Wow... United and US Airways to Merge

[kellwolf]

You're not thinking long term, man. I'd take a 6 month to a year furlough and go work at Home Depot if it meant an extra 5 years at a mainline carrier. Seriously. And ya know what, my wife backs me on that plan, too.

If you look at mainline staffing contracts, they generally (like Bob said) run more pilots per aircraft than regionals do. Regionals run lean, mean and understaffed. We all know it, that's why we complain so much on reserve. So, if mainline were to take scope back and those 175s went to mainline carriers, it's a net (wait for it) GAIN in jobs. I know at PCL we're staffed 5 crews to each -900 (or supposed to be). At mainline you can figure probably an extra 2-3 crews per plane. They don't want to cancel flights due to understaffing. Just ask NWA how that one works out. So, if they took 10-15 airplanes from a regional carrier, yeah, the regional loses 50-75 crews. But mainline gains spots for 70-120, depending on staffing levels. So, that's an extra 20-60 crews. That's CREWS, so multiply that by two. 40-120 MORE jobs net. So, they'll have to hire that many more people to staff the planes they just acquired. Now, to put that in perspective, we've got about 1400 pilots at PCL spread over 4 hubs. ATL's not that big, so we'll just take 1400/3. That's about 460 pilots in each hub. Divide that by two, and that's how the crews are set up: 230 FOs, 230 CAs. So, by the numbers above, those numbers of jobs at the mainline level equals about HALF the CA seniority list at one of the hubs at Pinnacle.

Don't let all the doom and gloomers fool you. Scope going back to mainline is a GOOD thing. It means more time at a mainline carrier in the long run. Might hurt short term, but if you keep thinking short term in this industry you're gonna be playing catch up the whole time.

 

[meyers9163]

You're not thinking long term, man. I'd take a 6 month to a year furlough and go work at Home Depot if it meant an extra 5 years at a mainline carrier. Seriously. And ya know what, my wife backs me on that plan, too.

If you look at mainline staffing contracts, they generally (like Bob said) run more pilots per aircraft than regionals do. Regionals run lean, mean and understaffed. We all know it, that's why we complain so much on reserve. So, if mainline were to take scope back and those 175s went to mainline carriers, it's a net (wait for it) GAIN in jobs. I know at PCL we're staffed 5 crews to each -900 (or supposed to be). At mainline you can figure probably an extra 2-3 crews per plane. They don't want to cancel flights due to understaffing. Just ask NWA how that one works out. So, if they took 10-15 airplanes from a regional carrier, yeah, the regional loses 50-75 crews. But mainline gains spots for 70-120, depending on staffing levels. So, that's an extra 20-60 crews. That's CREWS, so multiply that by two. 40-120 MORE jobs net. So, they'll have to hire that many more people to staff the planes they just acquired. Now, to put that in perspective, we've got about 1400 pilots at PCL spread over 4 hubs. ATL's not that big, so we'll just take 1400/3. That's about 460 pilots in each hub. Divide that by two, and that's how the crews are set up: 230 FOs, 230 CAs. So, by the numbers above, those numbers of jobs at the mainline level equals about HALF the CA seniority list at one of the hubs at Pinnacle.

Don't let all the doom and gloomers fool you. Scope going back to mainline is a GOOD thing. It means more time at a mainline carrier in the long run. Might hurt short term, but if you keep thinking short term in this industry you're gonna be playing catch up the whole time.

YUP YUP! Well said Steve. Lets hope some of my young fellow FO's and stubborn young regional CA's might pay attention. Matter of fact I think Menards might pay better. Might make a little money if I got furloughed and later hired ! But again well said!

 

[KLB]

These days you could make a really good living as a CFI while waiting to get back into the regionall game if furloughed!

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I think you should start shopping for a new avatar...if this deal happens USAPA is toast.

I look forward to that day.

I am not sure a lot of thought went into USAPA.

:yeahthat: I nominate this for understatement of the year.

What punitive action can United ALPA take in the SLI process. Can they single out USAPA east guys and take care of west? This will be incredibly interesting.

You can bet that they'll be scheming pretty hard to figure out how to best position themselves to screw the East pilots. Remember, this isn't the first time that UAL pilots have been pissed off at AAA pilots. UAL had to get the ALPA Merger Policy changed because AAA pilots were talking about stapling UAL pilots and taking their widebody flying during the last two merger talks in the '90s and '00s. The East guys have been consistently insane when it comes to SLI. I guarantee the UAL pilots will take great joy in pushing as many East pilots to the bottom of the seniority list as possible.

