Housing prices

[///AMG]

Hard for prices to correct if no one with a 3%orwhatever interest rate is selling.

Yeah, I agree, in the nearish term, that's the reality. Or maybe it just perpetually is the case. Will be really interesting to see what happens in the next 5-10 years.

I know for us, it is hard to get the motivation to re-enter the market. We way underbought and at 3% (we never bothered to refinance during the covid refinance craze), have no real reason to need to leave. There are some things we would like in our next house, but are in no hurry at all. Will probably wait until we can afford to keep this place, and buy another bigger place.

 

[form810]

Am I the only one feeling like we are due for a recession, that a quarter million is a crazy figure for the median house price, and that maybe this isn't such a good time to buy a house?

No.

 

[form810]

I would rent the current place and look for another wholesale deal.

Buy, rehab, rent, refinance.

Sure. If you're a Captain at a major and have time for those hijinks 'cause you actually do your paid job only 4 or 5 days a month (which, of course means 8-10 days a month, 'cause every good pilot spends the day before a flight prepping for the flight)... oh, wait!).

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Sure. If you're a Captain at a major and have time for those hijinks 'cause you actually do your paid job only 4 or 5 days a month.

Why so salty?

 

[form810]

Why so salty?

No salt. Just meat... or preferably -for your own health and that of others- vegetables.

 

[derg]

Why so salty?

Technically umami.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

Hard for prices to correct if no one with a 3%orwhatever interest rate is selling.

Yep no inventory. I managed to steal a 3 acre property in 2019 for 595K and refi for 2.875. No way am I going to move out. I'm going to spend a ton of money on a remodel at some point. Likely when my latest flip is finished. If I can get the boundary line adjustment and septic issues solved.

Hopefully will be out of the weeds on my flip. I'm concerned about a huge correction before we can sell. However the inventory situation remains a constant issue out here in the greater Seattle area. Not much is available. So I think we can make a bit of money on the flip. We are also going to try and subdivide the property with a boundary line adjustment. There is already another small home. If we can get a septic system approved we basically get a house for free which will be all profit if we can make it work.

 

[Richman]

Yep no inventory. I managed to steal a 3 acre property in 2019 for 595K and refi for 2.875. No way am I going to move out. I'm going to spend a ton of money on a remodel at some point. Likely when my latest flip is finished. If I can get the boundary line adjustment and septic issues solved.

Hopefully will be out of the weeds on my flip. I'm concerned about a huge correction before we can sell. However the inventory situation remains a constant issue out here in the greater Seattle area. Not much is available. So I think we can make a bit of money on the flip. We are also going to try and subdivide the property with a boundary line adjustment. There is already another small home. If we can get a septic system approved we basically get a house for free which will be all profit if we can make it work.

We bought a few acres out in the woods WAY down on a back road in what was supposed to be a "not trendy, ever" state. Not 6 weeks later, all the other lots sold and now houses are popping up all over. Turns out Florida got too expensive, finally, and so people have "discovered" other places they can shower with money. I read an article in the WSJ about it, and my heart sank because I knew what was going to happen. I'm really disappointed by this, but this is the second time this has happened. The first time, I was promised that the neighborhood was surrounded by "critical aquifer & habitat protected by law", and after some checking, actually proved to be correct. So that worked...for about 8 months, when the county, swayed no doubt by the argument that the developer was concerned as well, approved all kinds of new construction...down a road that had zero excess capacity, and no way to improve it.

I will say, getting away from the madness that is Florida is an eye opener. I am extremely lazy (even the cats poke me saying "dood, you sleep too much"), so I'd rather get contractors to do what needs to be done. It's so bad in FL now I'd actually have to get off the couch and learn to do stuff myself, unless there some kind of mortal peril involved (you can shut off electricity...they haven't figured out how to shut off gravity yet.)

At our new place, you call, people show, they do the work, charge what they said, and leave the place clean, usually all by 10am. It's quite remarkable.

