Info on "New Pilots" entering the industry

I've been instructing for 7 years now and I can tell right now is the worst I've seen as far as US student enrollment. If it wasn't for the foreign enrollment then most flight schools would be out of business.
 
I'm fixing to deep freeze myself so one can pull me out and defrost me when the time is needed for pilots if ever.
 
Yeah, I heard that same line 8 years ago from what was the Comair Academy. Wasn't 100% true, and it's not 100% true now. IMO, the big flight schools just want your money. They don't care if you become a safe, accomplished pilot or even if you get good quality instruction. They just want you through the program to make way for the next guy with the Sallie Mae papers filled out and ready to go.

As an instructor, I always tried to come up with a ball park price (with a little extra added on just in case) for my students at the front end. If they felt that was too much, we'd work on trying to trim it down using the sim or web sites instead of books. I never really harped on the price b/c I'm a "glass half full" type of guy, I guess.


I would say it was 90% true. Age 65 just caused a 5 year delay. But we all saw the madhouse that was happening last year with hiring.
 
My latest aviation mag (not sure which one) said "staying profficient on 50 hours per year" or something to that effect.

50 hours per year at a national average rental price of $100/hr is $5,000.00!!! That doesnt include them saying you should spend some of that time with a CFI.

Nothing like getting your PVT for fun and spending five grand a year flying a 152 alone just trying to maintain profficiency and have fun. I dont even think I make 5K a year.
 
think about instrument flight with little time during the 6 months you are proficient. Not the safest thing. I know after i passed my IFR ride i was not about to go shoot an ILS by my self down to minimums. Legally i'm IFR current for the next two months but there is no way i would fly in IMC with out an IPC.
 
What is the reason for AOPA wanting people to motivate others to start flying when the industry is flooded with pilots and much, so much cheaper to drive for the private pilot going on vacation once a year or just playing around?


Membership fees. For every person that learns to fly, that's another potential AOPA member.....
 
What is the reason for AOPA wanting people to motivate others to start flying when the industry is flooded with pilots and much, so much cheaper to drive for the private pilot going on vacation once a year or just playing around?


To keep the GA Industry alive. It is in the best interests of not only the aviation industry but every Joe who just wants to have the freedom and
privilege to fly an airplane wherever and whenever they want. Without new members, the anti-GA folks will turn every small town airport into a Wal-Mart.
 
To keep the GA Industry alive. It is in the best interests of not only the aviation industry but every Joe who just wants to have the freedom and
privilege to fly an airplane wherever and whenever they want. Without new members, the anti-GA folks will turn every small town airport into a Wal-Mart.

I figured it was about money but was worth asking and getting more information such as above. Thanks. I would hate to believe it's only about making money. Does the member number have to be on a constant climb to keep the anti-GA folks at a distance? How many anti-GA folks are out there. I recently worked at a small town airport and some of the town people don't know that they have a small airport in town. They would say, "We have an airport?" Does it matter if the airports are state funded or non state funded for the anti-GA to push on?

I'm not sweating the 50 hours a year on staying current. I went about 2 years without flying and got back in for a while. I didn't forget how and didn't need 50 hours to dust off. Maybe because I thought about it every other day. I don't make 5k a year either...to busy flying for free with weekend Joe or making chump change pushing people out of an aircraft. Tell me I shouldn't fly for free and I'll say I don't ...I fly to stay current, lol. Maybe they should push the age back down to 60 :)sarcasm:)! 65 is a good number but only if I make it there with medical :D.
 
My latest aviation mag (not sure which one) said "staying profficient on 50 hours per year" or something to that effect.

50 hours per year at a national average rental price of $100/hr is $5,000.00!!! That doesnt include them saying you should spend some of that time with a CFI.

Nothing like getting your PVT for fun and spending five grand a year flying a 152 alone just trying to maintain profficiency and have fun. I dont even think I make 5K a year.

This is exactly what I talked about in my previous post. We straight up tell people it's too expensive, when frankly, for a lot of people, it's not.

