I think a lot of us are forgetting the 1000's that the majors are going to be loosing in the next few years. I only know about the Captains I fly with, but I'd say about 30% of them are not looking at moving to a major. They have a schedule they like, good enough pay, and not enough years left to get that QoL back at a major. With the guys that aren't going to leave the regionals, the number of guys at the regionals, and the numbers leaving the majors...why jump to another regional right now? It really doesn't look like more than another 5 years and most of us will be hired. Sure the guys that got hired 7 years ago were under the same 5 year plan, but there was a financial crisis, the 60 changing to 65 rule, and no hiring anywhere. Another financial crisis would slow things down if it happened now but unless they bump the age 65 rule up there are a lot of guys to be FORCED out. It doesn't include those that have had enough and leave on their own. Pulling numbers for the next 5 years at the majors you've got:
Delta 1216
United 2016
American 820
USAir 1046
Alaska 203
UPS 215
FedEx 756
Thats 6272 guys forced out through 2018, figure actual numbers leaving those 7 would probably be closer to 7000, and then factor in Southwest, Alliegient, Spirit, Virgin, Frontier, other cargo, etc and you are probably looking at 8000+ guys leaving in the next 5 years, and that is just the beginning. After 2018 the guys leaving each year really ramps up. Just adding 2 more years going to 2020 and there is an additional ~4500. Then don't forget that the majors are also trying to grow and expand for increasing amount of travel.
How many pilots are at the regionals? About 20,000, but again not all of them want to leave or go to majors.
XJT 4630
Skywest 3300
Republic 3000
Envoy 2650
Endeavor 1900
Compass 440
PSA 650
AirWisc 860
Mesa 850
Commutair 220
Horizon 580
TransStates 240
GoJet 510
So what does all of this mean...well wherever you are right now there is a good chance the junior captains will start getting pulled into the majors pretty soon, upgrades will probably start increasing everywhere and the chances of you still being at the regional in 5-7 years are looking very slim right now. XJT is looking at 7 year upgrades because they didn't hire for the previous 5 years. That upgrade will shorten considerably over the next year. The entire current regional pilot staffing will be retired and absorbed in 8 years.
What about downsizing and getting rid of the 50's? Somebody has to do the flying. Right now XJT is doing a lot of Endeavor flying with 200's out of DTW. Why? Because Endeavor can't staff it...will the 50's go away, absolutely, and the majors/regionals will try to offset some of this shortage with the larger aircraft running fewer trips. It will slow down the effects, but it doesn't stop the fact that guys are leaving from the top. Add to all of this the requirement to have an ATP to fly at a carrier, the cost to acquire an ATP, and the lack of people enthused enough to go through is process for the lackluster career and it really is a perfect storm the industry has created for itself. With the limited number of people joining the industry the only place the regionals will really find adequate staffing is by pulling from other regionals. For the majors to force regional pilots to go to a different regional or loose your job seems like it is far too risky in the current environment of growth, mass retirement, and limited pool to hire from.
