PSA Street Captains?
- Thread starter Trip7
- Start date
PhilosopherPilot
Well-Known Member
It's not about blue juice. It's about noticing the dramatic difference between my two airlines, plus the third that I have experience with from the merger between XJT and ASA. I see daily reminders of it with every new hire class.
We can just agree to disagree.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
Autothrust Blue
”…trusting ze process…”
The great Shortage of 2007, which most of us are too young to remember, and the great Shortage of 2015, which most of us are still eagerly awaiting.Oh boy, I've never heard that one before.
(this is badly paraphrasing a Pizza Hut ad, which was about the Bush I and Bush II tax cuts - which at the time the ad aired, most of us were, respectively, too young to remember, and are still waiting for.)
dasleben
That's just, like, your opinion, man
Man, I tell ya, pilots have short memories. And every time hiring starts back up at full bore, it's "But this time will be different!"The great Shortage of 2007, which most of us are too young to remember, and the great Shortage of 2015, which most of us are still eagerly awaiting.
(this is badly paraphrasing a Pizza Hut ad, which was about the Bush I and Bush II tax cuts - which at the time the ad aired, most of us were, respectively, too young to remember, and are still waiting for.)
Autothrust Blue
”…trusting ze process…”
All of this has happened before.Man, I tell ya, pilots have short memories. And every time hiring starts back up at full bore, it's "But this time will be different!"
All of this will happen again.
I know. There's a post on here somewhere that I read today that had something about having 250 hours but still haven't heard a call. Makes me worry.Man, I tell ya, pilots have short memories. And every time hiring starts back up at full bore, it's "But this time will be different!"
It's like when they started selling gold in ATMs.
Autothrust Blue
”…trusting ze process…”
Beefy McGee
Well-Known Member
How long until we go to single pilot / single Cylon cockpits? Shortage shmortage.
Autothrust Blue
”…trusting ze process…”
See ante.
Maximilian_Jenius
Super User
Call me when Six shows up.
You couldn't handle that! Stick to Mayim Bialik, you!
Autothrust Blue
”…trusting ze process…”
I couldn't.
But the current lady and I are (re)watching BSG, so it came to mind.
z987k
Well-Known Member
So that's why you disappeared from Facebook.
Autothrust Blue
”…trusting ze process…”
Actually, that's for unrelated reasons.
I did pick the right week to unplug from it, though, due to recent events.
Goonie
Never say die
For the family guys...
I really feel your pain. I had a child at a young age just out of high school, me and my girlfriend (wife now) didn't have any money and our parents didn't have any money to help us. I knew I wanted to be a pilot so we sacrificed and got a Sallie Mae loan. Anyways, I had to make a lot of sacrifices for my career to make sure I was home every night to help my wife with the baby. I started instructing at a very small school and eventually became the Chief Flight Instructor mixed with various corporate gigs (King Airs). Fast forward a few years and we were the biggest school in the DFW area and I owned a couple planes. I eventually paid off Sallie Mae and all our CC debt we racked up to just feed the family.
Now my daughter is 16 years old and we are finically stable so my wife gave me carte blanche to do whatever I wanted to do to get my career going. The Chief Pilot gig was stressing me out to no end. Last year I started a new job and still loving it. It's nothing glamorous like a major (121 charter), but building some Boeing time and if I keep working my ass off I could be in upgrade next year.
My point is, as a young family you will have to make sacrifices to your career for your family. I got a very late start as far as 121 progression. I won't be senior captain at a Legacy in my career and I'm fine with that. I would much rather sacrifice that than not watching my daughter grow up. Besides, a Major is not my end goal. When My daughter is out of the house on her own, me and the wife want to go live overseas somewhere for a while.
I really feel your pain. I had a child at a young age just out of high school, me and my girlfriend (wife now) didn't have any money and our parents didn't have any money to help us. I knew I wanted to be a pilot so we sacrificed and got a Sallie Mae loan. Anyways, I had to make a lot of sacrifices for my career to make sure I was home every night to help my wife with the baby. I started instructing at a very small school and eventually became the Chief Flight Instructor mixed with various corporate gigs (King Airs). Fast forward a few years and we were the biggest school in the DFW area and I owned a couple planes. I eventually paid off Sallie Mae and all our CC debt we racked up to just feed the family.
Now my daughter is 16 years old and we are finically stable so my wife gave me carte blanche to do whatever I wanted to do to get my career going. The Chief Pilot gig was stressing me out to no end. Last year I started a new job and still loving it. It's nothing glamorous like a major (121 charter), but building some Boeing time and if I keep working my ass off I could be in upgrade next year.
My point is, as a young family you will have to make sacrifices to your career for your family. I got a very late start as far as 121 progression. I won't be senior captain at a Legacy in my career and I'm fine with that. I would much rather sacrifice that than not watching my daughter grow up. Besides, a Major is not my end goal. When My daughter is out of the house on her own, me and the wife want to go live overseas somewhere for a while.
dasleben
That's just, like, your opinion, man
It's just like the stock market. When everyone gets excited and starts buying in, start thinking about selling.
I have one app out right now, and that's at Purple. While Delta has a solid spreadsheet, a lot of the other legacy airlines have such big profit/loss swings that I don't want much to do with them.
scooter2525
Very well Member
grkero
fer yer health
I was wondering the same thing. I was smelling an interview.
Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
Some meandering thoughts on the subject.
Too often in aviation (and many other endevours), people drive by looking in the rear view mirror. They make the assumption that they can learn from history. Not a bad idea, but often things change that can make historic precedence irrelevant.
Having seen numerous past pilot shortages this one is different. And yes, they were shortages in the past. A shortage is when available demand exceeds supply and costs shift until supply meets demand. If a hurricane hits part of the country there may be a localized shortage of certain goods even though goods are abundant in other parts of the country. Or you can have a supply but people are not willing to part with their goods (or services), at the market price.
Past pilot shortages existed, though they were relatively easy to fix. Pilots with 250 hours could be found in the gutter outside any flight school.
Now... not so much. It is much more difficult to get a 1500 hour pilot with several years experience to take first year regional FO wages than a 250 hour wonder pilot.
Add to this the age 65 rule kicking in- mandatory retirement for many pilots. I don't know the numbers off the top of my head, but the looming retirements are real.
Regionals are left in a conundrum, especially "bottom feeders". They need replacement pilots but they can't increase pilot pay and QOL as they made low bids on FFD contracts. So some resort to "poaching" FOs, promising quick upgrades for FOs at regionals with better contracts (and this lower turnover). For a while this worked as some regionals were left with unusual attrition numbers as they list more FOs than captains; which hurt these airlines as they were forced to try to attract new FOs but could not promise the fast upgrades. Some regionals that were low bidders on contracts have already lost flying and airplanes to higher cost competitors as the legacy carrier did not feel they could staff what they bid.
And that is where we are right now. I'm not sure how this will play out as regionals are put in a vice. On the one side is the demand by partners to contain costs, yet on the other side the cost of attracting new pilots, not to mention the cost of training these pilots with high turnover. Personally, knowing the number of sims available I'm not sure how these regionals will adequately train the numbers they talk about, especially if they do not own any sims. I think "adequately" will be the key and we will see the Colgan training mentality at work.
So it will be an interesting 10 years in the regional industry. I think some of the call signs today won't be around in a decade. How will legacy carriers react when their regional feeders have difficulty staffing? How will they react as these regional pilots leave for a competitor or an LLC? Will they return to the pre COMAIR strike model of owning the feeders in order to control the staffing? More flow throughs? Will one find that holy grail of regional pilots and go with a "one list" solution? You got me.
Too often in aviation (and many other endevours), people drive by looking in the rear view mirror. They make the assumption that they can learn from history. Not a bad idea, but often things change that can make historic precedence irrelevant.
Having seen numerous past pilot shortages this one is different. And yes, they were shortages in the past. A shortage is when available demand exceeds supply and costs shift until supply meets demand. If a hurricane hits part of the country there may be a localized shortage of certain goods even though goods are abundant in other parts of the country. Or you can have a supply but people are not willing to part with their goods (or services), at the market price.
Past pilot shortages existed, though they were relatively easy to fix. Pilots with 250 hours could be found in the gutter outside any flight school.
Now... not so much. It is much more difficult to get a 1500 hour pilot with several years experience to take first year regional FO wages than a 250 hour wonder pilot.
Add to this the age 65 rule kicking in- mandatory retirement for many pilots. I don't know the numbers off the top of my head, but the looming retirements are real.
Regionals are left in a conundrum, especially "bottom feeders". They need replacement pilots but they can't increase pilot pay and QOL as they made low bids on FFD contracts. So some resort to "poaching" FOs, promising quick upgrades for FOs at regionals with better contracts (and this lower turnover). For a while this worked as some regionals were left with unusual attrition numbers as they list more FOs than captains; which hurt these airlines as they were forced to try to attract new FOs but could not promise the fast upgrades. Some regionals that were low bidders on contracts have already lost flying and airplanes to higher cost competitors as the legacy carrier did not feel they could staff what they bid.
And that is where we are right now. I'm not sure how this will play out as regionals are put in a vice. On the one side is the demand by partners to contain costs, yet on the other side the cost of attracting new pilots, not to mention the cost of training these pilots with high turnover. Personally, knowing the number of sims available I'm not sure how these regionals will adequately train the numbers they talk about, especially if they do not own any sims. I think "adequately" will be the key and we will see the Colgan training mentality at work.
So it will be an interesting 10 years in the regional industry. I think some of the call signs today won't be around in a decade. How will legacy carriers react when their regional feeders have difficulty staffing? How will they react as these regional pilots leave for a competitor or an LLC? Will they return to the pre COMAIR strike model of owning the feeders in order to control the staffing? More flow throughs? Will one find that holy grail of regional pilots and go with a "one list" solution? You got me.
Blackhawk
Well-Known Member
It's just like the stock market. When everyone gets excited and starts buying in, start thinking about selling.
I have one app out right now, and that's at Purple. While Delta has a solid spreadsheet, a lot of the other legacy airlines have such big profit/loss swings that I don't want much to do with them.
Profit loss swings are the nature of airlines. An American CEO was once asked by an investor frustrated at the amount of cash AAL had on hand how much cash was enough. His response was that for an airline there is no such thing as too much cash. When times are good they roll in cash. When times are bad empty 747s are expensive to operate.
It has historically been a problem. When people see the cash- workers, investors, etc- they want it. When the economy turns down there is not enough on hand.