Every year, the FAA releases statistics on current amount of certificates held, new certificates issued, and average age of active pilot by category.
There are trends that are very obvious from the statistics.
- The amount of pilots whose highest certificate is a private is decreasing.
- The amount of commercial pilot licenses and airline transport licenses issued per year are increasing
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From 2006 to 2007, the number of commercial pilot certificates issued increased from 8,687 to 9,318, a 7% increase.
From 2006 to 2007, the number of airline transport pilot certificates issued increased from 4,748 to 5,918, a 25% increase.
In 2007, there were 92,175 active flight instructor certificates. That is the highest number recorded over the past ten years, up from 79,171 in 1998, or a 16% increase.
The number of pilots whose highest certificate is commercial or airline transport have remained fairly constant over the past 10 years.
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In 2007, there were 20,299 new private pilot certificates issued. That is about the same number as 2006, and down from an average of 26,000 new private certificates per year from 1998-2002, a decrease of about 28%.
In 2007, the number of pilots whose highest certificate is a private was 211,096. That is down from 258,749 in 1999, a decrease of 23%.
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My best interpretation of this data is fewer people are flying for fun (BAD), and yet despite the crisis within the aviation industry, more people are learning to fly for a career (BAD).
I guess that load of BS the flight schools are selling new students about this "pilot shortage" really worked. There is no such thing as a pilot shortage. There never will be a pilot shortage at the good aviation jobs. The only "shortage" that may ever exist is of pilots willing to work for abysmal pay (20-30k a year).
I really want to see the 2008 statistics. The average price of oil in 2007 was about $73 a barrel, while the average price in 2008 is about $120 a barrel. Plus the tightening of the credit market might actually help reverse these statistics.
I would really like to see more people getting their pilots license and flying for fun. GA is such an amazing hobby. I feel bad for all those pilot factory produced pilots that have not experienced the true GA experience (flying tons of different aircraft, visiting new airports, new places, going for the $100 hamburger, taking friends up on sight seeing trips, taking the plane somewhere for the weekend, taking people up for their first ride in a small GA airplane, etc...).
My biggest fear is that despite the massive increase in fuel prices, and the horrible slump the aviation industry is facing, more people than ever are wanting to enter the industry for a career. That tells me they have succumb to that pilot factory type marketing and have no idea what they are truly getting into. Then are stuck with massive 50-60k loans, a 20k a year job, and willing to work for next to nothing just for flight time or a meager amount of money to just "get by." I would much rather see a more educated crowd entering the aviation industry, and have more people flying for fun to protect GA.