Furlough Estimates

It took about two weeks for this to become a left vs right issue, which is incredibly disappointing. Unfortunately the right is going to demand everything be open and blame any fallout on the left come November and the left is going to demand everything stay closed till November so they can blame the fallout on the right.
 
It took about two weeks for this to become a left vs right issue, which is incredibly disappointing. Unfortunately the right is going to demand everything be open and blame any fallout on the left come November and the left is going to demand everything stay closed till November so they can blame the fallout on the right.
Exactly. Pathetic that almost everything has come to this.
 
I’m sure the “how does that guy keep passing check rides every year?” applies to the medical profession too.
I think this is more of a case of the guy who went from B-52s to 777s talking about how @MikeD is doing sling loads from a helo wrong. Some of the docs might be great at wrapping up a broken leg or even doing surgery, but when it comes to virology or epidemiology they only know enough to sound like they know what they’re talking about.
 
Hey, it ain’t the left turning press conferences into weird pep rallies.
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So how bout them furloughs?


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I hate to be negative but we have to be realistic.

Minimum of 15,000 to 30,000 starting October 1. It takes time to furlough that many, but the total numbers will get that high.

Best case scenario travel gets back to 60% of pre-COVID numbers by the end of 2020. It might return to 100% of pre-COVID levels by 2023. The furloughs will hopefully not last as long as the post 9-11 furloughs due to retirements.

* The asterisk part is early out options like AA has done. If those are offered by DAL and UAL then it would obviously reduce the number necessary from the bottom end of the list.

If I was a U.S. airline pilot I would be pushing the government to stop the border restrictions and lengthy quarantine requirements as soon as possible. Those are literally destroying the airline industry. That can be done with rapid COVID tests like Emirates has already started for every passenger prior to boarding.

Post 9-11 a junior USAirways captain would get bumped down to F.O., then in bankruptcy their pay was reduced. So effectively they went from $200K/year to $75K/year. If you are a junior captain you should be budgeting for a greater than 50% pay cut. Obviously junior F.O.s should be budgeting for a 100% pay cut after their severance and unemployment ends.

I've been furloughed twice from a major. The first time was the deep recession of 1991 and it took one year to find a low paying flying job and almost 4 years to get back to what I was making as a junior F.O.. Post 9-11 I was ahead of the curve because other airlines overseas were still hiring so I had a job three months before my severance ran out. I see this time as more of a 1991 recession scenario because nobody will be hiring for years. You have to be willing to go back down to jobs that you never thought you would have to do again. One of my good friends re-started post 91 furlough working the line at an FBO. Others took jobs at Fedex as delivery drivers or at United throwing bags to get inline for preferential interviews. Be ready to do that if you want to stay in aviation.
 
I hate to be negative but we have to be realistic.

Minimum of 15,000 to 30,000 starting October 1. It takes time to furlough that many, but the total numbers will get that high.

Best case scenario travel gets back to 60% of pre-COVID numbers by the end of 2020. It might return to 100% of pre-COVID levels by 2023. The furloughs will hopefully not last as long as the post 9-11 furloughs due to retirements.

* The asterisk part is early out options like AA has done. If those are offered by DAL and UAL then it would obviously reduce the number necessary from the bottom end of the list.

If I was a U.S. airline pilot I would be pushing the government to stop the border restrictions and lengthy quarantine requirements as soon as possible. Those are literally destroying the airline industry. That can be done with rapid COVID tests like Emirates has already started for every passenger prior to boarding.

Post 9-11 a junior USAirways captain would get bumped down to F.O., then in bankruptcy their pay was reduced. So effectively they went from $200K/year to $75K/year. If you are a junior captain you should be budgeting for a greater than 50% pay cut. Obviously junior F.O.s should be budgeting for a 100% pay cut after their severance and unemployment ends.

I've been furloughed twice from a major. The first time was the deep recession of 1991 and it took one year to find a low paying flying job and almost 4 years to get back to what I was making as a junior F.O.. Post 9-11 I was ahead of the curve because other airlines overseas were still hiring so I had a job three months before my severance ran out. I see this time as more of a 1991 recession scenario because nobody will be hiring for years. You have to be willing to go back down to jobs that you never thought you would have to do again. One of my good friends re-started post 91 furlough working the line at an FBO. Others took jobs at Fedex as delivery drivers or at United throwing bags to get inline for preferential interviews. Be ready to do that if you want to stay in aviation.
How are things at Cathay? You been flying at all? Seeing any differences between Asia and US crowd sizes and their behavior? Is Cathay already furloughing?
 
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I’ll bet you have a face tattoo and guns!!!!

how’d I do guys?

There is a reason I don't post here very often. I write an informed personal opinion and someone thinks to make it into a silly comment with a foolish retort like the above. Can we have an educated adult conversation about it or do you just like the childish retorts?


Quarantine scenario draws contempt from UK airline and crew circles
By David Kaminski-Morrow11 May 2020




Airline and cockpit crew representatives have condemned indications by UK prime minister Boris Johnson that he is prepared to introduce quarantine measures for inbound passengers to the UK.

Johnson spoke on 10 May, outlining “conditional” steps towards easing the lockdown imposed on the country in March following the coronavirus outbreak.

“To prevent re-infection from abroad, I’m serving notice that it will soon be the time – with transmission significantly lower – to impose quarantine on people coming into this country by air,” he said.