Ever looked at depreciation on a new Corvette? How about a Harley? Or what about a boat? Ever thought about the extra gas, maintenance, and depreciation associated with driving a new SUV versus an old compact car? Somehow lots of people manage to throw away $5k/year on those things.

It's all about priorities. We tell people that flying isn't worth it. I mean, shoot, it's not like it's any fun. It's not like it gives one a sense of accomplishment. Heck, I'm bored out of my mind every time I go flying. :sarcasm:

And beyond all this, I don't understand why we have to project our personal financial situation on everyone else in the world. What's outrageously expensive for me might be chump change to somebody else.

Just last night I was talking to a customer about good first planes for him. He's willing to drop up to $200k. We talked a lot about late model 182s, or possibly retrofitting an older six seater with the G600 glass panel conversion. Is that a decision I expect to make for myself? Probably not for many years to come, if ever. However, I wasn't thinking about *my* finances when giving him advice, I was thinking about *his*.
 
Does the member number have to be on a constant climb to keep the anti-GA folks at a distance? How many anti-GA folks are out there.

Most members are the older crowd and since they are droppin like flies, new blood is needed to keep AOPA's membership up. The smaller the association, the less clout it has on capital hill. Without that clout, you would be pulling up to a toll booth at the hold short lines about now. You think it's expensive to fly now? It could get worse.

You can consider every retart that buys or builds a house next to the perimeter fence of your favorite airport and then complains about the noise Anti-GA! Google Chicago Meigs Field and you can learn a thing or three about Anti-GA.
 
Yes cfi's should get a more well rounded view of a potential student before they jump into the whole "it's expensive rant". But it has become quite a bit more expensive to learn to fly in the last two years. when I started two years ago the instructor rates were 40 an hour and the c-172sp was 110. now the instructor is 60 an hour and the plane 140. I did my training in central florida so I don't know how that compares to the rest of the country.
that and when you start, you dream of hopping in the plane and just taking off to where ever your hearts desire. then you start to find out how many rules, regs and laws their are and it sort of kills the whole freedom aspect of flying.
 
My school (Dowling) is heavily indian populated from many exchange students from india taking accelerated training ( and getting uniforms when the new ones don't even know what an aileron is), and it seems I am always seeing new faces.I hope I get a uniform :nana2:.
 
My schools is 85% Indian. We also have a handful of latinos, and I'm probably only 1 of 4 "americans" at the school, and only 1 of 2 "americans" on a quasi-full time basis with career flying an end goal.

I've heard from a few CFI's at my school that the indian jobs are drying up and I really doubt my school would stay in business if they all left.
 
I hear most of the Indian students do their basic training (up to CMEL) here then go back home to sit in a sim for 2 years training.
 
From what I hear they are in the US on a 6 month visa, and in that time the go from zero time to CMEL and then go back and apparently there is some airline that hires them pretty much as soon as they land back home. Most of these people are pretty young, early 20's at most, and of course their parents are loaded back home so they can afford the price tag to send them over.
 
Every year, the FAA releases statistics on current amount of certificates held, new certificates issued, and average age of active pilot by category.

There are trends that are very obvious from the statistics.
  1. The amount of pilots whose highest certificate is a private is decreasing.
  2. The amount of commercial pilot licenses and airline transport licenses issued per year are increasing

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From 2006 to 2007, the number of commercial pilot certificates issued increased from 8,687 to 9,318, a 7% increase.

From 2006 to 2007, the number of airline transport pilot certificates issued increased from 4,748 to 5,918, a 25% increase.

In 2007, there were 92,175 active flight instructor certificates. That is the highest number recorded over the past ten years, up from 79,171 in 1998, or a 16% increase.

The number of pilots whose highest certificate is commercial or airline transport have remained fairly constant over the past 10 years.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In 2007, there were 20,299 new private pilot certificates issued. That is about the same number as 2006, and down from an average of 26,000 new private certificates per year from 1998-2002, a decrease of about 28%.

In 2007, the number of pilots whose highest certificate is a private was 211,096. That is down from 258,749 in 1999, a decrease of 23%.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My best interpretation of this data is fewer people are flying for fun (BAD), and yet despite the crisis within the aviation industry, more people are learning to fly for a career (BAD).

