Article: What really happened on Air France 447

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Wow. I think you need to re-read my post. You completely are misrepresenting my position. Fortunately, we are NOT going back to the way events were analyzed "in the good old days". The industry can't afford to go back to the associated fatality rates. The industry will continue to work to improve pilot skills, but not misidentify events and try to read things into the data that is not there to support that endeavor. Some events play to it, others do not. If we were to say that pilot skill was the answer to AF447 then we have missed a learning opportunity and a chance to prevent it from happening in the future. Unfortunately, a large percentage of pilots, (yes,even those with a background similar to Sully's), could easily have been led down the wrong path in the AF scenario. It has to do with a lot of factors, including the individual startle response.

From your posts, I do not get the impression that you have any experience flying advanced large transport aircraft. Perhaps that is making it more difficult for you to see.

Qutch said:
And that was the point of our Human Factors research. . Pilots returning to long forgotten instinctive (old school) abilities. . Abilities stomped out of them in the stampede of the avionics manufacturing/defense lobby, a lobby throwing money at the Congress, the White House, and other "policy makers". . We've been waiting to see how far the pendulum would have to swing in this direction before high profile accidents like Colgan and AF 447 forced the system to consider swinging the pendulum back in the opposite direction. . It seems we have arrived at that point. . I expect the special interests and policy makers to resist and vigorously defend their turf. . In the mean time, for young pilots who would like to learn some of those "old school" seat-of-the-pants survival instincts, the opportunity is there for them if they wish to learn. .

"I learned these fundamental skills very well," said Sullenberger, now a CBS News Aviation Safety Expert, "they were so deeply internalized that even after 40 years they were very accessible to me.

(Sounds very "old school." Hopefully you can set him straight.)




You really are quite the entertainer. . Let me know when you plan to straighten Sullenberger out. . I want to watch. . You can contact him at http://safetyreliability.com/about-us.html
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seagull said:
I'd argue with him on this topic -- and I would win. His credentials you posted are not particularly unusual, by the way, so don't bother going there. That said, I think that he would come around fairly easily, ........In answer to your last line, we do have some on JC that can match his credentials. ...By the way, Sully was lucky. He would be the first to tell you that.
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seagull said:
......Unfortunately, a large percentage of pilots, (yes,even those with a background similar to Sully's), could easily have been led down the wrong path in the AF scenario.....
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At this point, I just want to see you follow through and debate this with Sullenberger. . You've said an awfully lot about your superior knowledge on the subject over him. . I don't know Sullenberger but we had him in to speak to our group. . I do know his schedulers. . I spoke to one at SRM and sent an email to Barbara and Allie, including a brief summary of the issue you'd like to debate, along with your comments on Sullenberger. . If someone (JC?) will meet the speaking fee this could be arranged between the 2 of you. . I could not speak for JC of course so they'd have to contact SRM. . It could be done pretty reasonably via webcast for JC Members. . No travel required. . Sullenberger apparently feels very strongly about this issue of newer pilots losing flying skills and they see no obstacle to arranging something. . That would be a unique and interesting event for JC. .

You've had a lot to say on this subject, and about Sullenberger himself. . It's an interesting topic. . No reason to keep going over it with me. . I sent you the info, it's all yours. . If you're serious, go for it.
 
I don't get your point because it seems like Sully and seagull agree.

Qutch said:
Sullenberger apparently feels very strongly about this issue of newer pilots losing flying skills
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seagull said:
You see, I have been, as have several others participating in this thread, strong advocates for basic airmanship, and have been calling on the industry to make changes in the approach to this for the last 25 years in working groups advertised to be comprised of "experts".
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New pilots are losing a lot of basic flying skills. I see it every day at airlines from AA to West Jet(NO X,Y or Z airlines). We are getting to a generation of pilots that have never really done upset training or flown a tail wheel, and you see it out on the line and sitting in the jump seat of flights. No body is saying we don't need basic skills. The point I(and it seems seagull) am trying to make is the pilots of AF447 could have been the greatest stick and rudder pilots in the world and it wouldn't have saved them without understanding how to us the skills they had.
 

