Projected retirements at AA

embraer07

embraer07

Well-Known Member
Here are the numbers somebody posted on another forum showing the number of pilots scheduled to retire from American Airlines. Keep in mind these are the required retirements. They don't include the pilots who will retire before reaching age 65.

Projected Retirements for 2012 - 2032
(Projections based on active pilots turning 65 in the given year.)
Roster Data Updated on: 3/11/2012

Year_____Total____Cumulative
2012_____5_______5
2013_____80______85
2014_____94______179
2015_____127_____306
2016_____151_____457
2017_____228_____685
2018_____318_____1003
2019_____430_____1433
2020_____539_____1972
2021_____596_____2568
2022_____658_____3226
2023_____709_____3935
2024_____723_____4658
2025_____723_____5381
2026_____712_____6093
2027_____596_____6689
2028_____516_____7205
2029_____476_____7681
2030_____415_____8096
2031_____437_____8533
2032_____387_____8920
 
MikeD said:
So these guys won't be getting stapled under the USAirways pilots then......
Click to expand...


USAirways is a couple of dollars short of a takeover. To be blunt, it is a pipe dream on their part. If they had the cash it would be another story.
 
The Delta numbers are interesting too.

2012 - 15 --------15
2013 - 87 --------102
2014 - 138 -------240
2015 - 197 -------437
2016 - 264 -------701
2017 - 358 -------1059
2018 - 456 -------1515
2019 - 540 -------2055
2020 - 638 -------2693
2021 - 818 -------3511
2022 - 862 -------4373
2023 - 819 -------5192
2024 - 807 -------5999
2025 - 716 -------6715
 
Delta has a tendency to retire jets along with pilots so I wouldn't get too excited about those numbers.


Remember, this is the airline that announced an order for 100 737s... To replace retiring 757s and 767-300's.
 
PILOT SHORTAGE!!!!!!!!!


I'd like to see someone with some information from these companies verify these numbers as legit numbers or just sales propaganda from people with a vested interest in flight training.
 
They are accurate but like Doug said this is the perfect opportunity to downsize without having to furlough.
 
mshunter said:
PILOT SHORTAGE!!!!!!!!!


I'd like to see someone with some information from these companies verify these numbers as legit numbers or just sales propaganda from people with a vested interest in flight training.
Click to expand...

I think these are real numbers. However Dougs point that most airlines will shrink along with the retirements is what I believe as well. If I were interested in the "pilot shortage" theory I would look at projected fleet sizes and aircraft orders. I would also examine the star alliance type of agreements that the majors, such as American, have been sending quite a bit of their overseas flying too.

The real question is: weather or not our laws regarding cabotage will change. I believe that Virgin America may have already gotten the camels nose in the tent so to speak. In the future "they took our Joooobbbsss!" may be the death rattle of the American pilot.

The brewing storm of: improving technology, single pilot operations, cabotage, reductions in fleet size and the inability for pilots to collectively bargain along with the total lack of a sustainable business model in aviation does not leave me to believe there is any light at the end of the tunnel.
 
BigWaveDave said:
I think these are real numbers. However Dougs point that most airlines will shrink along with the retirements is what I believe as well. If I were interested in the "pilot shortage" theory I would look at projected fleet sizes and aircraft orders. I would also examine the star alliance type of agreements that the majors, such as American, have been sending quite a bit of their overseas flying too.

The real question is: weather or not our laws regarding cabotage will change. I believe that Virgin America may have already gotten the camels nose in the tent so to speak. In the future "they took our Joooobbbsss!" may be the death rattle of the American pilot.

The brewing storm of: improving technology, single pilot operations, cabotage, reductions in fleet size and the inability for pilots to collectively bargain along with the total lack of a sustainable business model in aviation does not leave me to believe there is any light at the end of the tunnel.
Click to expand...


Single pilot in what airframe? IMO, we will never see single pilot airframes in my lifetime for the simple fact that these kinds of operations require a serious level of skill when things go real wrong. It's not the kind of flying that lends itself to a good outcome with "it" hits the fan. We have all seems what happens already when there are two "qualified" pilots at the controls, the weather is nasty and mistakes get made.
 
BigWaveDave said:
I think these are real numbers. However Dougs point that most airlines will shrink along with the retirements is what I believe as well. If I were interested in the "pilot shortage" theory I would look at projected fleet sizes and aircraft orders. I would also examine the star alliance type of agreements that the majors, such as American, have been sending quite a bit of their overseas flying too.

The real question is: weather or not our laws regarding cabotage will change. I believe that Virgin America may have already gotten the camels nose in the tent so to speak. In the future "they took our Joooobbbsss!" may be the death rattle of the American pilot.

