How do you live...

[JaceTheAce]

Well, Top Ramen is not a good way to live off of. It's not a very nutritious food item.

Living off rice and beans is pretty healthy (carbohydrates from the rice, protein from the beans). Fruits and vegetables are pretty cheap. My food expenses are about $150 a month because I cook at home.

 

[NJA_Capt]

There is no over supply of pilots. There never has been ...

Gotta disagree p602. There most certainly is an over supply. There always has been even back to the Wright Bros (Two pilots one airplane).

If...there are so many pilots running around explain the ever decreasing hiring minimums?

Minimums are lowered because higher timed (smarter) pilots stopped applying for such low wages.

These airlines aren't scraping the bottom of the barrel for the hell of it ... it's because they can't find people to fly their aircraft and aren't willing to pay fair wages to get/keep people.

Exactly....there are plenty of experienced pilots, they just aren't willing to pay for the experienced pilots. The experienced pilots have either found higher paying corporate positions or taken higher paying positions outside of the aviation field. I can tell you point blank that if I lost my job tomorrow I would find a non-flying position to replace it. I would in no way consider flying for a regional.

 

[mtsu_av8er]

Well, Top Ramen is not a good way to live off of. It's not a very nutritious food item.

I'm confused - what's not so nutricious about it? Not too much of anything! Add some fruit and veggies, a glass of milk and you're ready to go!!

 

[pilot602]

Gotta disagree p602. There most certainly is an over supply. There always has been even back to the Wright Bros (Two pilots one airplane).


Minimums are lowered because higher timed (smarter) pilots stopped applying for such low wages.


Exactly....there are plenty of experienced pilots, they just aren't willing to pay for the experienced pilots. The experienced pilots have either found higher paying corporate positions or taken higher paying positions outside of the aviation field. I can tell you point blank that if I lost my job tomorrow I would find a non-flying position to replace it. I would in no way consider flying for a regional.

Just one thing ... when was the last time you were around the instructing world? Not slamming you just asking.

The reason I'm asking is; my prior place of employment did two commercial certificates last year, and both were for older gentlemen who just wanted a commercial. PanAm and Westwind in PHX have both long (almost a year now) gone to almost exclusively Chinese contracts just to stay afloat. I have friends who are instructors at large schools and the instructors are on a waiting list for students! Combine this with the baby boomer bubble all starting to hit age 60 (and this problem of finding qualified employees is rearing its ugly head in other fields as well) and the fact that everyday people hear that this airline is close to folding and this pilot group is taking pay cuts etc. and the appeal that used to draw the big numbers (pre- 9/11) to flight training with the hopes of flying for a living are completely gone.

This leads up to (unless something bizarre happens in the next few years) a bonafide pilot shortage. Hence the reason we're seeing lower and lower minimums. We're only scratching the surface.

 

[wheelsup]

Minimums are lowered because higher timed (smarter) pilots stopped applying for such low wages.
-----------
Exactly....there are plenty of experienced pilots, they just aren't willing to pay for the experienced pilots.

I disagree. Look at hiring trends pre-9/11 and you will see that many commuters of the day (BixEx, Eagle, ASA, etc.) were hiring MUCH more experienced people then they are now with MUCH lower pay. Hell, even AWAC mins were 2500TT, 1000 multi and 500 turbine back in the 90's. And they were pretty hard (not flexible) mins.

I'm thinking what changed was the "golden carrot". There's no reason to go to a low paying regional these days because it won't get you to a major, because most majors aren't hiring. If the 6-12 month upgrade was prevalent, and Delta, United, and NWA were hiring people to the tune of 1000+/yr and expanding at a rapid pace, I bet you'd see a return of the higher mins and "traditional" career path. You'd also see better pilot contracts at the majors, scope clauses, less out sourcing, etc.

Just IMO...

IMO the pay at Great Lakes is horrible and employee morale sucks at Mesa. If you're not comfortable with the pay don't choose that company. I guess you can say that first year pay at Air Wisconsin with 23,000 is better than 16,000 at Great Lakes.

