“Pax airlines are next”

[///AMG]

It happens. This is an anomaly, not the norm. Street CAs at legacy carriers and sub 4 yr Alaska upgrades? The norm is usually 5+ yrs. Alaska historically (from. What I understand) had always been a 7-8+ yr upgrade.

This is probably comparatively ancient history, but I have met captains that spent 7 years on reserve....as FO's. Still, BEEF's situation would be frustrating. That is a lot of financial uncertainty. Though I doubt he went out and bought the CA house and boat yet.

As for the bigger discussion, I too struggle to imagine a near future that doesn't involve a staggering amount of unemployment for our middle/upper middle class. That is going to have massive 2nd and 3rd order effects. I think if allowed to play out to a logical conclusion, our society will start paying a lot more for those who produce custom goods, and personal services. We've already seen it with folks on social media. Just think about the explosion of OnlyFans, as an example.

Personally I think airlines are safe (including cargo) for quite some time to come, but the business models themselves will need to adjust. Maybe that means more premium travel......smaller loads, cabin retrofits, etc. I don't really know. That's why they don't pay me to run anything.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

It happens. This is an anomaly, not the norm. Street CAs at legacy carriers and sub 4 yr Alaska upgrades? The norm is usually 5+ yrs. Alaska historically (from. What I understand) had always been a 7-8+ yr upgrade.

Well hey good to know you are getting yours while I'm trapped on training pay awaiting OE before being forced to do the same as an FO. When the world is all about you it's all good I guess. Keep hurling insults and pointing out how amazing your own situation is. It really shows the world who you are.

 

[alaskadrifter]

This is probably comparatively ancient history, but I have met captains that spent 7 years on reserve....as FO's. Still, BEEF's situation would be frustrating. That is a lot of financial uncertainty. Though I doubt he went out and bought the CA house and boat yet.

As for the bigger discussion, I too struggle to imagine a near future that doesn't involve a staggering amount of unemployment for our middle/upper middle class. That is going to have massive 2nd and 3rd order effects. I think if allowed to play out to a logical conclusion, our society will start paying a lot more for those who produce custom goods, and personal services. We've already seen it with folks on social media. Just think about the explosion of OnlyFans, as an example.

Personally I think airlines are safe (including cargo) for quite some time to come, but the business models themselves will need to adjust. Maybe that means more premium travel......smaller loads, cabin retrofits, etc. I don't really know. That's why they don't pay me to run anything.

I bet you’re pretty good at running a checklist .

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

This is probably comparatively ancient history, but I have met captains that spent 7 years on reserve....as FO's. Still, BEEF's situation would be frustrating. That is a lot of financial uncertainty. Though I doubt he went out and bought the CA house and boat yet.

As for the bigger discussion, I too struggle to imagine a near future that doesn't involve a staggering amount of unemployment for our middle/upper middle class. That is going to have massive 2nd and 3rd order effects. I think if allowed to play out to a logical conclusion, our society will start paying a lot more for those who produce custom goods, and personal services. We've already seen it with folks on social media. Just think about the explosion of OnlyFans, as an example.

Personally I think airlines are safe (including cargo) for quite some time to come, but the business models themselves will need to adjust. Maybe that means more premium travel......smaller loads, cabin retrofits, etc. I don't really know. That's why they don't pay me to run anything.

It's all just cycles. When the guys you meet were 7 years on reserve as FOs I was throwing bags into the cargo hold of a corporate aircraft for the guys who had lost their pensions and retired just before the retirement age was changed. The thing is I feel like I am always struggling with this career. It's never really gotten better and when something improves slightly it is either just the illusion of change or the thing I was hoping for is snatched away at the last minute.

Really I'd do anything to be my new hire FO I was in sim with. He was so stoked and things are probably going to go unbelievably well for him. When I'm getting kicked down to FO he will still be progressing because so many of our FOs will be leaving. If he just chills out and enjoys the ride he will be fine.

While I'm still on the struggle bus straight to hell.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Well hey good to know you are getting yours while I'm trapped on training pay awaiting OE before being forced to do the same as an FO. When the world is all about you it's all good I guess. Keep hurling insults and pointing out how amazing your own situation is. It really shows the world who you are.

You know what I didn’t do? Beotch about being a 4 yr FO.

Some of us spent a decade plus as FO with no chance of an upgrade. You’ll have to excuse the woe-is-me going in one ear, out the other. The last 5-7 year hires have no idea how good they got it. For the record, I was hired in 2012, upgraded in 2018. And was a RJ FO 2007-2012. 11 yrs to see the left seat. So I’m familiar with prolonged time as FO, you aren’t alone in that regard.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

You know what I didn’t do? Beotch about being a 4 yr FO.

Some of us spent a decade plus as FO with no chance of an upgrade. You’ll have to excuse the woe-is-me going in one ear, out the other. The last 5-7 year hires have no idea how good they got it. For the record, I was hired in 2012, upgraded in 2018. And was a RJ FO 2007-2012. 11 yrs to see the left seat. So I’m familiar with prolonged time as FO, you aren’t alone in that regard.

Yeah I must have somehow missed all those bad times flying professionally from 2004 until now... Schrödinger's Pilot Career.

 

[Sculprit]

I mean don't let me ruin anyone's evening of doom scrolling but Dem free tiddies even non ai ones

I had to do a double take at the comment to verify that it’s wasn’t @ChasenSFO posting this.

