Projected retirements at AA

That was me qouting...well.... myself, from another less fun, and definitely inferior forum :D. I tried to research and.compile on an Excel spreadsheet all the retirements I could get data on. As far as the numbers go, those are yearly pilots turning 65. In other words not a running cumulative, just plain old annual rates of pilots hitting age 65. Anyone with some spare time can do the math to get the cumulative numbers.
 
For those too lazy to do the math, that's 19,815 retirements over just the next 10 years. In other words, about double the number of current regional captains. The yearly numbers actually increase after that. Be ready when the time comes. Don't let the hiring wave pass you by just because you waited too long to jump in and build your time.
 
Here's some actual figures.

I'm 7700 of about 12000 pilots, 15 years of seniority in 2012:

Was going to be at #3 or #6 (I can't remember because it's water under the bride) in 2030, but mergers + Age 65 + "other" here's an actual seniority progression, not just something off a website which really can't be validated:


seniority.png


It really doesn't make much of a large difference for me until towards 2020, peaks shortly and back down to regular levels of retirements. Of course, that's "for me".

Unless there's some wide body orders coming down the road that add to the fleet (and not simply replace), there's not that meteoric of an effect that is going to accelerate my career progression to crazy, end-of-the-world levels.
 
Not for you, but for those of us that aren't at a mainline carrier yet it's going to be huge.

The number of guys that Airways and American are going to retire are huge. The numbers quoted above are industry wide numbers at mainline, and thus it's going to allow us to move on somewhere. Right now, it's not even an option.
 
Keep in mind also that aviation is here to stay. We can all agree that there is no way our society will ever go back to horses and ships as the primary means of travel. A proper high speed train system is non-existent in the U.S. Even if we had one like Europe does, airplanes get you there in half the time.

In the world we live in, business men regularly fly off to do business in another part of the country in the morning and are back in the office or home before the day is out. Not to mention the speed in which products are transported.

My point is that aviation is not going anywhere. In fact the tendancy is to keep growing to meet an ever increasing demand. As has been mentioned before, putting 3 A380s on a route that today is flown by 12 737s will also not happen because airlines realize the need to offer as many frequencies as they can throughout the day.

More planes will be needed to match the growing demand...not just bigger ones. More pilots will be needed to fly those planes. Add the upcoming retirements to the mix, and a low number of AMERICANS pursuing a commercial certificate and we have a perfect storm brewing.
 
embraer07 said:
More planes will be needed to match the growing demand...not just bigger ones. More pilots will be needed to fly those planes. Add the upcoming retirements to the mix, and a low number of AMERICANS pursuing a commercial certificate and we have a perfect storm brewing.
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....right up until cabotage gets approved, and foreign pilots training here take all der jubz!
 
MikeD said:
....right up until cabotage gets approved, and foreign pilots training here take all der jubz!
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Yes, that is an actual real threat. More reason for all pilots to contribute to ALPA PAC and try to get your pilot groups to all be members of ALPA. The only way to successfully fight off real threats like cabotage and foreign ownership is to all band together.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Yes, that is an actual real threat. More reason for all pilots to contribute to ALPA PAC and try to get your pilot groups to all be members of ALPA. The only way to successfully fight off real threats like cabotage and foreign ownership is to all band together.
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I was making a joking post, but I thought cabotage would be one of the far more difficult things to get approved here in the U.S. It would seem there is nothing in it for us as a country? Or is there?
 
It's no joke, Mike. Very serious threat. The Republicans bring it up all the time. Foreign ownership is far more likely first, and the Republicans have been pushing for that for two decades, but that will eventually open the door for serious discussions of cabotage. The argument in favor will be the usual conservative mantra that "competition is good," and "we should let the market work without government interference."
 
That's weird, only because the few pilots Ive ever talked to about it seem to have the "will NEVER happen. CAN'T happen. NOT possible. Will be defeated if EVER proposed" type of thinking.

Talk about something that will take the industry down quick.
 
I believe the numbers I have compiled have included the carriers with the most age 65 retirements coming up: Fed Ex, UPS, Delta, AA, US Air East and West, Alaska, Continental, United, Southwest, Air Tran, (with PinnaColAba and Skywest thrown in at about 100 retirements a piece over ten years).

I was wondering if anyone had the data on carriers I may have missed. I would think that the Republic carriers to inlcude Frontier, Eagle, Allegiant, Jet Blue, Sun Country, Omni, World and others I have forgotten may combine for interesting retirement numbers.

Anyone have the data?
 
iF we get another 4 years of Obama I wouldn't be suprised to see. He is hell bent on ruining this country. Alpa is highly select of the carriers they will take. If they can't make enough cash they aren't interested int it.
 
Bandit_Driver said:
iF we get another 4 years of Obama I wouldn't be suprised to see. He is hell bent on ruining this country. Alpa is highly select of the carriers they will take. If they can't make enough cash they aren't interested int it.
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Pretty much, political affiliations aside, both sides are hell bent on turning this country into a police, welfare, global police state. Each on it's own limits prosperity and costs too much damn money. Combined, we'll be on a downward spiral so fast, that by the time the ignorant majority realizes what's going on, we'll already be toast.
 
Bandit_Driver said:
iF we get another 4 years of Obama I wouldn't be suprised to see. He is hell bent on ruining this country.
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Yeah, I'm gonna have to say........that's nothing more than a nonsensical, partisan statement. Move along, nothing to see, or listen to, here....

Bandit_Driver said:
Alpa is highly select of the carriers they will take. If they can't make enough cash they aren't interested int it.
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You can't possibly think this is accurate? Please cite your source as to why you think this might be remotely true?
 
With the retirement numbers, it's hard not to get optimistic about the future. I think we are in for some good times ahead.
 
To speak to the figure of pilots hired due to the new rest/work rules..... I work at QX.... and according to most of the people here, there were only a handful of trips that didn't already comply with the new rules. Total new pilots needed for compliance: Zero.
 
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