Johnson added that the government would “not hesitate to put on the brakes” if the situation deteriorated.

Carrier association Airlines UK and pilots’ union BALPA, however, have sharply criticised the possible introduction of a 14-day quarantine requirement.

“We all, including government, need to adapt to the ‘new normal’,” says Airlines UK chief Tim Alderslade. “But closing off air travel in this way is not the way to achieve this.

“Ministers are effectively telling people they can no longer travel for the foreseeable future and airlines will respond to that by grounding their operations.”

BALPA has expressed scepticism over the mooted quarantine of passengers, adding that it has seen neither the scientific basis for the proposal nor any risk assessment for crews’ health.

The commercial impact, like other aspects of the proposition, “have not been thoroughly thought through”, it adds.

UK carriers have grounded most of their operations

BALPA general secretary Brian Strutton says the union is seeking details on the government’s plan for commercial aviation, saying there are “too many open questions” and a quarantine proposal will “put even more pressure on the industry”.

Airlines UK has been urging government support for the industry including extension of job-retention initiatives and deferral of air passenger duty, air navigation charges, and other fees.

The Board of Airline Representatives in the UK, which represents carriers serving the country, says a considered plan would need to replace any quarantine measure.

“Flying can only recommence in any meaningful way once the 14-day self-isolation requirement is superseded by a carefully co-ordinated and internationally-harmonised approach,” says BAR UK chief executive Dale Keller.

Such an approach, he says, would incorporate a series of “multi-layered and more effective measures” to target and mitigate risk and provide “the confidence that flying is safe”.
 
There is a reason I don't post here very often. I write an informed personal opinion and someone thinks to make it into a silly comment with a foolish retort like the above. Can we have an educated adult conversation about it or do you just like the childish retorts?


Quarantine scenario draws contempt from UK airline and crew circles
By David Kaminski-Morrow11 May 2020




Airline and cockpit crew representatives have condemned indications by UK prime minister Boris Johnson that he is prepared to introduce quarantine measures for inbound passengers to the UK.

Johnson spoke on 10 May, outlining “conditional” steps towards easing the lockdown imposed on the country in March following the coronavirus outbreak.

“To prevent re-infection from abroad, I’m serving notice that it will soon be the time – with transmission significantly lower – to impose quarantine on people coming into this country by air,” he said.

Johnson added that the government would “not hesitate to put on the brakes” if the situation deteriorated.

Carrier association Airlines UK and pilots’ union BALPA, however, have sharply criticised the possible introduction of a 14-day quarantine requirement.

“We all, including government, need to adapt to the ‘new normal’,” says Airlines UK chief Tim Alderslade. “But closing off air travel in this way is not the way to achieve this.

“Ministers are effectively telling people they can no longer travel for the foreseeable future and airlines will respond to that by grounding their operations.”

BALPA has expressed scepticism over the mooted quarantine of passengers, adding that it has seen neither the scientific basis for the proposal nor any risk assessment for crews’ health.

The commercial impact, like other aspects of the proposition, “have not been thoroughly thought through”, it adds.

UK carriers have grounded most of their operations

BALPA general secretary Brian Strutton says the union is seeking details on the government’s plan for commercial aviation, saying there are “too many open questions” and a quarantine proposal will “put even more pressure on the industry”.

Airlines UK has been urging government support for the industry including extension of job-retention initiatives and deferral of air passenger duty, air navigation charges, and other fees.

The Board of Airline Representatives in the UK, which represents carriers serving the country, says a considered plan would need to replace any quarantine measure.

“Flying can only recommence in any meaningful way once the 14-day self-isolation requirement is superseded by a carefully co-ordinated and internationally-harmonised approach,” says BAR UK chief executive Dale Keller.

Such an approach, he says, would incorporate a series of “multi-layered and more effective measures” to target and mitigate risk and provide “the confidence that flying is safe”.

I tried to voice my opinion earlier and was accosted. I always appreciate your input. I think things will return quicker than you stated.I believe the big question is risk vs reward. That’s where parties here and everywhere split.
 
Now I'm more confused than usual. But I'm the guy who couldn't remember what asparagus was called at the grocery store today.

I left Emirates for Boeing in late 2013; left Boeing for an offer I couldn't refuse in early 2017; got laid off Feb 20, but still live in Taiwan.

I could have been gainfully employed by multiple different places already if it wasn't for the border restrictions and quarantines in place. They are preventing any work from happening right now.

So it is possible that AAPalmTree is right that a recovery will be quicker once the restrictions ease, but the longer they persist the less likely that is to happen. I'd personally take a rapid COVID test every day over a 14 day quarantine and border restrictions if it meant I could travel and work.
 
There is a reason I don't post here very often. I write an informed personal opinion and someone thinks to make it into a silly comment with a foolish retort like the above. Can we have an educated adult conversation about it or do you just like the childish retorts?

Derg says we need to use our thinking caps


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I and my family had covid. It was like a severe flu. I understand how dangerous this is for some individuals. My take is that the country needs to open back up. Let the healthy work. Too much damage being done to the country.


Okay, thanks for that. I tend to agree with you. Glad you and your family have recovered.

I've had 4 contract trips fall through and 3 full time jobs placed on hold due to these restrictions. It is very frustrating to say the least.
 
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