Diversion Dillema

[ZapBrannigan]

Scenario:
Departing from an island in the Caribbean enroute to a large city in the Midwest. Alternate is a small city with no 121 air service, about 30 miles west of the destination. No significant weather forecast at time of departure.

Around top of descent you realize that a large thunderstorm has formed just north of the destination airport. Not really associated with a line of storms, just a few supercells. Weather at the alternate is still good - but as it was a paper alternate, you start looking for more realistic alternates.

No such luck. You don't have the fuel to try an approach, miss, and then reach another suitable 121 airport. Dispatch thinks you'll beat the weather to the field, so you continue.

On downwind the storm has reached the north field boundary. You are about to turn base to the east/west runway when you see several lightning strikes between you and the airport. It's still visual between you and the end of the runway, but it's dark and radar is painting extreme rain at the core of the storm, just beginning to encroach on the field.

The other end of the runway is still in the clear and approach offers to vector you around for an approach from that direction.

Airplane full of international pax. Alternate is suitable and VFR, but essentially a GA airport. Still VFR at the airport, but just barely. The whole way from the islands you've made conservative decisions to give a wide berth to even yellow on the radar. But now here's this deep red storm just on the other side of the airport.

What do you think?


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[Space Monkey]

So... MYNN to KORD with KDPA as alternate. ammirite?

BTW, when you file a "paper" alternate and don't end up with enough fuel for a "real" alternate... hate to say it, but somebody's doing it wrong. Common, but wrong.

Flying 'round the patch to the "other" runway in the face of an impinging storm sounds like Little Rock, part Deux.

Then again... it's commercial aviation. Act accordingly, and FIFI !!


Hemingway, we're all agog with baited breath. To bastardize John King, "What did you do?"

 

[derg]

Scenario:
Departing from an island in the Caribbean enroute to a large city in the Midwest. Alternate is a small city with no 121 air service, about 30 miles west of the destination. No significant weather forecast at time of departure.

Around top of descent you realize that a large thunderstorm has formed just north of the destination airport. Not really associated with a line of storms, just a few supercells. Weather at the alternate is still good - but as it was a paper alternate, you start looking for more realistic alternates.

No such luck. You don't have the fuel to try an approach, miss, and then reach another suitable 121 airport. Dispatch thinks you'll beat the weather to the field, so you continue.

On downwind the storm has reached the north field boundary. You are about to turn base to the east/west runway when you see several lightning strikes between you and the airport. It's still visual between you and the end of the runway, but it's dark and radar is painting extreme rain at the core of the storm, just beginning to encroach on the field.

The other end of the runway is still in the clear and approach offers to vector you around for an approach from that direction.

Airplane full of international pax. Alternate is suitable and VFR, but essentially a GA airport. Still VFR at the airport, but just barely. The whole way from the islands you've made conservative decisions to give a wide berth to even yellow on the radar. But now here's this deep red storm just on the other side of the airport.

What do you think?


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I haven’t read the rest of the thread, but I’ve got a few problems.

Paper alternates are worse than no alternate at all because the situation can go “dynamic” and it wasn’t a viable option to begin with. There’s no reason at all that dispatch couldn’t be queried to produce a viable alternate, hopefully with customs (unless there was some sort of preclearance on the island the crew left). There have been times when I’ve gotten an alternate for somewhere like BOS where we’d have to cross the line of weather we’re diverting for and I just prod dispatch for a viable alternate that we could actually use.

Don’t do “paper alternates”. Then you’ve diverted to GA airport, plane load full of international passengers and ZERO resources other than a runway. Can you taxi? Is there an FBO with a suitable ramp? What happens if you time-out? What if there’s a medical? Does the airport have suitable CFR? If someone sprains an ankle, sues the company and they pull up all of the evidentiary material from the flight during discovery, is it going to look good?

We have certain criteria for convective weather and if I have to break the criteria for operational convenience, it’s just not something I’m interested in doing.

Not really sure about the culture, but my “kink” is I don’t care if it looks legal, I want it to be viable.

So no online airport available within limits?

 

[Space Monkey]

So... MYNN to KORD with KDPA as alternate. ammirite?

BTW, when you file a "paper" alternate and don't end up with enough fuel for a "real" alternate... hate to say it, but somebody's doing it wrong. Common, but wrong.

