Relax. Your going to stroke out worrying like you do. Read this
https://www.fastcompany.com/3049079...ake-your-job-but-heres-why-you-shouldnt-worry it talks about the 47% number your mentioned in your first post. You can't live life worrying about what might happen you will go crazy
That article made some valid points, but overall I think it was way too optimistic. They are likely correct that most of the low-hanging fruit has already been automated.
The article quotes Mr. Mathiason, who says “There will be a displacement and there will be a repositioning of people into jobs that we don’t even have today that we will have in the future. If you look back in history, you’ll see that this disruption has been going on for some time. Not as fast as what we’re currently experiencing, but nonetheless there. If you look at the historical unemployment rate, you’ll see that with technology advancing, unemployment has actually stayed the same or declined. And I would see that happening for the next decade where the unemployment aspect taking our jobs will be less of a factor, but we’ll be dealing with displacement.”
This is true, but I suspect we will not see as many new jobs appear as we historically have, simply because the advances in technology will mean the new "jobs" that are developed will simply be done with automation instead of as many human employees. New industries and new goods and services will definitely come to be, probably faster than ever before since technology tends to advance exponentially, but relatively few human beings will be needed to man/produce/provide them.
Mathiason goes on to claim that "People where their skills are obsolete will have to reposition themselves with training for different careers. After 10 years, there’s a real potential that it will start to affect employment in the workplace in a way that could be very positive.”
The problem here is that people will be forced to spend large amounts of time and money retraining for new careers. It will be difficult or impossible for most people to make it far into a career before they are displaced, or to accumulate any sort of savings as they will be spending most of their income on education/ retraining. Keep in mind that these displacements will occur more and more frequently as time goes on, because as I mentioned above, technology advances exponentially. For this reason technological unemployment will start to be an issue sooner than most people realize.
Once enough people are unemployed, increased competition for the remaining jobs will put a great deal of downward pressure on wages, so even those who escape structural unemployment will likely see their earnings decline. Also, there will be a decline in consumer demand as more and more people end up out of work, which will probably plunge the economy into a permanent, irrecoverable recession or depression. Another issue is that the jobs that can't be automated out of existence likely require above- average intelligence or special physical/psychomotor skills. Sooner or later people with below-average intelligence or psychomotor skills will have no place at all in our economy.
Much has been made about the fact that many people seem to have been left behind in the recovery from the last recession.
http://www.minnesotabudgetbites.org...left-behind-in-economic-recovery/#.WL4Krn9tha ,
http://www.npr.org/2016/02/25/46814...-boom-has-left-behind-poor-areas-report-finds As the article you linked to pointed out, the low-hanging fruit has already been automated, but more automation is to come. Labor has already declined in value relative to capital, and will only continue to do so. The issue of technological unemployment seems to be the elephant in the room few people are willing to acknowledge, but sooner or later it will be quite obvious it is happening. In the long run it may well prove to be the defining issue of this century. Also, notice that it is since the last recession that these people have been "left behind". This is because, for a number of reasons, downturns tend to accelerate trends that are already underway in the economy. I shudder to think what the job market will look like after the next recession, which we are just about due for. That is why I think this will be the very last hiring wave, and that it will end sooner rather than later.
I'm probably the world's biggest worrier, sometimes can have a little more pessimistic outlook on some things than I should, but agreed. Literally anything could happen, and it's not just unique to the airlines. I've known so many people with high paying jobs outside the industry that have been laid off, had their positions eliminated, had to move their family across the country for a new job multiple times, etc.
You are correct that this is not unique to the airlines. In fact, on this board and other places, I've noticed a lot of pilots have laughably rosy ideas about what other industries and professions are like (and generally think they would be highly-paid doctors, lawyers or engineers if they weren't pilots). However, many industries will be disrupted by technological unemployment and the ensuing decline in consumer demand, as I said in the first part of this post. No matter what profession you are in it is essential to make as much money as you can while the sun is still shining, because soon your opportunities for career advancement and decent remuneration will be gone. I know my goal is to save up as much money as possible before I inevitably end up structurally unemployed when the poop of technological unemployment hits the fan.