Inverted25
Well-Known Member
I always think of the movie intern with Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn when people talk about technology taking my job.
Get there as fast as you can or enjoy the ride (and risk ending up behind the curve)?
- Thread starter flyinghedgehog
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I always think of the movie intern with Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn when people talk about technology taking my job.
Jordan93
Well-Known Member
Exactly. I knew I wanted to be a pilot at legacy and didn't want to do any 135. Some of my buddies did 135 just to see what it was like. I'll be upgrading at my regional when I'm 23/24 while they are just starting their 121 career. No issues with going the other way but I knew what I wanted to do from the beginning and hit the ground running.
Hiboglossi
The Most Depressing Person
That article made some valid points, but overall I think it was way too optimistic. They are likely correct that most of the low-hanging fruit has already been automated.
The article quotes Mr. Mathiason, who says “There will be a displacement and there will be a repositioning of people into jobs that we don’t even have today that we will have in the future. If you look back in history, you’ll see that this disruption has been going on for some time. Not as fast as what we’re currently experiencing, but nonetheless there. If you look at the historical unemployment rate, you’ll see that with technology advancing, unemployment has actually stayed the same or declined. And I would see that happening for the next decade where the unemployment aspect taking our jobs will be less of a factor, but we’ll be dealing with displacement.”
This is true, but I suspect we will not see as many new jobs appear as we historically have, simply because the advances in technology will mean the new "jobs" that are developed will simply be done with automation instead of as many human employees. New industries and new goods and services will definitely come to be, probably faster than ever before since technology tends to advance exponentially, but relatively few human beings will be needed to man/produce/provide them.
Mathiason goes on to claim that "People where their skills are obsolete will have to reposition themselves with training for different careers. After 10 years, there’s a real potential that it will start to affect employment in the workplace in a way that could be very positive.”
The problem here is that people will be forced to spend large amounts of time and money retraining for new careers. It will be difficult or impossible for most people to make it far into a career before they are displaced, or to accumulate any sort of savings as they will be spending most of their income on education/ retraining. Keep in mind that these displacements will occur more and more frequently as time goes on, because as I mentioned above, technology advances exponentially. For this reason technological unemployment will start to be an issue sooner than most people realize.
Once enough people are unemployed, increased competition for the remaining jobs will put a great deal of downward pressure on wages, so even those who escape structural unemployment will likely see their earnings decline. Also, there will be a decline in consumer demand as more and more people end up out of work, which will probably plunge the economy into a permanent, irrecoverable recession or depression. Another issue is that the jobs that can't be automated out of existence likely require above- average intelligence or special physical/psychomotor skills. Sooner or later people with below-average intelligence or psychomotor skills will have no place at all in our economy.
Much has been made about the fact that many people seem to have been left behind in the recovery from the last recession. http://www.minnesotabudgetbites.org...left-behind-in-economic-recovery/#.WL4Krn9tha , http://www.npr.org/2016/02/25/46814...-boom-has-left-behind-poor-areas-report-finds As the article you linked to pointed out, the low-hanging fruit has already been automated, but more automation is to come. Labor has already declined in value relative to capital, and will only continue to do so. The issue of technological unemployment seems to be the elephant in the room few people are willing to acknowledge, but sooner or later it will be quite obvious it is happening. In the long run it may well prove to be the defining issue of this century. Also, notice that it is since the last recession that these people have been "left behind". This is because, for a number of reasons, downturns tend to accelerate trends that are already underway in the economy. I shudder to think what the job market will look like after the next recession, which we are just about due for. That is why I think this will be the very last hiring wave, and that it will end sooner rather than later.
You are correct that this is not unique to the airlines. In fact, on this board and other places, I've noticed a lot of pilots have laughably rosy ideas about what other industries and professions are like (and generally think they would be highly-paid doctors, lawyers or engineers if they weren't pilots). However, many industries will be disrupted by technological unemployment and the ensuing decline in consumer demand, as I said in the first part of this post. No matter what profession you are in it is essential to make as much money as you can while the sun is still shining, because soon your opportunities for career advancement and decent remuneration will be gone. I know my goal is to save up as much money as possible before I inevitably end up structurally unemployed when the poop of technological unemployment hits the fan.
Springer
Well-Known Member
Defined Benefit Plans with penalties for retiring early no longer hang over our heads. The sooner you are hired the sooner you can retire and be able to on your own terms. LBYM
flyinghedgehog
Well-Known Member
Well folks it looks like I am going to go have fun for at least up to another year.
Charter job would not pan out due to 24/7 schedule, which I don't mind anyways...Now I get to go chase after stuff on my bucket list. All things in moderation...not to say I will spend another three years in Alaska, but not to say I will rush to regional either. After all I am still a couple hours shorts, so why not have some fun...and have some fun for a little longer than I need in fact.