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Originally Posted by seagull

"I'd argue with him on this topic -- and I would win."



(I don't make the news, I just report it.)
 
Can you try to stay on topic here, do you or do you not agree with my point?

Gonzo said:
The point I(and it seems seagull) am trying to make is the pilots of AF447 could have been the greatest stick and rudder pilots in the world and it wouldn't have saved them without understanding how to us the skills they had.
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.

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Originally Posted by seagull

......Unfortunately, a large percentage of pilots, (yes,even those with a background similar to Sully's), could easily have been led down the wrong path in the AF scenario.....


(I'm just reading what the man said.)
 
What does seagull have to do with me?

The point I am trying to make is the pilots of AF447 could have been the greatest stick and rudder pilots in the world and it wouldn't have saved them without understanding how to us the skills they had.
 
Doug Taylor said:
But you oughtn't answer homebrew's questions! :)
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You're correct. . I did not answer the question. . It's not really a question. . Just gibberish.


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Originally Posted by Gonzo

The point I(and it seems seagull) am trying to make is the pilots of AF447 could have been the greatest stick and rudder pilots in the world and it wouldn't have saved them without understanding how to us the skills they had.

"how to us the skills they had" ??????
 
It seems to all be about automation management, CRM, and aircraft systems knowlege. Judging from the article, it seems all three of those broke down and that is part of the reason an A330 went missing in the Atlantic the night of June 1 2009. None of us were there, and those of you making it sound as simple as pushing the nose down to execute a stall recovery are acting pretty irrational. When the old lizard brain tells you you're gonna die, people tend to act irrationally and make poor decisions and falling suddenly towards the ocean in the middle of the night in exteme weather qualifies as an "Oh crap" moment. Here are some of my biggest questions:

A. Why was the radar set incorrectly? Seems inexusable for 3 relatively experienced pilots flying an A330 beetween continents.

B. Why didn't they take a route change liek other aircraft in the area were doing that night? By the sound of it, they were aware weather existed in the area, why take a gamble?
 
A150K said:
It seems to all be about automation management, CRM, and aircraft systems knowlege. Judging from the article, it seems all three of those broke down and that is part of the reason an A330 went missing in the Atlantic the night of June 1 2009. None of us were there, and those of you making it sound as simple as pushing the nose down to execute a stall recovery are acting pretty irrational. When the old lizard brain tells you you're gonna die, people tend to act irrationally and make poor decisions and falling suddenly towards the ocean in the middle of the night in exteme weather qualifies as an "Oh crap" moment.
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I think there is authoritative support for your position.


Aviation Medicine - "C. B. “Sully” Sullenberger, the celebrated US Airways pilot, famous for his successful ditching of an Airbus 330 in Hudson river, observed that, “”The Air France 447 crash was a seminal accident. We need to look at it from a systems approach, a human/technology system that has to work together. This involves aircraft design and certification, training and human factors. If you look at the human factors alone, then you’re missing half or two-thirds of the total system failure”.

http://www.avmed.in/2011/08/loss-of-...ce-flight-477/ (Human Factors - Some 447 facts)
 
The more I read about this, the more I think that if anyone screwed up, it was almost entirely the right-seat F/O. The cruise Captain F/O seemed to understand what was going on initially, but may have been confused by the F/O's control inputs while he (the cruise captain) was at least nominally in control.

Boilerplate: Pure, unadulterated speculation, and meant to be taken as such.
 
Qutch said:
You're correct. . I did not answer the question. . It's not really a question. . Just gibberish.


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Originally Posted by Gonzo

The point I(and it seems seagull) am trying to make is the pilots of AF447 could have been the greatest stick and rudder pilots in the world and it wouldn't have saved them without understanding how to us the skills they had.

"how to us the skills they had" ??????
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All your skills are belong to us!
 
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