Furlough Estimates

BEEF SUPREME said:
So at least 10,000 pilots on the street October 1?
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Including regional airlines, probably yes. After furlough mitigation, probably around 6,000 at the Big 3. I’m going to guess that Southwest finds a way to avoid them, but that’s just a hunch with nothing to back that up. Then there’s ALK, NK, F9 and the regionals and whatever their plans are. Probably pretty close to 10,000 when it’s all said and done.
 
I think this was discussed earlier, what is the capacity of the United, Delta, and American training centers? They can’t just axe 10,000 pilots in reverse seniority on 1 Oct and still fill seats with qualified folks the next day.
 
Autothrust Blue said:
While your disposition to read the worst is, in this environment, entirely justifiable, a WARN letter does not necessarily mean that a furlough will occur.
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I’d say my disposition is prudent. Most pilots don’t have a great grasp of how devastated the economy is right now. Not to mention next year or 5. I’m glad I started work at the bike shop. However, now I wonder how long people will be buying bicycles.


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BEEF SUPREME said:
I’d say my disposition is prudent. Most pilots don’t have a great grasp of how devastated the economy is right now. Not to mention next year or 5. I’m glad I started work at the bike shop. However, now I wonder how long people will be buying bicycles.
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See, I'm not buying bikes because I am concerned I will be furloughed.
 
Autothrust Blue said:
See, I'm not buying bikes because I am concerned I will be furloughed.
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That’s going to start feeding into the recession like a nuclear bitch slap once everyone else wakes up to the reality their job is going bye bye.

I’m not just talking about pilots either.

The real fun is when the banks realize no one can pay their loan.


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BEEF SUPREME said:
That’s going to start feeding into the recession like a nuclear bitch slap once everyone else wakes up to the reality their job is going bye bye.

I’m not just talking about pilots either.

The real fun is when the banks realize no one can pay their loan.


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Oddly enough the same people that told me I had to have X months of cash on hand were first in line for bailout cheddar.

As I have opined elsewhere, the Fed's rather quick intervention ensures that the financial system will not collapse, which is good, but insufficient; further fiscal measures are required too.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
The real fun is when the banks realize no one can pay their loan.
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They realize - they've set aside a billions for the losses, and will probably be adding more. Banks are smart enough to package up and sell the worst of loans though, so there's a good chance you own the risk indirectly somehow.

For what it's worth, debt is still trading at a pretty good discount to stocks. Only thing I own now.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
They realize - they've set aside a billions for the losses, and will probably be adding more. Banks are smart enough to package up and sell the worst of loans though, so there's a good chance you own the risk indirectly somehow.

For what it's worth, debt is still trading at a pretty good discount to stocks. Only thing I own now.
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brrr.money

Money printer go BRRR

Print it, baby!
brrr.money brrr.money
 
deadstick said:
I think this was discussed earlier, what is the capacity of the United, Delta, and American training centers? They can’t just axe 10,000 pilots in reverse seniority on 1 Oct and still fill seats with qualified folks the next day.
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There won’t be a need the next day. As I’ve been saying since March, this is a 10 year problem. Nobody wanted to listen...then the WARN notices hit.
 
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