How do you live...

[Mr_Creepy]

Where have you been? There have been many accidents in airline history attributed to low time/experience. It is one of the reasons that training standards and CRM were pushed so hard. And if not for that the regionals would have been a bloody mess the last few years.

I flew with many old captains who were hired with practically no time/experience. Just like the regionals are doing now.

You've got a long wait coming.

Fatal airline accidents where passengers were killed and airlines fiscally damaged?

Can you name a few?

I can't think of any.

 

[Mr_Creepy]

Well, could be. But an awful lot of civilian pilots were getting hired. And qualifications had nothing, zip, nada to do with the pay and benefits that came from the decades when ALPA pilots and only ALPA pilots were in the cockpits and competition was forbidden.

It's definitely revisionist history to say that the airline cocopits being 100% unionized had nothing to do with the huge disparity in pay between those cockpits and all others in the industry.

I know ALPA has done some wonderful things, and they have done some horrible things as well.

I am not now and have never been a fan of the ALPA national leadership. The ALPA that helps an airline pilot is the local MEC and the LECs below it.

Remember that one of the highest paid pilot groups in history broke away from ALPA to get there (AA pilots with APA.)

Also, pilots were pretty well paid before ALPA was around, too.

You cannot believe "Flying the Line" word for word. The guy who wrote it is an anti-establishment, liberal college professor. He did a pretty good job of holding his opinions but still, there is definitely a slant to those books.

 

[flyover]

I know ALPA has done some wonderful things, and they have done some horrible things as well.

I am not now and have never been a fan of the ALPA national leadership. The ALPA that helps an airline pilot is the local MEC and the LECs below it.

Remember that one of the highest paid pilot groups in history broke away from ALPA to get there (AA pilots with APA.)

Also, pilots were pretty well paid before ALPA was around, too.

You cannot believe "Flying the Line" word for word. The guy who wrote it is an anti-establishment, liberal college professor. He did a pretty good job of holding his opinions but still, there is definitely a slant to those books.

Well, I sure didn't get my opinion from Flying the Line. And I'm not criticising ALPAs tremendous success at organizing pilots and achieveing high pay and benefits. Also I'm a big fan of their safety work. But the facts are undeniable in this case.

APA was a result of a leadership feud in ALPA and they owe any success they've had to the fact that ALPA continued to maintain their position at other carriers. APA wilted when facing Crandall and started the B-scale that ALPA had to work so hard to overcome.

Off hand I can think of a Continental accident that was attributed to two inevperienced pilots in the cockpit (captain inexperienced in type) that lead to the current guidelines about pairing pilots. But sure, there have been plenty of accidents in all phases of the industry caused by low-time or inexperience. Do you honestly think weve been waiting over 70 years to finally have an accident due to low-time/inexperience? This is a phenomonon so well known in the industry, I would say it's ingrained. Another example was American at LIT where there was speculation that the FO's newbie status kept him from pressing the Captain to abandon the approach. I just got done reviewing an accident from the 70s that was attributed, in part, to the crew's lack of experience with their flight director system. And contrary to your opinion, thousands of low-time/inexperienced pilots have been hired by the airlines over many decades. Most had long, safe careers.

Again, I am not saying it was a bad thing that ALPA achieved high compensation standards. But it should not be a mystery to anyone why those standards are disappearing. They were set in the context of unique forces working on supply and demand that will likely never happen agaiin.

 

[Mr_Creepy]

The LIT FO had over 4000 hrs total time, no? He was a new hire but not an inexperienced pilot. The NTSB attributed that one to the fact that the captain was a mgt pilot who was not flying regularly.

ALPA safety, I'm with you there, but there again I credit the local MECs and LECs for that. I worked on them.

You can't blame APA for the B-scale! They came up with the name, but other airlines had low pay for new hire FOs. Eastern started that I'm pretty sure, and it carried in to Continental and United.

Back to inexperience - I'm not talking about experience in type, I'm talking about hours. You and I know that a 250 hr pilot is not as safe as a 5000 hr pilot, but we there is so little data out there to prove it, since flying is so incredibly safe anyway, that almost accidents are freaks of nature. Either that or a very unlikely concatenation of sequential events.

1 fatal airline accident in every 10 million flights is a pretty good safety record.

 

[flyover]

You can't blame APA for the B-scale! They came up with the name, but other airlines had low pay for new hire FOs. Eastern started that I'm pretty sure, and it carried in to Continental and United.

Nope. APA gets the award for the B-scale. New hire pay and FO vs. Capt. pay had always changed from contract to contract. APA and American introduced the concept of a career long B-scale. They did it and nobody else. It was their baby, 100%.

It cost ALPA pilots a huge amount of negotiating capital to fight it, but no ALPA carrier ever capitulated and because of that the APA developed the backbone to remove theirs. They had expected the ALPA carriers to follow their lead, but instead they ended up all by themselves.

