Let's hope they are right!


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Let\'s hope they are right!

Airlines to End Losing Streak in 2004, According to Air Transport World Magazine

WASHINGTON, D.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--12/30/2003--Air Transport World Magazine, the leading monthly magazine covering the global airline industry, predicts in its January issue that airlines in 2004 will end three consecutive years of losses. While good profits are anticipated from carriers in the Asia/Pacific region, in the US only low cost carriers such as Southwest and JetBlue can expect healthy earnings. The older network carriers as a group can expect, at best, a break-even year, says J.A. Donoghue, editorial director of the ATW Media Group. A similar dichotomy exists in Europe, he added.

"The revenue expectations upon which network carriers built their business model is a thing of the past," Donoghue said. "Ticket prices will rise slightly but will never return to the levels seen in the 1990s. Network carriers must cut costs further to become profitable charging today's fares. The slight ticket price increase expected in 2004, however, will be adequate to take budget airlines back to pre-2001 unit revenue levels and return them to business as usual while network airlines struggle to break even."

In ATW's January issue Donoghue predicts that, if the world can avoid further outbreaks of disease and terrorism, airlines in 2004 will end a three-year, $30 billion losing streak to make $3.2 billion. US airlines as a group, including the budget carriers, will achieve slightly better than break-even, earning $400 million net revenues, excluding special items.

World airline traffic will rise 6% in revenue-passenger kilometers--an RPK is one paying passenger flown one kilometer--and 5% in passenger numbers, while cargo will remain strong, rising 6%. US airlines will see 4.5% more passengers and a 5% rise in RPKs, with cargo up 5%, but in the US and Europe the growing influences of internet ticket sales and low cost carrier competition will hold fares down.

Air Transport World is the leading monthly trade magazine serving the airline and commercial aircraft manufacturing industries. Published by Penton Media, Inc. (OTCBB:pTON), of Cleveland, Ohio, it is read by more than 200,000 professionals around the world involved in all facets of the airline industry.

CONTACT:Air Transport World J.A. Donoghue, 202-659-8500 ex.110 E-mail: JDonoghue@Penton.com

SOURCE: Air Transport World Magazine
Re: Let\'s hope they are right!

Let's hope for the best.

I read on another board that US Airways is thinking about doing away with MidAtlantic and bringing all the new smaller Airbus onto it's own certificate. If they did this, it would bring all the furloughs up to a projected 98 hire date back.