I know you can retire and be on your own term if you make the top of the payscale fast, but there is no way you would get to fly turboprop or turbine equipment around places like AK doing off airport stuff. If you are into hardcore WX and want to be super sharp with instrument skill--well I don't think you could ever find equipment that you can afford with solid de-icing, anti icing and solid inertial navigation capability, and at any rate not a turbo prop. I guess being able to operate equipment that is not super sophisticated in really challenging weather give you the confidence and the sense of accomplishment.
There is also getting to live in cool places that are not airline hubs and getting to know the locals. I spent some time on the rez in South Dakota talking to Native Americans, went fishing and stuff in the afternoon when it was too bumpy to fly survey, was in ID enjoying the scenery and got up close to a couple bald eagles. Not to mention that Crater Lake and Grand Canyon look much cooler from lower altitude, and I could even open the windows and stick my hands out! I could definitely buy little plane but--maintenance, gas, hotels and oil adds up pretty quick. It was nice getting to do all that and not having to worry about paying for it.
My experience (as little as I had) flying in Citation jet made me realize that flying super sophisticated equipment in the lower 48 is kind of routine and I felt so removed from what is going on outside. It was just too--sterile, if you know what I mean. Sure it is fun, any kind of flying is better than no flying and good crew can get you through anything. I just want variety.
All things in moderation..........don't hate me for saying that.
Charter job would not pan out due to 24/7 schedule, which I don't mind anyways...Now I get to go chase after stuff on my bucket list. All things in moderation...not to say I will spend another three years in Alaska, but not to say I will rush to regional either. After all I am still a couple hours shorts, so why not have some fun...and have some fun for a little longer than I need in fact.
I know you can retire and be on your own term if you make the top of the payscale fast, but there is no way you would get to fly turboprop or turbine equipment around places like AK doing off airport stuff. If you are into hardcore WX and want to be super sharp with instrument skill--well I don't think you could ever find equipment that you can afford with solid de-icing, anti icing and solid inertial navigation capability, and at any rate not a turbo prop. I guess being able to operate equipment that is not super sophisticated in really challenging weather give you the confidence and the sense of accomplishment.
There is also getting to live in cool places that are not airline hubs and getting to know the locals. I spent some time on the rez in South Dakota talking to Native Americans, went fishing and stuff in the afternoon when it was too bumpy to fly survey, was in ID enjoying the scenery and got up close to a couple bald eagles. Not to mention that Crater Lake and Grand Canyon look much cooler from lower altitude, and I could even open the windows and stick my hands out! I could definitely buy little plane but--maintenance, gas, hotels and oil adds up pretty quick. It was nice getting to do all that and not having to worry about paying for it.
My experience (as little as I had) flying in Citation jet made me realize that flying super sophisticated equipment in the lower 48 is kind of routine and I felt so removed from what is going on outside. It was just too--sterile, if you know what I mean. Sure it is fun, any kind of flying is better than no flying and good crew can get you through anything. I just want variety.
All things in moderation..........don't hate me for saying that.
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flyinghedgehog
Well-Known Member
Everything comes with a price tag. I know having fun will put me a few numbers behind. You can't always get what you want
Hiboglossi
The Most Depressing Person
Well if you don't have enough hours to go to the airlines yet, it's not really putting you any further behind than you would be anyway. What I would avoid is putting off going to the airlines longer than you have to.
flyinghedgehog
Well-Known Member
Well I can try for Republic flight time initiative or Silver Airways Almost there Alex program. Those will pay for the last 100 hour and put me right in the door. I am really close.....100 hours away. You know that.
I would end up feeling like I miss out if I go that route though....don't know. You can't always get what you want. At the end of the day I would be grateful to whoever would give me a flying job (as long as breaking regs is not required)
I would end up feeling like I miss out if I go that route though....don't know. You can't always get what you want. At the end of the day I would be grateful to whoever would give me a flying job (as long as breaking regs is not required)
Hiboglossi
The Most Depressing Person
I wasn't aware of the Silver Airways program. I was actually going to recommend you look into the Republic Flight Time Initiative, but then I saw it's only available if you're enrolled in a part 141 program. Is that not the case? It certainly seems like an odd requirement in the first place.
flyinghedgehog
Well-Known Member
Nah, talked to a recruiter a few weeks ago. 141 is not required to my knowledge. You would owe about 10000 dollars if you leave republic early (not sure if it is a year or two commitment)
If a regional does my ATP and gives me type rating I would stay 2 years for sure. Somehow having to make that commitment right off the bat does not feel comfortable to me.
If a regional does my ATP and gives me type rating I would stay 2 years for sure. Somehow having to make that commitment right off the bat does not feel comfortable to me.
flyinghedgehog
Well-Known Member
hook_dupin
Well-Known Member
This sounds crazy to some: not everybody wants to be a button-pusher in the Flight Levels.
My advice: know who you are and find a segment that will make you happy. Trust me, that will do much better for you in the long run than trying to chase some vision that others think professional flying ought to be.
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