The brewing storm of: improving technology, single pilot operations, cabotage, reductions in fleet size and the inability for pilots to collectively bargain along with the total lack of a sustainable business model in aviation does not leave me to believe there is any light at the end of the tunnel.
Click to expand...
this is why 135/91 looks more appealing everyday
 
The numbers are real, and I disagree with Doug that shrinkage is going to temper the effect of the retirements. In the past, mainline shrinkage was the result of 50-seat RJs being cost effective as an outsourcing tool. That's no longer true. You need 78+ seats to be cost effective, and even that's on the edge. I don't see mainline pilot groups giving up scope for more than 78 seats, and I doubt a bankruptcy judge will do it, either, since 70-78 seats is the industry standard. So, those numbers mean something. Passenger growth over the next decade is a certainty, barring another 9/11, so without increased outsourcing, hiring numbers are going to be incredible. Make sure you're in a position to take advantage of it.
 
There's something really fundamental that we all need to understand in order to really warp our heads around how we approach numbers like these; pilots complain, and they're never happy.

Right now, I'm happy as a clam to have my job back, to have a reasonable schedule, and to be able to make a few bucks while doing it.

But in a few years, it won't be good enough, and I'll be pissed if I can't upgrade.

Then upgrade will come, and everything will be great!

Then after a few more years, if I'm not at mainline, I'll be pissed about that.

Then eventually I'll get to mainline, and be happy again!

Then after another decade, I won't be a captain yet and, as Reel Big Fish has taught us, everything will suck, and I'll likely be decrying any future advancement with thoughts of the company just shrinking instead of expanding into new markets.

Nothing is ever positive for pilots. Ever. EVER EVER EVER. If you take complaining on here seriously, then all the better for me, because there will be advancement for those that stay hungry and keep themselves qualified. But if you want to buy into the complain-fest that most pilots engage in, you'll get discouraged and get left behind. I'm not talking about Trip7 style "EVERYTHING IS AMAZING" kool aid, but a measured approach in understanding that the economy is rebounding, airlines are refleeting (instead of simply shutting their doors), and retirements will be coming.

But in the end this mini rant of mine isn't about this industry, it's about life. You can stay hungry, and you can stay competitive, and you can be optimistic and good things will happen. Or, you can be a pessimist, get sloppy, and get angry when things don't go according to plan. It's a choice that we all make, and I'll be honest with ya'll, it took some real hard times for me to come around to the fact that it's ME that decides whether this career works or not, not tea leaves or oil prices.

As soon as I accepted that I was in control, and my success or failure rested on MY shoulders, I become really motivated to make life work and not just sit back. Maybe a few other people will find the same.
 
mshunter said:
Single pilot in what airframe? IMO, we will never see single pilot airframes in my lifetime for the simple fact that these kinds of operations require a serious level of skill when things go real wrong. It's not the kind of flying that lends itself to a good outcome with "it" hits the fan. We have all seems what happens already when there are two "qualified" pilots at the controls, the weather is nasty and mistakes get made.
Click to expand...

Guy on the ground programs the flight and monitors. Guy in the plane does the takeoff and landing with guy on ground monitoring and providing any technical support needed via link into jets systems leaving pilot on board to fly. If things go badly, either pilot can take over or the computer would take control and land the plane according to its backup programming.

Just a guess of how it could happen in the not to distant future with UAV technology and airlines bent on removing non-revenue producing units from the flight aka pilots and F/A's, since everything else has been monitized except for trips to the bathroom.
 
Single pilot maybe, but we're not going to see unmanned airliners in our lifetime.

Edit: Hopefully I have another 60+ years...Maybe we will see it in our lifetime. Don't think i'd be volunteering to ride on them though
 
Anyone who has done any work with the FAA and Washington knows that it would take the better part of five decades just to get the regulations proposed to deal with such an operation. I'm not worried.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Anyone who has done any work with the FAA and Washington knows that it would take the better part of five decades just to get the regulations proposed to deal with such an operation. I'm not worried.
Click to expand...

Isn't that with the airlines oposing the regulations though? What happens if they out their money and power behind a regulation, how quickly do you think it could get through? Honest question.
 
mshunter said:
Single pilot in what airframe? IMO, we will never see single pilot airframes in my lifetime for the simple fact that these kinds of operations require a serious level of skill when things go real wrong. It's not the kind of flying that lends itself to a good outcome with "it" hits the fan. We have all seems what happens already when there are two "qualified" pilots at the controls, the weather is nasty and mistakes get made.
Click to expand...

I was discussing this with one of our captains who is a retired airline pilot. He said that on the DC-8 he had four flight deck crew for a SFO-HNL run. This has already been reduced by 1/2. Do you really think it is safer? Nope it's cheaper. Naturally the progression will lead to a single pilot aircraft. I was looking into the latest airliner design ideas, "super refined sugar" and noticed that one paper featured a single pilot airliner design. Granted it was just a depiction of a future cockpit but I'm guessing single pilot cockpits for airliners are already being designed and discussed at great lengths at Airbus and Boeing.

As for the poop hitting the fan I couldn't agree with you more. The recent un contained A380 engine failure highlighted the workload that could occur in this aircraft. I may be wrong but there were 5 flight crew members in the cockpit, jump seat or check air men I can't recall which, and all of them were quite busy. IMHO some of the current aircraft designs can task saturate the best two man crew out there. This unfortunately will not stop the bean counters.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top