Great Lakes and Mesa are too commuters/regionals that have stood by the traditional route, however with slightly increased upgrade time. I was talking to a former ASA CA who upgraded in 6 months on the J41. That would be unheard of these days. But 12-24 months is a relatively low upgrade these days, and pilots that go to these places go to a regional to MOVE ON TO A BETTER JOB rather than simply hanging around. Two different mentalities. Also, comparing 19 pax, turboprop pay to 50 pax, turbojet pay isn't really apples and apples, is it?

~wheelsup

P.S. Wait till Feb. 16th when our old contract goes to arbritration (sp?). Second year CRJ-200 (50 pax) pay should go back to $39/hr :nana2: (if it doesn't I, and 795 other pilots will be seriously Pissed!!)

~wheelsup

 

[NJA_Capt]

This leads up to ...a bonafide pilot shortage. Hence the reason we're seeing lower and lower minimums.

Think of supply and demand. The supply currently exceeds demand thus the low wages. If demand exceed supply the wages would go up. They don't need to raise the pay because plenty of starry eyed SJS pilots are applying. Look at all the FlyI guys the street now. Do you see them beating down the door at other regionals now? Over 100 have now been hired at NJA. Trust me. There are plenty of experienced pilots out of work (Midway, TWA, DAL, Fly I etc...), they just aren't motivated to apply for these jobs.

As far as the instructing thing....
I am about to renew my CFI (16+ years) again and am still current in GA singles. Ask TaterS, he sees me every few months.

wheelsup,
Keep in mind that $23K bought a lot more in 1990 than it does today. I am still holding on to some FAPA (Air Inc) propaganda from 1989 that lists who was hiring and what the mins were. A lot of the same lines are still being used today, it's pretty sad. They have been crying pilot shortage since I was in HS. And it hasn't happened yet.

 

[pilot602]

Think of supply and demand. The supply currently exceeds demand thus the low wages. If demand exceed supply the wages would go up. They don't need to raise the pay because plenty of starry eyed SJS pilots are applying. Look at all the FlyI guys the street now. Do you see them beating down the door at other regionals now? Over 100 have now been hired at NJA. Trust me. There are plenty of experienced pilots out of work (Midway, TWA, DAL, Fly I etc...), they just aren't motivated to apply for these jobs.

I disagree.

I think for the short term, yes there may be enough people to apply but those numbers are growing thinner and thus the dip in minimums.

No need to pay higher when they can "expand" the number of possible recruits by lowering the cutoff point. But there is a fixed, hard bottom to that scenario and it's 250 hours. And guess what, we're almost there.

Mesa, again arguably the largest "regional," is putting people in at 250 hours. SkyWest and Air Wisconsin are hiring CFIs (when previously they wouldn't touch anyone without 135 or 121 experience).

As far as "plenty of experienced" pilots from other airlines, AirWis offered the Indy boys jobs as well as the Mesaba guys. Besides, if a pilot isn't applying he isn't part of the available workforce. You said it yourself if something happened with your job you'd go outside aviation ... how many of these experienced pilots you're speaking about have done exactly that?

Just because a pilot certificate never expires it doesn't mean the will to use it never expires either.

 

[pilot602]

They have been crying pilot shortage since I was in HS. And it hasn't happened yet.

I'm not talking about BS propaganda. I'm talking about numbers and cold hard facts I saw, and see, from the bottom of the industry (injstructing ... it's where almost everyone starts out) and that is NO ONE is going into this as a career anymore. No one.

Eventually that has to catch up somewhere.

Hell take a look in the jobs available forum. How many CFI positions are being advertisied? It's quite a jump in one year.

 

[NJA_Capt]

Besides, if a pilot isn't applying he isn't part of the available workforce... how many of these experienced pilots you're speaking about have done exactly that?

