Guess what....pilot shortage is looming

[killbilly]

I had the pleasure of chatting with a Great Lakes crew last week who flew me into HYS one night, and they were deadheading the next afternoon back out. Both were really nice, personable guys. The FO had been furloughed from Xjet in 2007. GL isn't even hiring right now, they said, and neither of them could remember a time when GL WASN'T hiring. I mentioned the "shortage" and they snickered and said, "there might be a shortage of guys looking to work for the current pay scale, but if there's a shortage, no one told them. we still get resumes."

For what it's worth, I know of an EXCELLENT FBO down here, and the owner is looking for a career-type CFI. He doesn't want someone looking to move on, and from what I can tell, he's looking for a sharp pro that will make decent money as a long-term CFI. If any of you fit that bill, drop me a PM.

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

I don't want to piss off the "THERE IS NO PILOT SHORTAGE AND NEVER WILL BE!" folks, but I do believe there will be one, for whatever my .02 cents is worth (About .01 cent I believe). At least, a shortage of qualified pilots, more so now with a 1500 hour requirement.

I also believe the regionals that hired last may well be the first to hire again, if they learned anything from the bottom of the barrel they had to pick from last time.

Everyone says there are alot of people on the street. Isn't there less than 2001-2002? How fast did they go through those people on the street? In 2004, they were hiring 1500 hour pilots. By 2006, 750 Hour pilots. By 2007, well then it just got dumb. Same thing seems to be happening again. Flight schools are slow, crawling if you compare to just a few years ago. There is a great disparity in numbers between the 1200-1500 hour ranks and the 250-1200. If there is enough hiring to burn up the furloughs and higher time CFIs, and demand is still there, there will be some waiting for folks to get to that 1500 hours.

Again, who knows what will really happen. I can think of a number of things that would cause my Nostradomic prophecies to be untrue. There are probably a 100 more that I cannot think of. I'll stay optimisitc though.

There was no shortage of pilots 2 years ago. There was a shortage of pilots willing to fly for peanuts. Instead of raising pay to get qualified pilots, they hired fresh 250 hour pilots.

 

[Trip7]

Funny, ALPA seems to agree....

ALPA: PRODUCING A PROFESSIONAL PILOT ARTICLE

Although many airlines are presently furloughing pilots due to the recession, the long-term industry is struggling with how it will find enough pilots to fill the needs. According to Boeing Training and Flight Services (previously called Alteon) airlines around the world will need to hire some 367,600 pilots, 17,000 per year, between 2005 and 2024 just to support new aircraft deliveries. According to Boeing, no region of the world will need more pilots than North America over the next 20 years. The U.S. and Canada have about 64,000 jetliner pilots today, but will need more than 128,000 by 2025.

Ultimately, working conditions, compensation, and benefits will need to improve significantly in order to draw a sufficient number of new pilots into the profession. New training methods alone will not be able to attract enough people to the profession to fill the projected pilots needs through 2025.

Boeing was right on the mark because 2005 was the beginning of the hiring boom as the 60 year olds started retiring. Age 65 has stalled that completely until a couple years from now.

Some people will continue to argue that there will never be a true pilot shortage. Let them be. Their argument will cease to have a point in a couple of years.

 

[Boris Badenov]

Bahahahahah. What are the Moustaches afraid they're going to run out of kids to throw under the bus? Please. Even in the rosiest case scenario that can be attempted to be believed, aircraft face huge environmental hurdles as the Climate Change mafia gain more power. The system is utterly saturated, largely negating the advantages of shorter routes over cars or public transit. Those same shorter routes will be more efficiently served by emerging high speed rail type technologies. The "Global Economy" (meaning the Great Debt/Fiat Money Scam) is in dire straits and not likely to see the sort of artificial, unsustainable growth we've all become used to in the foreseeable future. And then there's the lurking spector of computer-guided aircraft (that one I don't think we'll see in the lifetime of anyone reading this).

Hey, plunk down Daddy's Monopoly Money, what do I care? Wealth transfer from some overpriviledged kid to some greedy jerk isn't exactly my #1 concern.

 

[DeuceOfAces]

Bahahahahah. What are the Moustaches afraid they're going to run out of kids to throw under the bus? Please. Even in the rosiest case scenario that can be attempted to be believed, aircraft face huge environmental hurdles as the Climate Change mafia gain more power. The system is utterly saturated, largely negating the advantages of shorter routes over cars or public transit. Those same shorter routes will be more efficiently served by emerging high speed rail type technologies. The "Global Economy" (meaning the Great Debt/Fiat Money Scam) is in dire straits and not likely to see the sort of artificial, unsustainable growth we've all become used to in the foreseeable future. And then there's the lurking spector of computer-guided aircraft (that one I don't think we'll see in the lifetime of anyone reading this).