Back to inexperience - I'm not talking about experience in type, I'm talking about hours. You and I know that a 250 hr pilot is not as safe as a 5000 hr pilot, but we there is so little data out there to prove it, since flying is so incredibly safe anyway, that almost accidents are freaks of nature. Either that or a very unlikely concatenation of sequential events.

Well I would say that pretty much puts your original statement to rest. Low time/inexperience is not a player. The major airlines have always been ready to hire very low time pilots and in fact have hired thousands of them (and then paid them very well). The last couple of decades with the regional airlines have proven the concept. It is just not an issue. The industry just gets safer and safer.

 

[JaceTheAce]

I'm confused - what's not so nutricious about it? Not too much of anything! Add some fruit and veggies, a glass of milk and you're ready to go!!

It's the sodium that's bad! Very high in Sodium.

 

[Mr_Creepy]

No it doesn't!

Just because the accident hasn't been identified yet doesn't mean it hasn't happened.

Or, just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it isnt going to.

I predict that there will be a major airline accident in the next few years directly as a result of a low time pilot.

And again, on B scale - we are arguing semantics. You are being anti-semantic with me LOL There were certainly low pay for FOs at each airline for their first five years before AA put in a B scale.

 

[mtsu_av8er]

The sodium alone will kill you!

Well, if you eat 6 servings per day, even then you're only getting 20% more than the D.R.A. of sodium! Even you had a serving of Ramen, a grilled-cheese sandwhich and some fruit for lunch and dinner, you're gravy! In the morning, ahve a couple of bowls of the cereal of your choice, some yogurt, a piece of fruit and some toast, and you're in a perfect spot!

Geez, you guys need to learn how to make it work!!!

 

[Chris_Ford]

Well, if you eat 6 servings per day, even then you're only getting 20% more than the D.R.A. of sodium! Even you had a serving of Ramen, a grilled-cheese sandwhich and some fruit for lunch and dinner, you're gravy! In the morning, ahve a couple of bowls of the cereal of your choice, some yogurt, a piece of fruit and some toast, and you're in a perfect spot!

Geez, you guys need to learn how to make it work!!!

Uhhh, I don't care what that graphic said, look at your package of Ramen. 1 serving (half a "block" or whatever) is 33% of your daily sodium... That means if you eat the whole thing, you're eating 2/3rds of your daily sodium. Multiply that by 6 and you're eating 4 times more than what's "healthy"

 

[flyover]

Just because the accident hasn't been identified yet doesn't mean it hasn't happened.

Yeah, I'm still betting it has been identified. For example, there was a series of accidents when the jets were introduced. All attributed to low-time, lack of experience in those airplanes. I know what you are saying and how it differs from my examples. But, this not an unknown issue in the industry and has been compensated for. I just don't see it being any kind of an issue. It certainly isn't for most foreign carriers, including European ones, and we know they are the finest operations on the planet. (Ok, thinking of using the sarcasm tag here. No, going to keep my record clean.)

And again, on B scale - we are arguing semantics. You are being anti-semantic with me LOL There were certainly low pay for FOs at each airline for their first five years before AA put in a B scale.

You seem to be misinformed here. Payscales for FOs and newhires as a percentage of captain pay were things that changed throughout the history of union airline contracts. Thus, to change those scales was nothing new.

APA and American negotiated their infamous B-scale contract at a time that People's Express was riding high. The American pilots agreed to a true B-scale. The pay for incoming pilots would never merge with those of the pilots currently on the property. It was supposed to be an acknowlegment that non-union airlines were the wave of the future and American could only grow and compete by matching the new pay scales.

ALPA was then forced to make concessions in response to the stunning victory Crandall had achieved. But they never capitulated to a real B-scale and instead made adjustments to pay in the early years. Again, this was nothing new. In fact, ALPA had made tremendous gains in those areas in preceding contracts. So this was just giving a little of that back.

It is an exercise in semantics to call what ALPA carriers negotiated a B-scale. What APA agreed to is the very definition of a B-scale. It was an abandonment of newhire pilots by the current pilots to save themselves and it directly lead to the junior pilots overthrowing the senior leadership in APA and becoming a force to be reckoned with instead of a weak sister union.

 

[mtsu_av8er]

Uhhh, I don't care what that graphic said, look at your package of Ramen. 1 serving (half a "block" or whatever) is 33% of your daily sodium... That means if you eat the whole thing, you're eating 2/3rds of your daily sodium. Multiply that by 6 and you're eating 4 times more than what's "healthy"

Just don't use the entire package of "Seasonings"!! That's easy! Does anyone really use that entire package AND drink the soup-like fluid when they're done with the package? That would be nasty anyway!

 

[Chris_Ford]

Just don't use the entire package of "Seasonings"!! That's easy! Does anyone really use that entire package AND drink the soup-like fluid when they're done with the package? That would be nasty anyway!

