 - 807
2025 - 716
2026 - 610
2027 - 509
2028 - 477
2029 - 473
2030 - 487
2031 - 423
2032 - 321
2033 - 252
2034 - 162
2035 - 108
2036 - 92
2037 - 47
2038 - 24

United:

2012 - 32
2013 - 399
2014 - 419
2015 - 382
2016 - 371
2017 - 431
2018 - 413
2019 - 424
2020 - 427
2021 - 509
2022 - 470
2023 - 552
2024 - 491
2025 - 600
2026 - 652
2027 - 632
2028 - 736
2029 - 675
2030 - 653
2031 - 649

Airways:

2012 - 10
2013 - 184
2014 - 243
2015 - 227
2016 - 269
2017 - 295
2018 - 308
2019 - 329
2020 - 306
2021 - 312
2022 - 263
2023 - 299
2024 - 239
2025 - 229

FedEx:

2012 - 70
2013 - 105
2014 - 93
2015 - 144
2016 - 149
2017 - 186
2018 - 184
2019 - 150
2020 - 180
2021 - 208
2022 - 211
2023 - 223
2024 - 229
2025 - 218
2026 - 242
2027 - 208
2028 - 198

 

[gtpilot]

You know what's more fun to believe in? Numbers. Below are the numbers from APC.

By those numbers I am guessing we have single pilot 121 operations starting in 2020!

 

[HVYMETALDRVR]

There could be a shortage or all those airlines could merge into one and gas could be 20/gallon by 2020

 

[bronco21016]

I just see steady hiring. I'm not so sure I would call it a shortage. Wasn't there a thread awhile back where someone pulled together ALL of the numbers and did an analysis? It seems like it pulled together numbers about how much of the flying is done at regionals etc and figured out where the hiring will actually be.

Time to mess with the search bar....

 

[JustinA]

So in 5 years and 4 months 5,813 pilots will be retiring.

 

[scooter2525]

How many pilots are at regionals right now?

 

[GaTechKid]

It might not fit your definition of shortage, but pretty much anyone at the regionals right now who wants to move up to a major in the next 10 years will be able to do so.

 

[kellwolf]

There could be a shortage or all those airlines could merge into one and gas could be 20/gallon by 2020

Or they could opt for bigger airplanes and less frequency of flights.

For everyone saying "Skywest has a plan for those aiframes," we've all seen this before. ExpressJet had a plan for those airplanes that CAL removed, too. When I was job hunting as an instructor, a lot of guys at XJT were saying "Don't worry about those airplanes getting parked. Things will be golden." Until there's a signed ASA on the table between a regional and a mainline partner, don't buy into whatever management is selling. Skywest management seems to be better at the game than most, but even they can't change market forces and economics.