Hey, plunk down Daddy's Monopoly Money, what do I care? Wealth transfer from some overpriviledged kid to some greedy jerk isn't exactly my #1 concern.

:laff:! You know, I'm sure there's gotta be a difference between a shortage of pilots at the low end of the experience scale (fresh CPL's, low time CFI's, guys with no turbine time, etc.) and the high end (furloughed widebody pilots, etc). I think that distinction sometimes gets lost amid all the speculation over a possible impending pilot shortage.

 

[killbilly]

Bahahahahah. What are the Moustaches afraid they're going to run out of kids to throw under the bus? Please. Even in the rosiest case scenario that can be attempted to be believed, aircraft face huge environmental hurdles as the Climate Change mafia gain more power. The system is utterly saturated, largely negating the advantages of shorter routes over cars or public transit. Those same shorter routes will be more efficiently served by emerging high speed rail type technologies. The "Global Economy" (meaning the Great Debt/Fiat Money Scam) is in dire straits and not likely to see the sort of artificial, unsustainable growth we've all become used to in the foreseeable future. And then there's the lurking spector of computer-guided aircraft (that one I don't think we'll see in the lifetime of anyone reading this).

Hey, plunk down Daddy's Monopoly Money, what do I care? Wealth transfer from some overpriviledged kid to some greedy jerk isn't exactly my #1
concern.

You forgot "DOOOOOOOOOOOOMMM!!!!!"

 

[killbilly]

Guys....the FBO I mentioned above is fully staffed now...sorry about that. He just filled the position very recently, and I didn't know.

Apologies to all.

 

[ChasenSFO]

I was saying there was going to be a shortage in a few years, but I'd like to reword that to I think there will be a crap load of jobs in a few years, but the mins will probably be waaay higher than this last little stint.

 

[BTAcola]

I've been on a couple of DCA's conference calls/propaganda broadcasts and it's non stop "pilot shortage, pilot shortage, pilot shortage" Also the guy they mentioned in the article, Mark Libretto with Jet Blue, he is always on those calls saying the same crap… he is prob getting a cut from DCA for each skull of mush he recruits for the "puppy mill". To think I was actually going to attend that place:banghead: …. Thank you JC!

So where did you actually end up going? I see your in HOU. Where you fly out of now.. PM me .

 

[mshunter]

Funny, ALPA seems to agree....

ALPA: PRODUCING A PROFESSIONAL PILOT ARTICLE



Boeing was right on the mark because 2005 was the beginning of the hiring boom as the 60 year olds started retiring. Age 65 has stalled that completely until a couple years from now.

Some people will continue to argue that there will never be a true pilot shortage. Let them be. Their argument will cease to have a point in a couple of years.

Are you kiddig? Seriously, because I don't see a sarcasim tag anywhere. What about all the airframes that are being retired? I think thats where the new airplane orders are comming from. Think of it like an auto manfacutrer desgining in obsolesence. They won't last forever.

 

[mwflyer]

There is not and never will be a pilot shortage. There is a shortage of guys and gals that will subject themselves to what the regionals do to you, especially for the pay you get. They are not one in the same.

so then why were so many high-time guys tripping over themselves to get their resumes into colgan?

 

[Stone Cold]

so then why were so many high-time guys tripping over themselves to get their resumes into colgan?

1. Define high time.

2. Because the job market is the worst most have seen in their lifetimes. There are no jobs, corporate flight departments are shuttering their doors at an alarming rate, freight jobs are not plentiful, and the few airlines that are hiring have a virtual monopoly on the job market.

I answered seriously, since I did not see a sarcasm tag. If you already knew this, then my apologies. During the last "hiring boom," how hard was Colgan or anybody else to get on with as a high time pilot? I think they were pretty desperate, since higher time pilots had their pick of where to go, for the most part.

Now, most of the unemployed pilots would rather keep flying rather than not accept sub par wages. How many employed pilots are leaving their jobs to go to Colgan?

 

[mwflyer]

1. Define high time.

2. Because the job market is the worst most have seen in their lifetimes. There are no jobs, corporate flight departments are shuttering their doors at an alarming rate, freight jobs are not plentiful, and the few airlines that are hiring have a virtual monopoly on the job market.

I answered seriously, since I did not see a sarcasm tag. If you already knew this, then my apologies. During the last "hiring boom," how hard was Colgan or anybody else to get on with as a high time pilot? I think they were pretty desperate, since higher time pilots had their pick of where to go, for the most part.

Now, most of the unemployed pilots would rather keep flying rather than not accept sub par wages. How many employed pilots are leaving their jobs to go to Colgan?