I guess that load of BS the flight schools are selling new students about this "pilot shortage" really worked. There is no such thing as a pilot shortage. There never will be a pilot shortage at the good aviation jobs. The only "shortage" that may ever exist is of pilots willing to work for abysmal pay (20-30k a year).


I really want to see the 2008 statistics. The average price of oil in 2007 was about $73 a barrel, while the average price in 2008 is about $120 a barrel. Plus the tightening of the credit market might actually help reverse these statistics.

I would really like to see more people getting their pilots license and flying for fun. GA is such an amazing hobby. I feel bad for all those pilot factory produced pilots that have not experienced the true GA experience (flying tons of different aircraft, visiting new airports, new places, going for the $100 hamburger, taking friends up on sight seeing trips, taking the plane somewhere for the weekend, taking people up for their first ride in a small GA airplane, etc...).

My biggest fear is that despite the massive increase in fuel prices, and the horrible slump the aviation industry is facing, more people than ever are wanting to enter the industry for a career. That tells me they have succumb to that pilot factory type marketing and have no idea what they are truly getting into. Then are stuck with massive 50-60k loans, a 20k a year job, and willing to work for next to nothing just for flight time or a meager amount of money to just "get by." I would much rather see a more educated crowd entering the aviation industry, and have more people flying for fun to protect GA.
 
Every year, the FAA releases statistics on current amount of certificates held, new certificates issued, and average age of active pilot by category.

There are trends that are very obvious from the statistics.
  1. The amount of pilots whose highest certificate is a private is decreasing.
  2. The amount of commercial pilot licenses and airline transport licenses issued per year are increasing

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From 2006 to 2007, the number of commercial pilot certificates issued increased from 8,687 to 9,318, a 7% increase.

From 2006 to 2007, the number of airline transport pilot certificates issued increased from 4,748 to 5,918, a 25% increase.

In 2007, there were 92,175 active flight instructor certificates. That is the highest number recorded over the past ten years, up from 79,171 in 1998, or a 16% increase.

The number of pilots whose highest certificate is commercial or airline transport have remained fairly constant over the past 10 years.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In 2007, there were 20,299 new private pilot certificates issued. That is about the same number as 2006, and down from an average of 26,000 new private certificates per year from 1998-2002, a decrease of about 28%.

In 2007, the number of pilots whose highest certificate is a private was 211,096. That is down from 258,749 in 1999, a decrease of 23%.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My best interpretation of this data is fewer people are flying for fun (BAD), and yet despite the crisis within the aviation industry, more people are learning to fly for a career (BAD).

I guess that load of BS the flight schools are selling new students about this "pilot shortage" really worked. There is no such thing as a pilot shortage. There never will be a pilot shortage at the good aviation jobs. The only "shortage" that may ever exist is of pilots willing to work for abysmal pay (20-30k a year).


I really want to see the 2008 statistics. The average price of oil in 2007 was about $73 a barrel, while the average price in 2008 is about $120 a barrel. Plus the tightening of the credit market might actually help reverse these statistics.

I would really like to see more people getting their pilots license and flying for fun. GA is such an amazing hobby. I feel bad for all those pilot factory produced pilots that have not experienced the true GA experience (flying tons of different aircraft, visiting new airports, new places, going for the $100 hamburger, taking friends up on sight seeing trips, taking the plane somewhere for the weekend, taking people up for their first ride in a small GA airplane, etc...).

My biggest fear is that despite the massive increase in fuel prices, and the horrible slump the aviation industry is facing, more people than ever are wanting to enter the industry for a career. That tells me they have succumb to that pilot factory type marketing and have no idea what they are truly getting into. Then are stuck with massive 50-60k loans, a 20k a year job, and willing to work for next to nothing just for flight time or a meager amount of money to just "get by." I would much rather see a more educated crowd entering the aviation industry, and have more people flying for fun to protect GA.
but that data doesn't include the amount of foreign pilots getting their commercials does it?, for a fact Air China has over 1,000 pilots training in the US right now.
 
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