My Theory on Regional Pilot Shortage

jwp_145

GhostRider in the Sky
So I was talking with some of my crashpad buddies this week about how my company wants to hire 400 and has had less than 10 take the offer.

We know that the pool for regional airline talent is low, especially now for the 1500 hour rul going into effect. Now with the news about the relaxed Chinese PPL standards (frightening), the CFI route just became even more difficult.

Here's what I think will have to happen:

The regional airlines (or their Capacity Purchase Partners) will have to establish ab-initio flight schools. Think of the Lufthansa school in Goodyear, or the old SABENA flight school. The airline will conduct a thorough screening process, and once it comes to terms with an applicant, will sign him/her up to a training contract...basically indentured servitude.
The academy will hire the initial group of instructors to get the machine into motion with the agreement that at 1500TT they are to be transferred into the line pilot side of the operation.
The applicants are taken from zero to CFI in however many months, and as per the terms of their agreement, they become CFIs at the school once they graduate, to instruct to 1500TT until they feed up to the airline.

I know it sounds assenine when I type it out, but if you think about it that is the only way that regional airlines will be able to halfway control their supply of pilots in the coming decade.
Yes I know you could simply "pay a decent wage" that "keeps you off of food stamps", but even if all the regionals upped the pay scale to begin at 40K yearly, it would exhaust the available pilot supply in a short while.

Thoughts on my theory?
Other theories?
 
It's more likely (I think) that they'd strengthen the partnership with big box schools such as ATP and offer to subsidize a part of the training with a contractual agreement. Maybe contribute $10k as long as the student signed on to work for that airline for 2-years or something. Incorporate the line training so as to cut into some of those costs. A program such as this would still have plenty of domestic students for CFI purposes, and even a small subsidy would be enough to get the SJS crowd to sign a contract. Then once you get them two years, the odds of them leaving for another regional (and starting at the bottom) are slim.

If I'm a school like ATP, I do my best to market quick and efficient CFI to 1,500 hours as my lead in, coupled with subsidized training upon completion and contract. It's the perfect package to keep the supply up, and wages down. The regional model isn't built around paying a livable wage. It's like the whole fast food concept - if you pay fast food employees $15 an hour, then the subsequent rise in menu prices will just push people to go to Chili's.
 
So I was talking with some of my crashpad buddies this week about how my company wants to hire 400 and has had less than 10 take the offer.

We know that the pool for regional airline talent is low, especially now for the 1500 hour rul going into effect. Now with the news about the relaxed Chinese PPL standards (frightening), the CFI route just became even more difficult.

Here's what I think will have to happen:

The regional airlines (or their Capacity Purchase Partners) will have to establish ab-initio flight schools. Think of the Lufthansa school in Goodyear, or the old SABENA flight school. The airline will conduct a thorough screening process, and once it comes to terms with an applicant, will sign him/her up to a training contract...basically indentured servitude.
The academy will hire the initial group of instructors to get the machine into motion with the agreement that at 1500TT they are to be transferred into the line pilot side of the operation.
The applicants are taken from zero to CFI in however many months, and as per the terms of their agreement, they become CFIs at the school once they graduate, to instruct to 1500TT until they feed up to the airline.

I know it sounds assenine when I type it out, but if you think about it that is the only way that regional airlines will be able to halfway control their supply of pilots in the coming decade.
Yes I know you could simply "pay a decent wage" that "keeps you off of food stamps", but even if all the regionals upped the pay scale to begin at 40K yearly, it would exhaust the available pilot supply in a short while.

Thoughts on my theory?
Other theories?
Honestly, whatever makes the least sense is what will happen in my opinion.

I'm expecting to see pay for jobs again; it's the exact opposite of what I think should happen so that's probably what will happen.
 
No, even with a carrier running their own training academy, it still doesn't get around the math not working. The reason the math doesn't work - even with importing foreign students, there aren't enough training hours given in the US to produce enough 1500 pilots in a year to satisfy demand. (In round numbers, there are about 4 million hours dual given in the USA annually). Non-training GA hours have also been going down sharply for two decades. It is hard to find experience, because there is less experience out there.

There are plenty of experienced pilots already. The scarcity is in pilots wiling to work for cheap.

My guess - Congress lets Chinese and Korean pilots fly for US carriers on guest visas...
 
No, even with a carrier running their own training academy, it still doesn't get around the math not working. The reason the math doesn't work - even with importing foreign students, there aren't enough training hours given in the US to produce enough 1500 pilots in a year to satisfy demand. (In round numbers, there are about 4 million hours dual given in the USA annually). Non-training GA hours have also been going down sharply for two decades. It is hard to find experience, because there is less experience out there.

There are plenty of experienced pilots already. The scarcity is in pilots wiling to work for cheap.

My guess - Congress lets Chinese and Korean pilots fly for US carriers on guest visas...
Could happen...

asiana-flight-214.jpg
 
Plenty of discussion in crewrooms this side of the pond that those of us who can't enter the green card lottery or marry Americans, there might be work visas on offer for ATPL holders.

Can but dream...
 
I haven't read to much about it, but how will the Chinese ppl rules effect us? Just wondering, haven't had a moment to read that full thread yet.


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I think its very possible, its a business model that works in other countries so why not here.

However I think the regionals or any airline in the US taking this route will be at about 15-20 years off when they won't have any other choice left.
 
My theory aside from the business end? There are very few incentives to attract anyone. The word is out and more people are choosing other career paths and those younger pilots are finding better paying flying gigs with better QOL away from 121. Some people are even leaving the industry altogether.
 
God forbid if the regionals paid more for their pilots.
Doesn't matter if it's an Omni 757 or a Colgan 1900, there are enough pilots will work for sub par wages to keep the status quo... at least for now :).

Sometimes, if they are real desperate, they'll pay for their job on the 1900. Desperate for what? A short cut.
 
Doesn't matter if it's an Omni 757 or a Colgan 1900, there are enough pilots will work for sub par wages to keep the status quo... at least for now :).

Sometimes, if they are real desperate, they'll pay for their job on the 1900. Desperate for what? A short cut.

Agreed
 
If we are spending on infrastructure I vote we get the house feed internet out of the 90's.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-27/u-s-internet-users-pay-more-for-slower-service.html

That's something else I see happening within 5-7 years:

1) Companies shift more employees to work-from-home models and dump their brick & mortar liabilities
2) Urban centralization fades (thanks hipsters!) and the new white flight bypasses the now decaying inner and outer ring suburbs for rural areas
3) Increased demand for high-speed Internet services in traditionally underserved rural areas
4) Expansion of 50-100 mile transportation infrastructure (principally rail).
5) Eventual expansion to cover 100-200 mile range (cutting into the regional market)
 
In 20 years high speed rail will eliminate the need for regionals altogether.

In 20 years, I bet they'll still be fighting over how to fund high-speed rail. All our infrastructure improvements have basically ground to a halt over the past decade, and I feel it very unlikely we'll see improvement without decimating the status quo... and the days of private enterprise taking risks to build infrastructure have been over for a long time, simply because there are other things to do that are more immediately profitable.

This isn't a "good old days" thing, it's just a thing. I still feel that we need a strong figure who can galvanize the people and give them something to believe in... but we're in an era of choosing sides. The battle lines have been drawn, and "you're either with us or against us." ... so any potential leader will be henpecked to bits before he has a chance to stand up and lead.

About the airlines, we'll just have to see what happens.

~Fox
 
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