My Theory on Regional Pilot Shortage

[derg]

In 20 years, I bet they'll still be fighting over how to fund high-speed rail. All our infrastructure improvements have basically ground to a halt over the past decade, and I feel it very unlikely we'll see improvement without decimating the status quo... and the days of private enterprise taking risks to build infrastructure have been over for a long time, simply because there are other things to do that are more immediately profitable.

This isn't a "good old days" thing, it's just a thing. I still feel that we need a strong figure who can galvanize the people and give them something to believe in... but we're in an era of choosing sides. The battle lines have been drawn, and "you're either with us or against us." ... so any potential leader will be henpecked to bits before he has a chance to stand up and lead.

About the airlines, we'll just have to see what happens.

~Fox

What the Fox said.

 

[WestIndian425]

Even without the new 1500 hr rule, the cost of flight training has risen tremendously over the last few years. Considering this economy, I would think it's quite discouraging for new aviators and can severely weaken the supply of new pilots.

 

[rockman2343@aol.com]

I think the next 2 years will be very telling, but I don't think they'll exhaust the pilot supply. They might have to take a guy with some issues.

 

[JordanD]

What the Fox said.

Dingdingdingdingdingadingading!

 

[scooter2525]

Dingdingdingdingdingadingading!

STOPITSTOPITSTOPIT!!!!

 

[Deleted member 27505]

So I was talking with some of my crashpad buddies this week about how my company wants to hire 400 and has had less than 10 take the offer.

We know that the pool for regional airline talent is low, especially now for the 1500 hour rul going into effect. Now with the news about the relaxed Chinese PPL standards (frightening), the CFI route just became even more difficult.

Here's what I think will have to happen:

The regional airlines (or their Capacity Purchase Partners) will have to establish ab-initio flight schools. Think of the Lufthansa school in Goodyear, or the old SABENA flight school. The airline will conduct a thorough screening process, and once it comes to terms with an applicant, will sign him/her up to a training contract...basically indentured servitude.
The academy will hire the initial group of instructors to get the machine into motion with the agreement that at 1500TT they are to be transferred into the line pilot side of the operation.
The applicants are taken from zero to CFI in however many months, and as per the terms of their agreement, they become CFIs at the school once they graduate, to instruct to 1500TT until they feed up to the airline.

I know it sounds assenine when I type it out, but if you think about it that is the only way that regional airlines will be able to halfway control their supply of pilots in the coming decade.
Yes I know you could simply "pay a decent wage" that "keeps you off of food stamps", but even if all the regionals upped the pay scale to begin at 40K yearly, it would exhaust the available pilot supply in a short while.

Thoughts on my theory?
Other theories?

I think all new American pilots after 2016 will be Chinese.

 

[derg]

Dingdingdingdingdingadingading!

See, I was merely agreeing with what @acrofo said. You made the connection!

 

[3green]

I'll tell you my take on any so-called "shortage". By 2025 (Ford auto estimates) fully antonomous vehicles will be available. By then the auto industry will have sold the general public that computers are safer than people driving. People become comfortable and believe automation makes things safer. Why do I bring this up? Because people will by then willingly accept the notion of single-pilot 121 operations being safe. Hence, those thousands of jobs everyone hopes exist won't. Airlines and aircraft manufacturers will sell the idea of human pilots being less safe. So kill all those job vacancies you hope exist in 15 years... especially in light of all the recent crashes involving human error. I know it sounds far fetched, but who would've thought UAV's would've been lobbing missiles at terrorist in mountain enclaves and it works. Food for thought folks.

 

[Deleted member 27505]

In 20 years high speed rail will eliminate the need for regionals altogether.

You got the number for that train driving school?

 

[Deleted member 27505]

I'll tell you my take on any so-called "shortage". By 2025 (Ford auto estimates) fully antonomous vehicles will be available. By then the auto industry will have sold the general public that computers are safer than people driving. People become comfortable and believe automation makes things safer. Why do I bring this up? Because people will by then willingly accept the notion of single-pilot 121 operations being safe. Hence, those thousands of jobs everyone hopes exist won't. Airlines and aircraft manufacturers will sell the idea of human pilots being less safe. So kill all those job vacancies you hope exist in 15 years... especially in light of all the recent crashes involving human error. I know it sounds far fetched, but who would've thought UAV's would've been lobbing missiles at terrorist in mountain enclaves and it works. Food for thought folks.

Will those computers also tell jokes and be generally obnoxious in order to keep me awake during those 14hr single pilot flights?

 

[ChasenSFO]

I think all new American pilots after 2016 will be Chinese.

And snow plows will just routinely scrape the wreckage off the runways twice a week.

 

[PGT]

I'll tell you my take on any so-called "shortage". By 2025 (Ford auto estimates) fully antonomous vehicles will be available. By then the auto industry will have sold the general public that computers are safer than people driving. People become comfortable and believe automation makes things safer. Why do I bring this up? Because people will by then willingly accept the notion of single-pilot 121 operations being safe. Hence, those thousands of jobs everyone hopes exist won't. Airlines and aircraft manufacturers will sell the idea of human pilots being less safe. So kill all those job vacancies you hope exist in 15 years... especially in light of all the recent crashes involving human error. I know it sounds far fetched, but who would've thought UAV's would've been lobbing missiles at terrorist in mountain enclaves and it works. Food for thought folks.

