Alaska opens new SAN pilot base

BobDDuck said:
If the negotiations were under Section 6, that would be considered a job action... don't do that.

With a JCBA process, neither party is under status quo rules, so technically you could (legally) reduce the amount of open time pilots are flying to get some kind of leverage on the company, but in theory during a merger, the conpany wants to get it done way more than the pilots do, so no additional leverage is needed.

Edit to add... I've already stated my opinion on allowances for whoring vs staffing pushes within a contract, and regrettably where the pilot group preference has been moving for the past 10 years.
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“Regrettably” let’s look at how housing costs have moved in the past 10 yrs. I don’t know when you bought your house in Hawaii, but if it was prior to 2020, musta been nice! What mortgage rate did you refinance at in the 2-3% era?

College/University costs in the last 25 yrs.

Or literally anything else cost-wise.



Like other legacy airlines, I’d vote for 200% year around. In fact, I’d vote for that crazy 300% I hear at some places.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
FO buddy was showing me 200% trips are being offered in CA to SEA FOs. In January lol.

My guess is we are close to a contract that will have unlimited 200%. So the company is just limping the staffing model until it’s all yes votes for a staffing model that doesn’t allow for our careers to progress.

I kept hearing about this massive wave of retirements that would be so good for my career for the last god knows how many years. Now it’s hiring 47% of those who retire because the staffing model is propped up by guys flying 120 hrs a month of straight open time with DH built in and a select few that can snag premium. We are our own worst enemies.

What happened to not picking up during negotiations?
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Does emergency 911 ever get sick of dispatching the waaambulance to your home?

No one owes you anything. And be careful implying any illegal job action.

As for your assertion that we are only hiring a 47% replacement because of guys doing 120 hrs credit, show your math. I’d like to see how you access what pilots are flying 120 credit versus the total pilot group. And how that data correlates to a 47% hiring number. You made the assertion, now back it up with data.
 
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Cherokee_Cruiser said:
Does emergency 911 ever get sick of dispatching the waaambulance to your home?

No one owes you anything. And be careful implying any illegal job action.

As for your assertion that we are only hiring a 47% replacement because of guys doing 120 hrs credit, show your math. I’d like to see how you access what pilots are flying 120 credit versus the total pilot group. And how that data correlates to a 47% hiring number. You made the assertion, now back it up with data.
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I got massive pushback here when I mentioned we were overstaffed and going go downgrade in 2024.

So if we aren’t overstaffed why else would the company only hire 58 pilots when 128 retired or were fired? (47% replacement rate)
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
I got massive pushback here when I mentioned we were overstaffed and going go downgrade in 2024.

So if we aren’t overstaffed why else would the company only hire 58 pilots when 128 retired or were fired? (47% replacement rate)
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Because of the door blowout. We were staffed assuming deliveries would continue. I don’t recall saying you’d downgrade, but I have admit we were overstaffed. Still are in some bases/seats. Hence the IL and VRBOs.

Overstaffed, yes. Downgrades, no. Until this SAN bid.


At least be glad they’re opening SAN. That original base opening email on a Dec 1 said that right sizing was coming with or without SAN. Imagine cutting 25% of SFO and 25% of LAX with openings only in ANC, SEA, and PDX. Then you’d absolutely be getting downgraded. SAN just saved you. Or at least, maximized your chance of keeping your seat in SEA.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
Because of the door blowout. We were staffed assuming deliveries would continue. I don’t recall saying you’d downgrade, but I have admit we were overstaffed. Still are in some bases/seats. Hence the IL and VRBOs.

Overstaffed, yes. Downgrades, no. Until this SAN bid.


At least be glad they’re opening SAN. That original base opening email on a Dec 1 said that right sizing was coming with or without SAN. Imagine cutting 25% of SFO and 25% of LAX with openings only in ANC, SEA, and PDX. Then you’d absolutely be getting downgraded. SAN just saved you. Or at least, maximized your chance of keeping your seat in SEA.
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This is my third reduction bid since 2024. Management has been saber rattling about downgrades since 2024 as well. I said I’d be forced back to FO in 2024 by 2026. Here we are…

SWA, UAL and dozens of others are taking deliveries of MAX aircraft daily. Sure there was a period where the aircraft was grounded, there was a strike and where the FAA was limiting production output. Those days are over. SWA just took delivery of their 300th MAX.

Our management are making clear choices. Profitability through shrinking. It’s obvious to me the MAX 10 is a replacement aircraft for the Airbus. Our pilot group will continue to stagnate and move backwards. If you enjoy your seat and percentage in base you’re lucky because I don’t see that changing for many years to come.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
This is my third reduction bid since 2024. Management has been saber rattling about downgrades since 2024 as well. I said I’d be forced back to FO in 2024 by 2026. Here we are…

SWA, UAL and dozens of others are taking deliveries of MAX aircraft daily. Sure there was a period where the aircraft was grounded, there was a strike and where the FAA was limiting production output. Those days are over. SWA just took delivery of their 300th MAX.

Our management are making clear choices. Profitability through shrinking. It’s obvious to me the MAX 10 is a replacement aircraft for the Airbus. Our pilot group will continue to stagnate and move backwards. If you enjoy your seat and percentage in base you’re lucky because I don’t see that changing for many years to come.
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You don’t know if you’re downgrading. It’s just a guess at this point. If you’re putting all 6 bases as CA your chances increase to stay CA.