 

[Cessnaflyer]

Sure. If you're a Captain at a major and have time for those hijinks 'cause you actually do your paid job only 4 or 5 days a month (which, of course means 8-10 days a month, 'cause every good pilot spends the day before a flight prepping for the flight)... oh, wait!).

Lol, you quoted my post from 2019. 4 years and a pandemic later I would love to see the increase in value from the purchase price and the increase in rental income. I am so happy I never sold my houses!

 

[form810]

Yep no inventory. I managed to steal a 3 acre property in 2019 for 595K and refi for 2.875. No way am I going to move out. I'm going to spend a ton of money on a remodel at some point. Likely when my latest flip is finished. If I can get the boundary line adjustment and septic issues solved.

Hopefully will be out of the weeds on my flip. I'm concerned about a huge correction before we can sell. However the inventory situation remains a constant issue out here in the greater Seattle area. Not much is available. So I think we can make a bit of money on the flip. We are also going to try and subdivide the property with a boundary line adjustment. There is already another small home. If we can get a septic system approved we basically get a house for free which will be all profit if we can make it work.

Oh! Yeah!!! Flip! But Flip NOW! Flipping NOW is ALWAYS better than flipping later! Haven't you been studying the professors' notes on the cable channels??

It's ALL flippin' these days. Why the hell would ANYONE want to commit to a community and come to know one's neighbors? And maybe spend one's money on growing some food instead of on resurrecting a "house" -that was never intended to stand upright for more than 15-25 years- in rapt anticipation of the BIG MONEY payoff??

You gotta watch more TV, brah!

 

[form810]

Lol, you quoted my post from 2019. 4 years and a pandemic later I would love to see the increase in value from the purchase price and the increase in rental income. I am so happy I never sold my houses!

Sure, me too. Never walk away from equity, broheem. Still, current equity is a VERY different concept than current purchase. IDK, I'm just trying to hold on for whatever ride we've recently been indentured - by a mutible-contract clause - into buckling into.

Also, let's none of us talk about the travails of the young'uns coming up just trying to afford a place to live. After all - in the unassailable words of Ronald Reagan, who started all this stuff - EFF them, we've got ours!!!! And also, just a reminder in case you got the Big Head, we (you and I and lots of others), were NOT geniuses. We just accidentally benefited from the outrageous practices of big money funds. The time for praising ourselves will soon be at an end... Highness.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Oh! Yeah!!! Flip! But Flip NOW! Flipping NOW is ALWAYS better than flipping later! Haven't you been studying the professors' notes on the cable channels??

It's ALL flippin' these days. Why the hell would ANYONE want to commit to a community and come to know one's neighbors? And maybe spend one's money on growing some food instead of on resurrecting a "house" -that was never intended to stand upright for more than 15-25 years- in rapt anticipation of the BIG MONEY payoff??

You gotta watch more TV, brah!

The first home I lost, it closed and then literally a few days later, listed for rent.

That investor can pound sand. 1.298m list and investor bought it for 1.545m

Listed it for $6,200 rent.

How do you even break even?!

Prop tax is 1500. That’s 4700/month for insurance, P&I. On over 1.5 million? Wow

 

[form810]

The first home I lost, it closed and then literally a few days later, listed for rent.

That investor can pound sand. 1.298m list and investor bought it for 1.545m

Listed it for $6,200 rent.

How do you even break even?!

Prop tax is 1500. That’s 4700/month for insurance, P&I. On over 1.5 million? Wow

Good for you...

We all need to do whatever we can to, you know, make 'Murica Great Again, for all of us.

 

[Richman]

The first home I lost, it closed and then literally a few days later, listed for rent.

That investor can pound sand. 1.298m list and investor bought it for 1.545m

Listed it for $6,200 rent.

How do you even break even?!