This. Newer generations have grown up with computers so it will be easier to sell the idea. All it takes is one slick airline CEO that's good with marketing, like a Richard Branson & Steve Jobs mix.

 

[Calvin and Hobbs Meter]

Will those computers also tell jokes and be generally obnoxious in order to keep me awake during those 14hr single pilot flights?

It has already begun!

http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/12/10/meet-the-robot-telemarketer-who-denies-shes-a-robot/

 

[jgheggie]

My guess - Congress lets Chinese and Korean pilots fly for US carriers on guest visas...

Why would they want to? With the demand for pilots sky rocketing in Asia and wages waaaay better than the US, as well as the fact that Asian carriers offer to pay for flight training. Why would Chinese pilots choose to leave their home country to work here? Asian airlines are already recruiting U.S. captains

 

[jgheggie]

Here's a thought...

All of those "gulfstream" and "eagle jet" programs offer "pay to sit right seat" type of gigs.

So what's so far fetched about the airlines possibly paying for a new commercial pilot to "ride along" with one of these companies until they reach 1500. I'm sure these programs would love to sign a contract with an airline as a feeder program. It makes sense to me. Wouldn't cost the airlines nearly as much as ab-intio training. And from 250hrs-1500hrs the "recruit" would get a hell of a lot more experience flying cargo then he/she would instructing.

What about logging time you say??? Well the airlines basically run the FAA. So I'm sure if there is a serious pilot "shortage", the airlines can get the faa to allow this to be logable time. Or you could always have a cfi so it's dual given.

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

Here's a thought...

All of those "gulfstream" and "eagle jet" programs offer "pay to sit right seat" type of gigs.

So what's so far fetched about the airlines possibly paying for a new commercial pilot to "ride along" with one of these companies until they reach 1500. I'm sure these programs would love to sign a contract with an airline as a feeder program. It makes sense to me. Wouldn't cost the airlines nearly as much as ab-intio training. And from 250hrs-1500hrs the "recruit" would get a hell of a lot more experience flying cargo then he/she would instructing.

What about logging time you say??? Well the airlines basically run the FAA. So I'm sure if there is a serious pilot "shortage", the airlines can get the faa to allow this to be logable time. Or you could always have a cfi so it's dual given.

Cathay Pacific already does this with their second officer program.

 

[Boris Badenov]

The one thing that you can bank on is that whatever "solution" is found to the supposed "pilot shortage" will not be beneficial to the meat in the seat. Ab-initio or some other form of indentured servitude is my guess, but whatever form it takes will involve lots of promises for the future for a little pain right now. Followed by broken promises and a lot of pain in perpetuity. Pilots aren't the most long-term thinkers in the world, and wannabes are even worse, as we've all seen over the last ~30 years. If P.T. Barnum had been shilling "pilot careers" rather than hucking lion tamers and bearded ladies, he'd have been freaking President. Maybe Emperor.

There's a sucker born every minute. And most of them at some point think "Work 5 days a month flying to Yurop, make $500k/year, and engage in debauched Roman Orgies with legions of hot Stews on every layover? And all I have to do is sign away my life? Where, I say, where do I sign?"

 

[jgheggie]

Cathay Pacific already does this with their second officer program.

Yes! My point...I couldn't remember who but I knew one of the foreign carriers did this with ameriflight or one of the the cargo companies. I can see domestic carriers doing this if needed.

 

[Boris Badenov]

I still feel that we need a strong figure who can galvanize the people and give them something to believe in...

I "liked" your post because I thought the prognostication was pretty right. But damn "strong figures", panaceas, and everything that comes with them. Just more of the same. I do not want to be (nor will I be) "galvanized", I want to be left alone to live in peace and work to improve my life and the lives of those around me, as we are all, IMHO, wont to do, when left the screw alone. I was born with zinc already applied to my iron, thank you, no assistance required. The Galvanic Figures can peddle their damned wares elsewhere. Misery, tyranny, and oppression, every time. How have we not figured this out by now? I don't need someone to explain to me what I should "believe in", whatever that means. And neither do you.

Damit.

 

[Deleted member 27505]

I "liked" your post because I thought the prognostication was pretty right. But damn "strong figures", panaceas, and everything that comes with them. Just more of the same. I do not want to be (nor will I be) "galvanized", I want to be left alone to live in peace and work to improve my life and the lives of those around me, as we are all, IMHO, wont to do, when left the screw alone. I was born with zinc already applied to my iron, thank you, no assistance required. The Galvanic Figures can peddle their damned wares elsewhere. Misery, tyranny, and oppression, every time. How have we not figured this out by now? I don't need someone to explain to me what I should "believe in", whatever that means. And neither do you.

Damit.

Sadly, most folks do need someone to tell them what to believe in. Without such, they'd be merely bereft. It's easy to fill a vacuum. That's why folks are so readily sold tyranny, modernity, enemies, consumerism, virtual reality/religion/drugs and other vacuous hogwash.