Furlough Estimates

Cherokee_Cruiser said:
Of course there will be a major vaccine announcement before Nov 3.
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On the trucks by 1Nov. “Dry run” distribution/warehousing drills in Oct. Hopefully it’ll have better results with covid patients than thalidomide did with pregnant women (or their kids, really).

There was a reason that it took 6 years for the Manhattan Project to go from theory to Trinity. Science. FDR couldn’t will or proclaim the completion. “We’ll have the bomb by Christmas!” He didn’t want to drag it out, but it took what it took with actual experts (not Mike and Jared) to get it done.
 
SteveC said:
My personal take is that the CDC is planning ahead, and sees an absolute best case scenario of that time frame. On the long-shot chance that trials are conclusive by then (very doubtful!), they want the infrastructure gearing/geared up for distribution.

Don’t put too much stake into this as a coming reality - they’re just making sure the distribution is set up if/when needed.

”The scenario documents do not necessarily mean a vaccine will be available by late October. Pandemic planning exercises have for years included recommendations that the federal government ready a distribution network while scientists work on a vaccine.
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Companies developing the vaccines are already ramping up manufacturing so that, in case one or more is found safe and effective in people, it could start going into arms immediately.“
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I viewed it more as, "Hey, let's figure out the logistics of it all now so that we are prepared and not getting in our own way when a vaccine is available" than "A vaccine is right around the corner. Let's start prepping for it."

I'm hoping that the article of the study that you posted yesterday is accurate and that studies will come out of it with great treatment options. Treatment options and a vaccine would be great!
 
I've been reading for the last 2 months they expected an approval by end of Sept-Oct and would have 100m doses by December. CDC even backed that up and said they were very optimistic it would happen and the FDA would likely approve. So I'm not really surprised by this news. It's been on this path for many weeks.

But everyone in here is saying unlikely, not a chance, or they're still years out. Maybe I've been reading wrong but Pfizer and Moderna said that back in July. I understand phase 3 usually takes years, but from my understanding we already had a head start from trying to develop vaccines for other families of Coronavirus. Either way, I for one am optimistic about this.
 
Cruise said:
Agreed; this guy isn't going to wind up a nightwalker either! :oops: I'm highly skeptical of any vaccine that's being ramrodded through trials (which isn't the same as being anti-vax, btw). Trials are there for a reason and skipping them is lazy science.
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So Covid's deaths aren't so bad as to rush a little for a vaccine? Or there's no way to be sure the vaccine isn't poisin so don't take it? I've been laughing along with the "I'm not gonna be first in line" jokes but seriously, you think this vaccine is going to harm you or the chances of it harming you are greater than getting Covid?

If the argument is the vaccine isn't going to do anything because it hasn't been tested enough then I don't see why we wouldn't take it in hopes the rushed process does create something useful.
 
tcco94 said:
But everyone in here is saying unlikely, not a chance, or they're still years out. Maybe I've been reading wrong but Pfizer and Moderna said that back in July. I understand phase 3 usually takes years, but from my understanding we already had a head start from trying to develop vaccines for other families of Coronavirus. Either way, I for one am optimistic about this.
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As I understand it, a lot of the work on a SARS vaccine was done already. (As I understand it; my time in biotech was limited, was pretty far from the 'rock face' but we all did sit through "this is how this works, FDA- and regulatory-approvals wise" training.)
 
jynxyjoe said:
So Covid's deaths aren't so bad as to rush a little for a vaccine? Or there's no way to be sure the vaccine isn't poisin so don't take it? I've been laughing along with the "I'm not gonna be first in line" jokes but seriously, you think this vaccine is going to harm you or the chances of it harming you are greater than getting Covid?

If the argument is the vaccine isn't going to do anything because it hasn't been tested enough then I don't see why we wouldn't take it in hopes the rushed process does create something useful.
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You’re forgetting about the autism.
 
Cruise said:
Agreed; this guy isn't going to wind up a nightwalker either! :oops: I'm highly skeptical of any vaccine that's being ramrodded through trials (which isn't the same as being anti-vax, btw). Trials are there for a reason and skipping them is lazy science.
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...though it would be neat to start the new year freed of two of our plagues (the Donald J. Trump Memorial Coronavirus, and Donald J. Trump)
 
What’s the general consensus here, is CARES 2.0 going to pass? Mainly, will there be a grant for payroll support? I can’t imagine airlines taking payroll support unless it’s a “free” grant. Why take a loan for payroll?
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
What’s the general consensus here, is CARES 2.0 going to pass? Mainly, will there be a grant for payroll support? I can’t imagine airlines taking payroll support unless it’s a “free” grant. Why take a loan for payroll?
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I think Congress goes back into session just before the budget needs to pass, Senate after. I'd say there is no chance. I could ping STC's lobbyist but I don't want to take up any bandwidth.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
What’s the general consensus here, is CARES 2.0 going to pass? Mainly, will there be a grant for payroll support? I can’t imagine airlines taking payroll support unless it’s a “free” grant. Why take a loan for payroll?
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Speaking as me, based on my reading of the Congressional tea leaves, I wouldn't expect much. Last I heard the WH and House were about $700 billion apart on the next stimulus.

I would expect that there'd be more support in there, as the rather eclectic combination of House Dems, Senate Rs and the WH had agreed to $25 billion more in principle for PSP, but at this point, I think whatever they do may well be too late, and might not include the strong labor guardrail we had (what a win!) in CARES 1.

But that's just my read, I could be pleasantly surprised ... but I doubt it.
 
The worse part is there are some guys who are not going to come out of this alive. Historically speaking, after the 9/11 furloughs and the 2008 GFC furloughs/shut downs, there were pilot suicides. I know a VX CA from Aloha who told me of two Aloha pilots who took their lives after the March '08 shut down.

:(
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
The worse part is there are some guys who are not going to come out of this alive. Historically speaking, after the 9/11 furloughs and the 2008 GFC furloughs/shut downs, there were pilot suicides. I know a VX CA from Aloha who told me of two Aloha pilots who took their lives after the March '08 shut down.

:(
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We (industry) already have lost some, sadly.
 
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