What a steaming pile this is.
I'm quasi inclined to agree, I think it's garbage that my oodles of single pilot time in the last few years mean nothing towards an upgrade - irregardless of potential future seniority numbers, but I also think the frozen ATP concept is valid and useable. Not to say that it won't take my scuzzy ass 1000hrs of right seat time to get used to what's required in some fast mover, but the principle of guys with lot's of single pilot freight time being less qualified on paper than guys that threw the gear lever in the
same airplane (1900 for example) for 1000hrs is beyond me. The fact that theoretically speaking, a guy could have 10,000hrs SPIFR in a 1900/Metroliner then go to Gulfstream, Lakes or (insert last surviving 121 metro operator here) and no longer be qualified to be a captain is mindblowing to me. That said, this will do good things for 121, probably bad things for 135. Pay will probably go up at 121 operators as the supply of ATP-able pilots diminishes overnight. Pay will probably go down at Alaska operators and mapping companies and flight schools with the glut of pilots trying to get up to 1500hrs. Pay at lower 48 cargo will probably go up due to the fact that cargo companies won't be able to keep anyone longer than 300hrs of flight time until they go off to the now better paying RJ world - especially for the ranks of metro and hondo drivers.
In the end, I see a world of:
Low Paid Bush Rats - High Fatalities out in West Alaska
Low Paid Entry Level Cargo Guys - Martex, Amflight Navajos, Keylime Navajos, Freight Runners 402s, etc.
Slightly Better Pay for Midlevel Cargo Guys - 1900 Drivers, Metros, FedEx Feeder guys, the few remaining Bandeirantes, etc. as companies try to juggle training these guys with keeping them around, the "skip the regional mess" may not be as enticing as it once was.
Slightly Better Pay for much of the charter and ondemand market - who's going to put up with crappy schedules and ridiculous callout periods when the regionals offer more?
Demonstrably Better Pay for the Regionals - First year pay will probably still suck, but I see there being a need to keep captains and FOs on longer since it will be more difficult to get both captains and FOs, the Unions will have a lot more bargaining power than I think they realize yet.
Static Wages in the Major-National world - Places like Spirit, Allegiant, JetBlue, and Virgin all still attractive to a lot of people, they'll continue to cause the regionals to atrite though the rate may be less.
Stagnate or Diminishing Wages in the Legacy Camps - They'll still have a readily available supply of people who are willing to make the leap. Hiring mins may go down, probably won't matter even if they do. With American talking about wanting to do more regional flying, I don't see the Legacy carriers slowing down in their outsourcing.
Of course all this could change rapidly if the economy makes another nose-dive, if gas goes to $8.50/gallon, or if some other calamity or terrorist attack otherwises intrudes into the next wave. That said, those of us with ATPs or enough total time now could be sitting relatively pretty by the end of 2013 - provided John Cusack's sketchy brother-in-law doesn't have to fly us out of a crumbling LA basin.