I appreciate the serious reply. I wasn't being sarcastic. I'm calling high time 2000+ hours, well above ATP mins. The JC mantra is that qualified pilots with experience wont work for low wages, but thats not the case if only low wage jobs are available. A true professional that knew their worth would never fly for low wages, they would find another way to put food on the table. Thats why the new ATP requirement will do nothing to raise wages, because there will always be someone willing to fly for peanuts.

 

[Stone Cold]

I appreciate the serious reply. I wasn't being sarcastic. I'm calling high time 2000+ hours, well above ATP mins. The JC mantra is that qualified pilots with experience wont work for low wages, but thats not the case if only low wage jobs are available. A true professional that knew their worth would never fly for low wages, they would find another way to put food on the table. Thats why the new ATP requirement will do nothing to raise wages, because there will always be someone willing to fly for peanuts.

I agree with your sentiment that we are our own worst enemy, basically. For the record, 2000 TT I still consider low time. I'm under 4000TT still and consider myself relatively low time. When you start seeing 5000+ TT applying for Colgan, then you can say the sky is falling.

Yes, there are pilots still trying to get into turbine equipment, whether the timing was wrong or they were furloughed from the airlines and trying to keep flying. I do not see a bunch of what I call high time people keeping flying with the current trends.

For those wanting the shortage, well you might get it; as Sully has said, all the people with experience would not recommend this job and a lot are not returning. So, you will have only the deep pockets getting the job, and you will see a lot of us out there avoid the regionals even more than we do now. I know I have faced the decision already, and always think about it, and if it is worth it right now.

 

[granlistillo]

I am for the new legislation. I was hired at a ridiculously low TT.
When I hired on with PSA in 07, there were a lot of higher time folks, that could not get through the interview process. My sim partner, was an 135 ATP with beacoup hours that couldn't fly the sim.
Bottom line is that airlines lowered the time requirement so as not to exclude some candidates that they felt could get through training. In other words, there are guys at 250 hrs that are better than those with an ATP.

That said, if in 2007, if the legal mins were an ATP, something would have had to give. I guess what they would have done, is hire the ones that had an ATP but couldn't fly a simple sim profile, and just added more training.

 

[mwflyer]

I agree with your sentiment that we are our own worst enemy, basically. For the record, 2000 TT I still consider low time. I'm under 4000TT still and consider myself relatively low time. When you start seeing 5000+ TT applying for Colgan, then you can say the sky is falling.

Yes, there are pilots still trying to get into turbine equipment, whether the timing was wrong or they were furloughed from the airlines and trying to keep flying. I do not see a bunch of what I call high time people keeping flying with the current trends.

For those wanting the shortage, well you might get it; as Sully has said, all the people with experience would not recommend this job and a lot are not returning. So, you will have only the deep pockets getting the job, and you will see a lot of us out there avoid the regionals even more than we do now. I know I have faced the decision already, and always think about it, and if it is worth it right now.

I know that "high time" is a subjective figure. I used 2000 hrs, because thats what the colgan peeps were saying was the minimum to get your resume looked at. Im sure there are some 5000 hr guys in the pile.

 

[Boris Badenov]

Bottom line is that airlines lowered the time requirement so as not to exclude some candidates that they felt could get through training. In other words, there are guys at 250 hrs that are better than those with an ATP.

Are you seriously equating being better at keeping one's eyes open through indoc and flying a simulator with being a better pilot? Of course a Riddle Ace is going to be better at sleeping in class and flying a sim...they've been doing it for the last four years while the actual big boy pilot has been out flying.

 

[granlistillo]

Are you seriously equating being better at keeping one's eyes open through indoc and flying a simulator with being a better pilot?

No, and I didn't say anything of the sort.

 

[Patrick]

A true professional that knew their worth would never fly for low wages, they would find another way to put food on the table. Thats why the new ATP requirement will do nothing to raise wages, because there will always be someone willing to fly for peanuts.

This is unfortunately the biggest problem in our industry. I don't have a good gig right now and try to pickup whatever contract work that I can, but if people don't want to pay me a decent contract rate to do it, I'd rather be doing something else to put food on the table than fly for nothing.

 

[Richman]

Hi all,

Ahhh, nothing like "News by Press Release", which is all this is.

Repeat after me: "There is, and never will be, a pilot shortage".

Now, a shortage of people willing to blow six figures for a $18k/yr job while eating Ramen noodles and living in a refrigerator box under some overpass in EWR, that's a whole other story.

I hope every regional/commuter that has been responsible for taking advantage of people over the last 10-15 years gets utterly boned when they have to start ponying up real money to get people to show up.

Richman