Dave, if the majors "take scope back" where do you think all those pilots that are needed to fill the new planes are going to come from? They are going to be the senior guys on your seniority list. They'll move on and you'll move up. That's how it's supposed to work.

I would seriously love to see Airways knock the scope back down to 70 seats. Hell, I'd like to see it back down to 50 seats. Does that mean that you (and maybe us) and several other companies are going to either have to remove seats or ground planes? Yep. Does it mean you may lose your job? It could. But that's the cost of doing business when you don't own your flying.

:yeahthat::yeahthat::yeahthat::yeahthat::yeahthat::yeahthat::yeahthat:

 

[WestIndian425]

You're not thinking long term, man. I'd take a 6 month to a year furlough and go work at Home Depot if it meant an extra 5 years at a mainline carrier. Seriously. And ya know what, my wife backs me on that plan, too.

If you look at mainline staffing contracts, they generally (like Bob said) run more pilots per aircraft than regionals do. Regionals run lean, mean and understaffed. We all know it, that's why we complain so much on reserve. So, if mainline were to take scope back and those 175s went to mainline carriers, it's a net (wait for it) GAIN in jobs. I know at PCL we're staffed 5 crews to each -900 (or supposed to be). At mainline you can figure probably an extra 2-3 crews per plane. They don't want to cancel flights due to understaffing. Just ask NWA how that one works out. So, if they took 10-15 airplanes from a regional carrier, yeah, the regional loses 50-75 crews. But mainline gains spots for 70-120, depending on staffing levels. So, that's an extra 20-60 crews. That's CREWS, so multiply that by two. 40-120 MORE jobs net. So, they'll have to hire that many more people to staff the planes they just acquired. Now, to put that in perspective, we've got about 1400 pilots at PCL spread over 4 hubs. ATL's not that big, so we'll just take 1400/3. That's about 460 pilots in each hub. Divide that by two, and that's how the crews are set up: 230 FOs, 230 CAs. So, by the numbers above, those numbers of jobs at the mainline level equals about HALF the CA seniority list at one of the hubs at Pinnacle.

Don't let all the doom and gloomers fool you. Scope going back to mainline is a GOOD thing. It means more time at a mainline carrier in the long run. Might hurt short term, but if you keep thinking short term in this industry you're gonna be playing catch up the whole time.

Kell makes an excellent point. I like the backup plan as well. It's also good to have a background other than aviation during your college years.

 

[kellwolf]

Kell makes an excellent point. I like the backup plan as well. It's also good to have a background other than aviation during your college years.

Oh man. I'd rather shovel giraffe poop or feed slender loris than go back to working as a cook at Chili's.

 

[Baradium]

Well thats my point. Is that, yeah it would eventually be a great thing, but the number of pilots and their families affected would be great as well. In a years time, I wouldn't have the time requirements to get hired at mainline. So those of us that are trying to build that time would in turn lose our jobs unless our company brought on smaller airplanes. Which I really wouldn't care. I didn't come here to fly a particular aircraft. If that were the case, I'd of went overseas and flown the big metal for what they are begging for.

If Captains moved up to mainline as FO's, than how would us FO's become Captains on equipment that needs to be sold? This is confusing.

More pilots aren't going to magically appear... if this happened, the mins at majors would drop accordingly to put the pilots in seats.

 

[Baradium]

We're all going to be stuck at a Regional for possibly the next 5 years or more after Merger-mania goes away and the dust settles from a crappy economy. I hope the mainline guys keep us Regional pilots in mind when they are negotiating their "scope". Because if they put the axe to thousands of Regional pilot jobs, than we're all on the street with no where to go. There will be such a huge surplus of pilots on the street that literally thousands of careers will be damaged. It sounds easy to say "Let mainline get their scope back" , but that will be the end to thousands of careers. There wouldn't be enough mainline jobs to bring half of the pilots on the street back to work. It would effect everyone at a Regional. Think about it

I don't understand how a single mainline pilot can be twice as productive while working less. Think about it...

In your case, they'd need more pilots if smaller planes were moved to majors. It'd be the best thing possible for the industry.

Today's large RJs are about the size of a small mainline bird (and smaller than the ones of old). If similiar sized planes were put in place they'd need more pilots than with RJs working 100 hours a month. So your career would be much better.

Sure you'd have to go through a transition, but it's not like suddenly fewer planes would fly...

 

[Maurus]

Well, maybe American will but not Continental.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120933331731448075.html?mod=hps_us_pageone

Abruptly ending talks with United Airlines parent UAL Corp., Continental Airlines Inc. said it would stay independent for the time being despite efforts by rival carriers to merge.