A better question to ask yourself is: Why is everyone taking themselves out of the workforce? They didn't just suddenly decide they didn't like to fly anymore. They are leaving because it is no longer a viable career option. If the MONEY and WORK RULES were right, all these guys would not be taking themselves off the market. But hey, why should JO pay a pilot 150K to fly an CRJ900 when he can get some kid to do it for 20K? Sooner or later he will run out of kids and have to ante up.

I believe there will be a pilot shortage in the future because for the first time in last 106 years, senior Captains are no longer recommending the life of an airline pilot to little kids.

 

[NJA_Capt]

...take a look in the jobs available forum. How many CFI positions are being advertised? It's quite a jump in one year.

This is in direct relation to the number of "new" pilots that want a quicker way to the airlines and feel that instructing is beneath them. The irony is that without the CFIs there won't be anyone to teach at the puppy factories.....I mean pilot factories.

Riddle me this:
If there is a pilot shortage as you claim. Why are private companies not having any trouble hiring high timed pilots? NJA, Flexjet, Flight Opts and CitationShares all have mins at 2500tt. In the corporate want ads the mins for many jobs are 5000-6000tt with a few type ratings. And curiously enough, the starting pay is higher.

 

[TheFlyingTurkey]

I'm confused - what's not so nutricious about it? Not too much of anything! Add some fruit and veggies, a glass of milk and you're ready to go!!

The sodium alone will kill you!

 

[pilot602]

Riddle me this:
If there is a pilot shortage as you claim. Why are private companies not having any trouble hiring high timed pilots?

Didn't say there was a pilot shortage right now ... said there was going to be one.

unless something bizarre happens in the next few years

This is in direct relation to the number of "new" pilots that want a quicker way to the airlines and feel that instructing is beneath them.

Nah it's because there is no one (in signifgant numbers) coming up through the ranks. The big pilot factories aren't filled with U.S. pilots they're being kept afloat by going overseas and training Chinese, Korean, etc. pilots who then go back home after they are done. Of course you are right that the few U.S. folks still in the system are generally going the factory route but the enrollment is dropping like mad at these places (hence the foreign contracts).

All I'm telling you here is what I'm personally seeing/saw when I was instructing. Maybe I'm way off base but I don't think so.

NJA, Flexjet, Flight Opts and CitationShares all have mins at 2500tt. In the corporate want ads the mins for many jobs are 5000-6000tt with a few type ratings. And curiously enough, the starting pay is higher

I'd wager a fair percentage of those pilots are coming from the regionals. Fed up with crap wages and even worse work rules. The shortage is going to come from the bottom up. The drop off in training I talked about has really only begun to be noticed it will take a few years (and by then maybe the majors will be hiring and this will all be a moot point again) for the pinch to be truly felt. But I still say that the number of available (or willing) pilots needed by the regionals is dwindling and thus the dip in their minimums. Once they can't go any lower (250hrs and a wet comm.) they'll have to start paying better ... or by then the cabbotage laws will have finally been passed and then we're all permanantly screwed.

As far as the pay being higher, well these companies value their pilots and the services they provide and are looking for experience and therefore pay well in order to get what they're looking for. Don't think for a second, though, if they could pay less they would. But, for every decent corporate gig out there I can show you two that have far worse work rules and pay than even the regionals.

 

[SteveC]

Didn't say there was a pilot shortage right now ... said there was going to be one.

I thought you said there was not, nor ever had been, an over-supply?

 

[pilot602]

I thought you said there was not, nor ever had been, an over-supply?

There is a difference between oversupply and shortage.

A big difference.

 

[Mr_Creepy]

Maybe you should just say you mis-spoke.

There has always been an over supply of pilots. By definition, a qualified pilot is anyone with a commercial multi ticket (by FAA standards, not insurance companies!)

Mesa, Comair, COEx (aka JetExpress), Great Lakes, Commutair and many others have been putting low time pilots in the right seat of airliners for over 20 years now. That's nothing new.

Airlines have always had that option. If the supply goes up they can raise mins but they are not required to.