Hemingway, we're all agog with baited breath. To bastardize John King, "What did you do?"

Still wondering what your solution was, but...

Doh! I win the dip-shirt award. Here's an example of baited breath:

 

[ZapBrannigan]

I'm not going to say what we ultimately did. Just wanted to see what you captains and future captains would've done given this scenario and its various complexities.


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[Screaming_Emu]

I definitely would give the dispatcher a call before departure. Back at Surejet they used to do something similar to us all the time. Fly to IAD and put the alternate as BWI. Meanwhile there were instructions in the company pages not to divert to BWI because it’s difficult to get back out in a timely manner. At that time we had reached a monumental level of not giving a crap, so people diverted there anyway. Don’t want us to go there, don’t plan us that way. The jaded pilot in me almost would want to divert to the non 121 airport. The only way they stop planning things this way are if it comes back to bite them. Unfortunately as the flight crew, we’ll be the ones stuck cleaning up the mess.

If you’re already on your way before you discover this is a bad idea, I’d be talking to dispatch in an attempt to get a reanalysis. Maybe you’re under burning and now a real alternate airport becomes an option. Come up with a plan B that makes you both happy, otherwise start thinking about a fuel stop somewhere along the way.

 

[mikecweb]

This one time I was bringing an airplane to @Screaming_Emu and we couldn’t get into Shanghai and end up diverting to our filed alternate, Ningbo, China.

 

[Screaming_Emu]

This one time I was bringing an airplane to @Screaming_Emu and we couldn’t get into Shanghai and end up diverting to our filed alternate, Ningbo, China.

“…and some say the airplane is still there waiting for customs to open.”

 

[saxman]

Assuming I’m already in the air I’d have selected a couple of actual plans of escape while on the way there.

I remember flying in the Midwest and not having an alternate at all. TAF is clear and off we go. Not even an hour later there are the biggest single supercells that I’ve ever seen along the route. Thinking to myself as we start a few asking for 10° left, yup shoulda asked for fuel. Ahh learning experiences.


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[Flyinthrew]

Once I realized I didn't have an actual alternate, I would have calculated holding fuel and hung out for as long as I needed to at altitude. Why can I say this with certainty? Done it. With Nexrad (and to a lesser extent if your onboard radar can be overlaid on a map) you can be pretty high SA on what is about to happen to your destination.

If I decided to continue because it didn't seem that bad or inertia just carried me along, I'd be holding at the IAF that I am currently pointed at while the situation develops. The storm is x miles wide and moving y miles per hour. Can I wait that long? There is a mature thunderstorm that is about to blow its entire load right where I'm trying to go. It is not going to get any more dangerous than it is right now. It is an airmass thunderstorm so it will likely be only 10-15 minutes and the worst will have passed.

If I can't do that then it is on to the alternate and it's administrative damage control instead of actual damage control.

If I was in some sort of emergency on top of that I would have briefed windshear recognition and escape on downwind, then full send provided the FO didn't have a better idea. It'll probably be ok.

 

[Soul Brotha']

When you sign for the release, you and the dispatcher are saying you both agree that this is a good release/filing. If you are not happy with the release because of XXX, don’t sign and call the dispatcher. “Here’s why I’m not comfortable, ……………”

 

[Gonzo]

So... MYNN to KORD with KDPA as alternate. ammirite?

My guess is MBJ or SJU to MDW and RFD as the alternate.
If I am right than I would just go to RFD. If i didn't like the alternate than I should have fixed it at the gate not at TOD. I have also been there and done that, the fixing the alternate in the air and ended up at NQA, never again.

 

[Space Monkey]

Yeah, that probably does make more sense, 'specially if it's that airline. The 30 nm threw me.

 

[mikecweb]

My guess is MBJ or SJU to MDW and RFD as the alternate.
If I am right than I would just go to RFD. If i didn't like the alternate than I should have fixed it at the gate not at TOD. I have also been there and done that, the fixing the alternate in the air and ended up at NQA, never again.

Except RFD has significant 121 service.

 

[Roger Roger]

Except RFD has significant 121 service.

Yah I remember the summer I was working there seeing a UAL wide body (mighta been a 777?) divert.