The Houston-based airline didn't disclose details of talks in its statement late Sunday and didn't name potential partners. But its move was seen as a rebuke to Chicago-based UAL, which has been trying to interest Continental in a marriage for years.

UAL had recently entered formal merger talks with Continental, said people familiar with the matter, giving UAL the impression that it had the inside track on striking a deal with one of the U.S. industry's healthiest carriers.

In a bulletin to employees, Continental Chief Executive Officer Larry Kellner said Continental has "significant cultural, operational and financial strengths" that "would be placed at risk in a merger with another carrier in today's environment."

As far as United and US Airways goes, it didn't pass muster the first time, so why do they think it will the second time around? And why would US Airways be so stupid as to try to undertake a new merger when they are nowhere near close to realizing the synergies they thought they'd see from the first one?

I just said that as a response to this merger fad. I never said it actually would happen nor had any information to back it up.

 

[WestIndian425]

Oh man. I'd rather shovel giraffe poop or feed slender loris than go back to working as a cook at Chili's.

:laff::yup::laff::yup:

Well I'm sure CFI'ing could be an option.

 

[Airdale]

More pilots aren't going to magically appear... if this happened, the mins at majors would drop accordingly to put the pilots in seats.

Hmm, last time I checked a LOT of pilots magically appeared. Remember Skybus, ATA, Aloha etc. I'm sure we'll be adding more pilots to that list too before this down swing hits bottom.

Don't let all the doom and gloomers fool you. Scope going back to mainline is a GOOD thing. It means more time at a mainline carrier in the long run. Might hurt short term, but if you keep thinking short term in this industry you're gonna be playing catch up the whole time.

I understand how it is good for the industry. More mainline jobs....just so you can be furloughed in 5 years because the attrition rate is minimal right? And then hope to get a J4J job with a company flying something other than a prop while you await recall, because you're a "Mainline" pilot, God forbid you have to go back to flying anything with props. Those are for boats anyway. I get it I get it.

Still though, what about those folks who don't get hired by the Majors? And who's Regional employer doesn't exsist or reduced capacity so much because of a scope clause? They would have to start all over again at another Regional...OR just go work for a Skybus or JetBlue.

My point is, that mainline pilots SCREWED up when they scoped these airplanes out and they would SCREW UP again if they tried to scope them back in. There is no way they could modify the scope clause without causing major heartache for many across the industry. But I guess as long as it is good for the industry, it doesn't matter how many people get slaughtered along the way. Kind of like the Iraq war.

I see how it adds mainline jobs, but it does nothing more than make the "good ole boys club" a bit larger.

 

[SmitteyB]

They made a mistake, Dale.

If someone came up to you and said, "Hey we'll give you big raises and bigger airplanes if you give us some scope concessions". You'd prob say hell yes!

 

[Airdale]

They made a mistake, Dale.

If someone came up to you and said, "Hey we'll give you big raises and bigger airplanes if you give us some scope concessions". You'd prob say hell yes!

I'm not arguing that fact. To be honest with you, its not like its a huge sin. I mean really, 90% of all pilots only care about themselves, and pulling the ladder up behind them certainly wasn't a bad thing for them. After all, they were offered a good deal and an opportunity to tighten their ranks.

I'm arguing the fact that trying to reverse that mistake, is going to create a mess. They should leave the scope where it is, and focus on their carriers growth, contracts (PAY) and international flying. If Legacy pilots fought to bring back the pay and work rules that once existed, then maybe there would be a lot more of us reaching for that ladder.

 

[mattp1803]

brand X, brand y, brand Z!

YES! I couldn't quite remember his name. Brand X is right! I guess he is back with a new s/n...

 

[BobDDuck]

Dave, I'm not picking on you... but THAT mentality is the single biggest problem the industry faces right now. It isn't USAPA. It isn't Skywest not unionizing. It's not the merger mania. It's guys at the regional level who are willing to fly bigger and bigger planes because they don't want to start over again.

For many people there is nothing wrong with making a career at a regional, as long as you understand the constraints that need to be placed there. But for many people they want the major pay/plane size/quality of life with out having to take any of the risk associated with making the jump. That ain't right.

 

[Airdale]

Dave, I'm not picking on you... but THAT mentality is the single biggest problem the industry faces right now. It isn't USAPA. It isn't Skywest not unionizing. It's not the merger mania. It's guys at the regional level who are willing to fly bigger and bigger planes because they don't want to start over again.

For many people there is nothing wrong with making a career at a regional, as long as you understand the constraints that need to be placed there. But for many people they want the major pay/plane size/quality of life with out having to take any of the risk associated with making the jump. That ain't right.