I actually strain the water out after I've boiled the noodles and put the seasoning (not all of it though, because of that high sodium) over the noodles... mmmmmm!

 

[pilot602]

FWIW, as of 2002, the FAA estimated that there were 144,708 active ATP certificate holders, 125,920 active commercial certificate holders, and 63,681 active flight engineer certificate holders. In the same year there were estimated to be 79,000 airline pilots, co-pilots, and flight engineers employed in the US. What's the ratio of available people (pilots and flight engineers) to available jobs? Somewhere between 3:1 and 4:1.

Ah, numbers, how many ATPs also hold commercial certificates? How many of those numbers are inactive or retired pilots? How many total (not just airline jobs) are there available in the U.S.

Case in point; my father retired and all but stopped flying nearly 20 years ago but still hodls a medical certificate. Guess what he's in that list. How many more out there are like him?

So why not validate the actual numbers you're working with. It wouldn't take a whole lot to whittle down that 3/4:1 ratio.

However, reading this thread, obviously there is no over supply pilots who could pass a macro-economics course.

Ah but we can use skewed numbers in economics and come out OK?

As a side note; riddle me this, explain how every year law schools in the U.S. graduate upwards of 12 students per law position in the U.S. and explain how their pay as an industry average hasn't decreased. Last I knew a 12:1 ration is a lot worse than a 4:1 ratio.

There's more to supply and demand than plain, old simple supply and demand. To think it works alone, without any extreaneous forces is naive and quite frankly idiotic.

 

[pilot602]

The gold standard pay that Pilot602 and others are talking about is the anomaly. It was the result of the supply of airline pilots being tightly controlled by ALPA/APA. At the same time the union carriers were shielded from any exposure to competition from non-union operators. In those days "getting the call" to work for an ALPA carrier was like getting called from the minors to the major leagues. There was a complete disconnect between what pilots made at the ALPA carriers and what the rest of aviation paid. And it wasn't a qualification issue, it was strictly a supply vs. demand issue. ALPA did a great job of insuring that only ALPA pilots were available for majors to use. Hence they controlled the supply. And the majors were mostly comfortable with that as long as it didn't get too crazy. After all, they had no competition either.

Now there are no such protective barriers and pilot pay is finding it's market value.

Not really. Do majors pay more than regionals for first year pilots? Yes.

They are still a goal which attracts people to flying (although like i've said this is rapidly diminishing) but the fact they've stopped hiring for nearly half a decade has forced people to stay at a place that was once a two or three year stop on the ladder.

 

[scoobs]

Why is it my fault we have low pay. All I was saying is you can make it work.

 

[VicariousLiving]

Ah, numbers, how many ATPs also hold commercial certificates? ...So why not validate the actual numbers you're working with. It wouldn't take a whole lot to whittle down that 3/4:1 ratio.

I suggest you do some research (IOW, read 14CFR61) and come back when you know WTF you are talking about. For the record, the number of people holding both an ATP and a commercial certificate is zero, zilch, zip, nada.

Ah but we can use skewed numbers in economics and come out OK?

No, but one can be clueless and sound okay for a second or two--take yourself as a perfect example.

 

[GaTechKid]

I suggest you do some research (IOW, read 14CFR61) and come back when you know WTF you are talking about. For the record, the number of people holding both an ATP and a commercial certificate is zero, zilch, zip, nada.

Don't most airline captains hold Airline Transport Multi-Engine ratings but Commercial Single-Engine Privileges Would that be counted in the commercial count? How about those ATP airplane certificate holders that also have, say, commercial rotor or commercial glider certificates?

 

[NJA_Capt]

Ah, numbers, how many ATPs also hold commercial certificates?

0. Good try but no dice. It reads ATP License... yada yada "commercial privileges" it does not say commercial license. I know a guy that holds an ATP Single and Multi engine Land and Sea, do you think they counted him 4 times? (rhetorical).

...my father retired ... Guess what he's in that list.

Actually he is not counted in the list because the numbers are for active ATP certificates. (ie....recent 135/121 checkride)

riddle me this, explain how every year law schools in the U.S. graduate upwards of 12 students per law position in the U.S. and explain how their pay as an industry average hasn't decreased. Last I knew a 12:1 ration is a lot worse than a 4:1 ratio.

Because any law school grad can set his own "firm" the day after graduation. Not many MAPD/CAPT/ATP/FSI grads are setting up their own airline. ATPs website says that 120 of their grads got hired in the last 12 months. How many grads did they have total, a few thousand? Makes you wonder where the other few thousand pilots went eh?

There's more to supply and demand than plain, old simple supply and demand.

YYYYYea. Good luck with that.

 

[mtsu_av8er]

I suggest you do some research (IOW, read 14CFR61) and come back when you know WTF you are talking about.

Yeah, something tells me that 602 hasn't read those . . .

 

[jtrain609]

It's because he hates America...and because he's a ninja