In the late 80s Eastern was hiring 250 hr pilots. They were scabs but still, it's never been about the experience. Most airlines are convinced (incorrectly) that they are safer and better off taking a 250 hr pilot and teaching them their way rather than hiring an experienced pilot.

When I worked contract at FSI in Atlanta almost all the FSI instructors believed that, and they would say that to airline execs when they came by for dog and pony shows. I wanted to scream!

But the fact is, until we can prove that a low time pilot is the reason for a fatal accident we have nothing. It will happen. We know it's true. All we can do is wait.

 

[VicariousLiving]

Bullsh*t. There is no over supply of pilots. There never has been and there sure as hell isn't going to be over the next decade.

Just yesterday I was at McDonald's, waiting in a huge line for a freekin' burger. There were no employees left in the place. None. Seems just hours before, United Airlines' pilot recruiting team came through looking for warm bodies, any warm bodies, to fill empty slots in the next ab initio pilot class...

In your dreams there might not be an over supply of pilots, but in the real world there is a veritable pilot glut.

FWIW, as of 2002, the FAA estimated that there were 144,708 active ATP certificate holders, 125,920 active commercial certificate holders, and 63,681 active flight engineer certificate holders. In the same year there were estimated to be 79,000 airline pilots, co-pilots, and flight engineers employed in the US. What's the ratio of available people (pilots and flight engineers) to available jobs? Somewhere between 3:1 and 4:1.

There is no over supply of pilots? Riiiight. Why are pilot salaries so low? Because there are 3-4 potential employees for every job.

However, reading this thread, obviously there is no over supply pilots who could pass a macro-economics course.

 

[flyover]

So what caused this in the industry? Just too many pilots now and not enough jobs? Too many PFT programs? Why did the pay go down so much?

The gold standard pay that Pilot602 and others are talking about is the anomaly. It was the result of the supply of airline pilots being tightly controlled by ALPA/APA. At the same time the union carriers were shielded from any exposure to competition from non-union operators. In those days "getting the call" to work for an ALPA carrier was like getting called from the minors to the major leagues. There was a complete disconnect between what pilots made at the ALPA carriers and what the rest of aviation paid. And it wasn't a qualification issue, it was strictly a supply vs. demand issue. ALPA did a great job of insuring that only ALPA pilots were available for majors to use. Hence they controlled the supply. And the majors were mostly comfortable with that as long as it didn't get too crazy. After all, they had no competition either.

Now there are no such protective barriers and pilot pay is finding it's market value.

 

[Mr_Creepy]

ALPA? I think not.

What you are referring to is gov't regulation. In those days prior to de-regulation there was a great feeling in this country that only military pilots (specifically bomber pilots from WWII) could fly people safely.

There weren't a whole lot of options other than the military route in those days. There weren't any big flight schools to build time at, by being a low paid CFI.

Wait, I think I just identified the problem!!!!

 

[flyover]

But the fact is, until we can prove that a low time pilot is the reason for a fatal accident we have nothing. It will happen. We know it's true. All we can do is wait.

Where have you been? There have been many accidents in airline history attributed to low time/experience. It is one of the reasons that training standards and CRM were pushed so hard. And if not for that the regionals would have been a bloody mess the last few years.

I flew with many old captains who were hired with practically no time/experience. Just like the regionals are doing now.

You've got a long wait coming.

 

[flyover]

ALPA? I think not.

What you are referring to is gov't regulation. In those days prior to de-regulation there was a great feeling in this country that only military pilots (specifically bomber pilots from WWII) could fly people safely.

Well, could be. But an awful lot of civilian pilots were getting hired. And qualifications had nothing, zip, nada to do with the pay and benefits that came from the decades when ALPA pilots and only ALPA pilots were in the cockpits and competition was forbidden.

It's definitely revisionist history to say that the airline cocopits being 100% unionized had nothing to do with the huge disparity in pay between those cockpits and all others in the industry.