Hmm, last time I checked a LOT of pilots magically appeared. Remember Skybus, ATA, Aloha etc. I'm sure we'll be adding more pilots to that list too before this down swing hits bottom.
That's BS. They didn't "magically" appear. They've been there. You aren't worried about jobs overall, you're worried about YOUR specific company.
When it comes down to it, if the planes go to mainline, the same number of pilots will need to be employed (actually more, as was already pointed out due to their better work rules). So the pay goes up, the number of pilots required goes up. So the number of pilots unemployed goes down. The capacity those furloughed pilots covered will rebound, so jobs will be there. When blocks of pilots are furloughed, there's a rebound period, but it happens. And this was not a large number of pilots furloughed. Some were, but it's not like there are 10,000 pilots out of work right now.
I understand how it is good for the industry. More mainline jobs....just so you can be furloughed in 5 years because the attrition rate is minimal right? And then hope to get a J4J job with a company flying something other than a prop while you await recall, because you're a "Mainline" pilot, God forbid you have to go back to flying anything with props. Those are for boats anyway. I get it I get it.
Attrition will be the same as it is now at mainline carriers. Many retirements. Since attrition at regionals are generally from people moving into spots at majors, attrition would wash out. Sorry, bad argument there.
My attitude is this. If I can't make the cut at a Major, I would like a place to hang my hat that keeps me in the business. I don't want to be a Regional pilot for life. I would love to land a job at one of a few Legacy carriers. The fact is that this downturn we're seeing is going to have us Regional pilots stuck here for awhile. Especially if these merger-mania's get out of hand.
The truth comes out? If this scope happened, regionals would be forced to go back to a smaller plane. You would make the same amount (there isn't exactly a big pay difference between planes at the regionals) and still have a job. You just want the best of both. Guess what, why should there be a mainline job for you to fly almost the same airplane at 5 times the pay if you're willing to fly it for 20k a year?
Fortunately, I work for a really good company right now with a different corporate culture. UNfortunately the business here is centered around the very number of seats everyone would like to see back at mainline. Which means no job for us. I've been making less than $20,000 a year for the last 3 years getting started in this career, I'll be damned if I'm going to go another year on a salary like this. If I lose my job, I'm done. I just can not mentally and financially go through starting at the bottom at another Regional Airline. I would do it for a mainline job because the pay takes a serious jump 2nd year. I'm not the only one who feels that way or is in the same boat.
In today's economy, to be making anything less than $35,000 a year will put you on a low income standard. If mainline scoped out my job and I couldn't jump up with them, I'd be done. I'm crazy for even trying to go through with a career in this industry. At least I'm finally getting some sense to stay attached with the military, because I feel like its not a matter of IF, but WHEN I get furloughed.
Sorry if my attitude seems detrimental to the industry, but anyone would defend their job.
I think you understand that this would result in more jobs. But since you feel your's is "secure" right now you want to keep the status quo. If you get a few pennies ahead, then that's the best thing?
A changeover would be slow, and the majors would need to pick up pilots as they brought those planes online. It'd be a transition, so it's not like every pilot would be out of a job. It'd be high attrition as pilots went from regionals to majors as their planes went away. Then it'd stabilize with remaining smaller aircraft at the regional level (Q400s?) This should amount to a reset to a situation like now, with pilots entering regionals and transitioning. The difference being a shorter wait to the majors and a much better shot for YOU to get to one.