Prop tax is 1500. That’s 4700/month for insurance, P&I. On over 1.5 million? Wow

They probably have 15-20 other properties. They probably also have commercial loans, not mortgages. The cash flow is servicing the properties, they're building equity and/or seeing gains from property appreciation, and the best part is they're probably losing money on paper, but get it on the back end with huge tax write-offs with depreciation. Philosophically, I'm not sure how you can see the property value go up, but then still claim depreciation (yes, I know, two different "things"), but that's how the tax game works. I'd bet you cash money each property is in it's own little LLC, and they have at least 2 or 3 more shells on top of that.

A lot of them (most?) aren't Joe/Jane landlord trying to keep the property nice. It's just a machine to them. I see them chortle about it over on Bigger Pockets.

 

[Cessnaflyer]

The first home I lost, it closed and then literally a few days later, listed for rent.

That investor can pound sand. 1.298m list and investor bought it for 1.545m

Listed it for $6,200 rent.

How do you even break even?!

Prop tax is 1500. That’s 4700/month for insurance, P&I. On over 1.5 million? Wow

1031 exchange

 

[///AMG]

Got our monthly "home value" report from the mortgage company today. Obviously that is in of itself a very dubious WAG to begin with, but imagine it captures trends at least. And I'll say the trend has been sharply downward here. Down probably 10% or so from the peak 1-1.5 years ago. Still up 25%+ from 2020 when we bought, but coming back down to reality IMO. Which makes me happy honestly. I don't have much stake in it at the moment, but when I see an ad for some 3 BR/2 BA fixer upper on a tiny lot, with no special location/view/whatever, advertised for $800k, it irrationally annoys the **** out of me. Kinda like private sellers in the automotive world....."I kNoW wHAt I gOT!!!!"

 

[Lawman]

That's crazy man. Our neighbors bought it for I think $680K or something. Pretty basic 3 BR/2 BA, on a smallish (compared to everyone else around) lot. Sold it to the new people for about $550 I think. Personally, I think either of those prices are bananas, but this also isn't Socal, nor is it waterfront property out here (which is similar to your market.

I don't think real estate is going to burst like it did 15 years ago, but I do think there will be a significant correction at some point, especially around here (and in other markets that got really artificially hot during covid).

I made the mistake of looking up my old house (just south of Olympia) on Zillow when the market went absolutely cash in hand bananas….

I sold the house for 365 (having bought at 302)…. It was over 600k. I loved that house, but a full 8 years later of probably marginal upkeep and maintenance there was nothing about that house that made 600k a real number.

The ridiculously overinflated values were one of the reasons I didn’t chose to go back to JBLM.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Got our monthly "home value" report from the mortgage company today. Obviously that is in of itself a very dubious WAG to begin with, but imagine it captures trends at least. And I'll say the trend has been sharply downward here. Down probably 10% or so from the peak 1-1.5 years ago. Still up 25%+ from 2020 when we bought, but coming back down to reality IMO. Which makes me happy honestly. I don't have much stake in it at the moment, but when I see an ad for some 3 BR/2 BA fixer upper on a tiny lot, with no special location/view/whatever, advertised for $800k, it irrationally annoys the **** out of me. Kinda like private sellers in the automotive world....."I kNoW wHAt I gOT!!!!"

Mortgage company sends out home value reports, how often for you? Requested or automatic?

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Another one in Torrance.


Sold $800k in 2014

More than doubled in price in 7 yrs, 2021 sold for 1,650,000


Now 2 yrs later, for sale at a 20% increase, listed for 1,980,000


And I bet you money this will sell for over $2m. *guaranteed*



So from 2014 to 2023 in 9 yrs that's a staggering 247.5%

 

[///AMG]

Another one in Torrance.


Sold $800k in 2014

More than doubled in price in 7 yrs, 2021 sold for 1,650,000


Now 2 yrs later, for sale at a 20% increase, listed for 1,980,000


And I bet you money this will sell for over $2m. *guaranteed*



So from 2014 to 2023 in 9 yrs that's a staggering 247.5%





View attachment 74318

What is the house?

Nah, the "home report" is automatic, never requested it