 

[azmedic]

I hate the “paper alternate” from an operations management standpoint. The logistical nightmare of trying to get ahold of someone at Ma and Pa’s FBO and Tire Center outside of their operational hours can be incredibly difficult. It’s not realistic to call them 5 hours prior and say you “might” divert there in the next 3-4 hours. They have lives outside of the airport too I’m sure. Engine on fire,or another critical emergency,by all means,get it on the ground. Diverting for weather? Some place actually able to handle a commercial airliner makes the most sense. Let’s say you go into Nowheresville,IA with international pax and now your original destination is socked in and now you have a passenger issue due to no CBP there…social media suicide these days.


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[gotWXdagain]

Malicious compliance? Some people only learn the hard way.

 

[Space Monkey]

I hate the “paper alternate” from an operations management standpoint. The logistical nightmare of trying to get ahold of someone at Ma and Pa’s FBO and Tire Center outside of their operational hours can be incredibly difficult. It’s not realistic to call them 5 hours prior and say you “might” divert there in the next 3-4 hours. They have lives outside of the airport too I’m sure. Engine on fire,or another critical emergency,by all means,get it on the ground. Diverting for weather? Some place actually able to handle a commercial airliner makes the most sense. Let’s say you go into Nowheresville,IA with international pax and now your original destination is socked in and now you have a passenger issue due to no CBP there…social media suicide these days.


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Hmmm, ok.

I guess I'd be thinking more about the comfort and safety of my Pax than about what a bunch of screen-staring troglodytes think of me.

 

[Crockrocket94]

Well, if the weather looked bad as you got closer, get another alternate and divert on the descent to a suitable airport via Dispatch concurrence and take care of customs, fuel whatever, then blast off towards the intended airport when the storm is gone. But given your scenario I you've moved past that point...

Im guessing you didn't have holding fuel to "wait it out"...

So you've got 2 options, go to your alternate and get fuel... or press on and hope it comes out ok. What did ya do? lol.

 

[jtrain609]

Scenario:
Departing from an island in the Caribbean enroute to a large city in the Midwest. Alternate is a small city with no 121 air service, about 30 miles west of the destination. No significant weather forecast at time of departure.

Around top of descent you realize that a large thunderstorm has formed just north of the destination airport. Not really associated with a line of storms, just a few supercells. Weather at the alternate is still good - but as it was a paper alternate, you start looking for more realistic alternates.

No such luck. You don't have the fuel to try an approach, miss, and then reach another suitable 121 airport. Dispatch thinks you'll beat the weather to the field, so you continue.

On downwind the storm has reached the north field boundary. You are about to turn base to the east/west runway when you see several lightning strikes between you and the airport. It's still visual between you and the end of the runway, but it's dark and radar is painting extreme rain at the core of the storm, just beginning to encroach on the field.

The other end of the runway is still in the clear and approach offers to vector you around for an approach from that direction.

Airplane full of international pax. Alternate is suitable and VFR, but essentially a GA airport. Still VFR at the airport, but just barely. The whole way from the islands you've made conservative decisions to give a wide berth to even yellow on the radar. But now here's this deep red storm just on the other side of the airport.

What do you think?


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So, a few things.

The first mistakes were made at the gate. As others have said, if you don't like the alternate, then you don't accept the release. I understand as an FO all you can probably do is strenuously object, but I'd certainly make my views on the issue known if I were that FO.

But let's say you both walked past that one, the next out you've got is when you realize things are going downhill at the destination airport. You should get another alternate at this point. If you don't have the gas, you land short. STL has customs. ATL has customs and is a hub. BNA might as well be a hub and probably has customs. Landing short to get more gas is ALWAYS an option.

But let's say you, the Captain, and the Dispatcher all walked past that one, and now you're in a square corner.

At this point, you bail.

What happens when you get vectored around and now the side of the runway you want to get into is clear, but you get wind shear and have to go around straight into that cell? That sounds subpar. You've already painted yourself into a corner by this point, there's no reason to make it worse.

You get out of town, get to the alternate, you gas and go and by the time you're back to the hub, everything will be great. If something goes terribly wrong and you time out? Well, at that point it's not your problem, it's the company's problem, and they're paid good money to solve these problems.