My attitude is this. If I can't make the cut at a Major, I would like a place to hang my hat that keeps me in the business. I don't want to be a Regional pilot for life. I would love to land a job at one of a few Legacy carriers. The fact is that this downturn we're seeing is going to have us Regional pilots stuck here for awhile. Especially if these merger-mania's get out of hand.

Fortunately, I work for a really good company right now with a different corporate culture. UNfortunately the business here is centered around the very number of seats everyone would like to see back at mainline. Which means no job for us. I've been making less than $20,000 a year for the last 3 years getting started in this career, I'll be damned if I'm going to go another year on a salary like this. If I lose my job, I'm done. I just can not mentally and financially go through starting at the bottom at another Regional Airline. I would do it for a mainline job because the pay takes a serious jump 2nd year. I'm not the only one who feels that way or is in the same boat.

In today's economy, to be making anything less than $35,000 a year will put you on a low income standard. If mainline scoped out my job and I couldn't jump up with them, I'd be done. I'm crazy for even trying to go through with a career in this industry. At least I'm finally getting some sense to stay attached with the military, because I feel like its not a matter of IF, but WHEN I get furloughed.

Sorry if my attitude seems detrimental to the industry, but anyone would defend their job.

 

[meyers9163]

UNfortunately the business here is centered around the very number of seats everyone would like to see back at mainline. Which means no job for us. Sorry if my attitude seems detrimental to the industry, but anyone would defend their job.

I dont think anyone in particular is saying REPUBLIC! We are saying 86 seat AC. Heck in fact I've put my own company in the same sentence as has many in this same convo. We are discussing 70 seaters as well. As already mentioned the old DC's for NWA use to fly at 76 and pay well over 100k..... Anyways we are speaking about an industry as a whole in which if mainline would finally take back their flying and place stiff scopes the industry as a whole would benefit. E175/E170/Crj900/Crj700 were all mentioned in this conversation.

Fact of the matter is when you really thought about getting into this industry did you think YOU would be flying cabin class aircraft at a regional? Did you think that you would be doing two leg days with some flights at the regional level going DEN-PIT (recent Shuttle guys route) or SLC-PIT (SKW was doing it in a 900 finally back to mainline).

I can answer that question and say no... When I first thought about this industry I saw Mesaba flying into Lafayette and going to Detroit and thinking that's what I'd have to do for a while before going to mainline. If I am indeed at a regional for 10 years before I go to mainline that's fine.... Guess what... that means by 33 I'm at a major and have damn near 30 years at a major? Should I cry now or later..... Fact of the matter is too many people think they deserve to be at the top and dont understand you have to work your way up. Therefore we settle with flying large aircraft that do not belong at the level in which they are!

 

[wheelsup]

I just can not mentally and financially go through starting at the bottom at another Regional Airline.

So why do it? Hell you could go fly a piston and make 2x your pay. Reference Airnet. They even have a PHL prop and jet base, probably be easy to get. If you want more stability I'd go for that. If you're not getting what you want out of a regional try something else.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I'mThey should leave the scope where it is

Umm, no thanks. I'm sickened every time I taxi out of ATL. Replacement jets as far as the eye can see. And nothing is worse than seeing a -900 or a -170/-175 parked at the A or B concourses which used to be nothing but DAL mainline. DCI flies more than half of Delta's flying now. Disgusting. Anything DALPA can do to get back scope is a good thing for everyone, including you.

Sorry if my attitude seems detrimental to the industry, but anyone would defend their job.

No they wouldn't. When I worked at Pinnacle, I frequently told the NWA ALPA reps to fight to get back their scope. If that meant the elimination of my job in the short term, then so be it. Outsourcing is bad, mmm-kay?

 

[kellwolf]

I'm not arguing that fact. To be honest with you, its not like its a huge sin. I mean really, 90% of all pilots only care about themselves, and pulling the ladder up behind them certainly wasn't a bad thing for them. After all, they were offered a good deal and an opportunity to tighten their ranks.

I'm arguing the fact that trying to reverse that mistake, is going to create a mess. They should leave the scope where it is, and focus on their carriers growth, contracts (PAY) and international flying. If Legacy pilots fought to bring back the pay and work rules that once existed, then maybe there would be a lot more of us reaching for that ladder.

You sure you're not arguing for the scope to stay where it is b/c you might not make the cut at a major and not get to fly your current ride anymore? Sorry, man. I'm not buying this "I know it's good for the industry but I don't think it should be done" BS. If it means a better shot at getting a mainline job, I say do it. If that means I'm on the street for a bit, fine. From the tone of your posts it sounds like that now that you've found a good thing, you don't want to lose it. I wonder if your tune would be different if you were still at Colgan.....