 

[///AMG]

It's all just cycles. When the guys you meet were 7 years on reserve as FOs I was throwing bags into the cargo hold of a corporate aircraft for the guys who had lost their pensions and retired just before the retirement age was changed.

Yeah, obviously this is a feast or famine kind of place. Lots of my navy buds had dads who lost their pensions. I guess I am probably like your sim partner, though hopefully as a casual observer for the last 20 years, my expectations aren't unrealistic. That having been said, I do enjoy it. The most chill flying I've done for a long time, mostly. I was busting my ass for 15+ hrs a day, trying to get fully qualified in my old aircraft, when those guys were on reserve. I appreciate the fact that I spent only like 3 months on reserve as a real statistical outlier, but I also would say that even being on reserve is way less painful than what I got used to in my old world. And it certainly pays better by the hour (though very much only by the hour)

 

[ahw01]

All I’m saying is it’s what you make of it.

The 82% aren’t talking a beating. The angry 18 are angry because they are too senior to leave and throw tantrums when someone else gets even one penny more.

Meanwhile, some of us are absolutely milking it. I have no less than 14-15 days off and my Jan-June credit YTD is 643. Absolutely making bank. Or I could complain nonstop I guess. I’d rather work the system and make cheddar instead.

it's not all about you.

 

[phill1174]

When I read this I thought "oh the UPS pilots must be in contract negotiations." Since the economic doom experts come out of the woodwork during contract negotiations. Surprisingly the UPS pilots do not appear to be in contract negotiations since the contract was extended until 2025.

Checking out the banter on my airlines internal forum the economic doomers are taking quite the beating. Since the recession that still has not materialized was a major talking point for those pushing a yes vote in the most hostile way possible.

The doom and gloom folks are thinking the company is making these cuts to spite the teamsters who are in negotiations. Looking at our peers in Memphis and the loads I’ve been flying around i doubt that’s the case but what do I know, I just get paid to fly them.

There’s a few on our forum also. They’ve been hollering recession as long as I’ve been here. They’ll be right at some point and it’ll make them feel good about themselves I guess.

 

[phill1174]

Office jobs will be automated far before we are.

I've been hearing the doom and gloom since I got into the industry. At this point, I don't care anymore.

This is the point I’m getting to. Just make the decisions that make me happy and enjoy the ride.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

it's not all about you.

Never said it was.

 

[ZapBrannigan]

You know what I didn’t do? Beotch about being a 4 yr FO.

Some of us spent a decade plus as FO with no chance of an upgrade. You’ll have to excuse the woe-is-me going in one ear, out the other. The last 5-7 year hires have no idea how good they got it. For the record, I was hired in 2012, upgraded in 2018. And was a RJ FO 2007-2012. 11 yrs to see the left seat. So I’m familiar with prolonged time as FO, you aren’t alone in that regard.

Amateur.

I spent 26 years flying for 10 companies before my first Part 121 left seat.

I can’t even wrap my head around how good the new folks have it these days.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

Never said it was.

Your constant lack of empathy and pointing to your own career and personal finances is in fact you saying, it's all about you.

 

[zmiller4]

I like reddit for the specific subs…white water kayaking,

I take it you’re a boater?

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Your constant lack of empathy and pointing to your own career and personal finances is in fact you saying, it's all about you.

It’s a seniority system. Those are the rules, I didn’t make ‘em up.

 

[Soku39]

I take it you’re a boater?

I'll be the only black guy on the river in Ohiopyle every weekend allll summer long.

 

[roundout]

It’s a seniority system. Those are the rules, I didn’t make ‘em up.

Once again @Cherokee_Cruiser is served up a golden opportunity on a gilded service platter to look inward and reflect

Once again @Cherokee_Cruiser drops trou and defecates on the table, declaring loudly "I don't like vegetables AND I WON'T EAT THEM!!"

 

[zmiller4]

I'll be the only black guy on the river in Ohiopyle every weekend allll summer long.

Excellent! I instructed for two summers in DC, and we basically worked Saturdays and Sundays…which meant Mondays and Fridays on the upper were a thing as well, especially once the Potomac got low.

Ohiopyle seemed like an awesome scene. My bachelor party was the Falls Race 2009 followed by an upper run.

Haven’t paddled much since moving to TX almost a decade ago, but just bought a new to me creek boat yesterday and am looking to make some NC trips this summer.

 

[Soku39]

Excellent! I instructed for two summers in DC, and we basically worked Saturdays and Sundays…which meant Mondays and Fridays on the upper were a thing as well, especially once the Potomac got low.

Ohiopyle seemed like an awesome scene. My bachelor party was the Falls Race 2009 followed by an upper run.

Haven’t paddled much since moving to TX almost a decade ago, but just bought a new to me creek boat yesterday and am looking to make some NC trips this summer.

I feel so blessed to be as close to western NC, the gorge and Ohiopyle as I am, not just for boat stuff, but for general nature, dirtbiking and screwing off in a cabin with the girlfriend every now and then. I fly for the airline with the "masterbase" in DFW and people just love that slab of concrete that's twice the size of Connecticut so much, I personally don't get it.

There's been so much rain the last few years that the are never low, they even open up the spillway on the upper in the fall and it turns into a super nice class 5 for the week or two that they do it, it's awesome.

I hope the creek boat is fun, could probably even use it on the Nanthala if you get out before the last class 3/4 above the main take out.