As for the rest, this is my third merger and I don’t expect it to be much different. YES the airline gets right sized. Based close. Based open. Yes there’s a period of slowness too.

I’ll let the fleet number gurus comment on this, but I believe we have basically taken every MAX9 and MAX8 order as of Dec 2026. Our entire future now depends on the MAX10. Good news is, the last hurdle is complete for the A-ICE. So it’s coming, just a question of when. Just a guess but certification late 2026 and deliveries first half 2027.

And yes good guess the A321 is gone. It’s nonsense they are studying the plane and its economics. They said the same for VX. In the end, it’s far cheaper to just run one single fleet for NB, especially when you can get 1.8 MAX for the price of 1 321NEO.

But we are not shrinking in the traditional sense. It’s a post merger re-alignment.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
“Regrettably” let’s look at how housing costs have moved in the past 10 yrs. I don’t know when you bought your house in Hawaii, but if it was prior to 2020, musta been nice! What mortgage rate did you refinance at in the 2-3% era?

College/University costs in the last 25 yrs.

Or literally anything else cost-wise.



Like other legacy airlines, I’d vote for 200% year around. In fact, I’d vote for that crazy 300% I hear at some places.
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Because you aren’t very smart.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
You don’t know if you’re downgrading. It’s just a guess at this point. If you’re putting all 6 bases as CA your chances increase to stay CA.

As for the rest, this is my third merger and I don’t expect it to be much different. YES the airline gets right sized. Based close. Based open. Yes there’s a period of slowness too.

I’ll let the fleet number gurus comment on this, but I believe we have basically taken every MAX9 and MAX8 order as of Dec 2026. Our entire future now depends on the MAX10. Good news is, the last hurdle is complete for the A-ICE. So it’s coming, just a question of when. Just a guess but certification late 2026 and deliveries first half 2027.

And yes good guess the A321 is gone. It’s nonsense they are studying the plane and its economics. They said the same for VX. In the end, it’s far cheaper to just run one single fleet for NB, especially when you can get 1.8 MAX for the price of 1 321NEO.

But we are not shrinking in the traditional sense. It’s a post merger re-alignment.
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We’ll find out in the next few days. I’d put my chances of remaining a captain through the next two bids at less than 50%. Even less after the SLI and following reduction bid which will flush a lot of AS pilots out of their bases. When Airbi are parked it will only create more downward churn. We will probably be a 3500-4000 pilot group in 5 years with a less than 50% replacement of retiring pilots.
 
BobDDuck said:
You're forgetting that in those same 10 years your payrates have gone up 57% from $216 to $375.

Nobody needs to be crediting 120 hours a month to maintain what they had (or would have once they topped out) 10 years ago.
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But in California….

I kid
 
Skåning said:
Lucky for you you're wrong 100% of the time
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Wrong about deliveries? Nope. Growth? Nope. Hiring? We hired 40 pilots when I said there be none. It’s still less than 1/2 of attrition which honors my thesis that this airline will never grow and will only continue to: shrink to profitability, acquire another airline, then shrink to profitability again.

You’re just making stuff up. Like when I apparently said who I voted for. Which I never would.

We are now in the severely overstaffed stage of shrink to profitability. Similar to 2017-2018. We have to park all the Airbus to grow again. Except we acquired more pilots to stagnate for 3-5 years this time.
 
BobDDuck said:
You're forgetting that in those same 10 years your payrates have gone up 57% from $216 to $375.

Nobody needs to be crediting 120 hours a month to maintain what they had (or would have once they topped out) 10 years ago.
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I see it as making up for the 2007-2012 timeframe. I also see it as making hay while the sun shines.
 
BEEF SUPREME said:
We’ll find out in the next few days. I’d put my chances of remaining a captain through the next two bids at less than 50%. Even less after the SLI and following reduction bid which will flush a lot of AS pilots out of their bases. When Airbi are parked it will only create more downward churn. We will probably be a 3500-4000 pilot group in 5 years with a less than 50% replacement of retiring pilots.
Click to expand...


The MAX10 deliveries will help offset the 321/717 parking for when that happens.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
I see it as making up for the 2007-2012 timeframe. I also see it as making hay while the sun shines.
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Wait... the 2007 through 2012 timeframe where you worked for a low paying regional that was able to offer crap wages because people were dumping thousands and thousands of dollars to attend places like JetU in the hopes of getting an interview?

Also... way to move the goalposts. What happened to your "it's the inflation lolz!" position?
 
BobDDuck said:
Wait... the 2007 through 2012 timeframe where you worked for a low paying regional that was able to offer crap wages because people were dumping thousands and thousands of dollars to attend places like JetU in the hopes of getting an interview?

Also... way to move the goalposts. What happened to your "it's the inflation lolz!" position?
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You forgot to mention off the street mins were 600 TT and 50 ME at places like Mesaba. So only sorta, kinda, not really.

Regardless, I know you lived it too. Except IIRC you got to ride the 2007-2012 time as a RJ Capt making more.

And yes inflation. Really, monetary policies for decades that caught up to us all.
 
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