The math for quitting FedEx to go to United

[BEEF SUPREME]

Tolerated? Not like we had a choice. No one was hiring. And everyone said get 121 time to get competitive.


Tell terrorists to stop terroristing, and tell Americans to stop being such greedy effs that led to the 2008-10 GFC, and not allow age 65, that might have made a difference.

Those were just a catalyst. The real reason for all the pain and misery was a massive over capacity of seats. All of the pain and misery of that overcapacity was coming it was just brought on in seemingly the worst way possible. In the form of 9/11, age 65, 2008 etc.

What we all need to learn, understand and then take maximum advantage of is there is a under capacity of seats AND an under supply of pilots. It means that if we all work together, we can claw back what was lost during the lost decade. It is super important that we are not fearful of external issues such as a recession etc. The pilots supply and growing capacity of aircraft seats is all we need to be concerned about.

 

[Beefy McGee]

It really isn’t some huge downturn as much as it is a “regression to the mean.” FedEx massively over-hired during and after COVID. I guess they figured having peak-level volumes every month was going to last forever and (over)-hired to keep up. As the world started opening up again, freight volumes dropped accordingly.

Another huge key to this is the fact that vulture-capitalist firm DE Shaw purchased an enormous amount of FedEx stock…enough to get 2 seats on the board. The new FedEx CEO doesn’t give two craps about the company or what Fred Smith built. His sole job is asset strip, make the operation as lean as possible to boost short-term shareholder profit. Once DE Shaw is happy enough, they’ll probably sell and leave a future management team to clean up what’s left.

It’s sad.

Similar to Carl Icahn and TWA

 

[Maurus]

As long as you think D vs R, we’ll never fix anything.

Don't have a choice while the electoral college exists.

 

[roundout]

It is super important that we are not fearful of external issues such as a recession

I’m actually • terrified of this but I’m leaving the comfort of my left seat ULCC job anyway.

YOLO

 

[BobDDuck]

The real reason for all the pain and misery was a massive over capacity of seats. All of the pain and misery of that overcapacity was coming it was just brought on in seemingly the worst way possible. In the form of 9/11, age 65, 2008 etc.

I agree that all that pain was coming either way, but it wasn't simply a capacity issue. The airfare structure (and company cost structure) allowed a place to be profitable on 60% load factors. LCCs (and a cooling economy) killed that. Mergers and some of the former big players going away has helped some (hence where we are today) but the underlying issue is still there.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

I’m actually • terrified of this but I’m leaving the comfort of my left seat ULCC job anyway.

YOLO

Though, it's also noteworthy that 1) it's a really f-cked up thing to do to root against the American economy, and 2) most of the recession drumbeat seems to be coming from people who need to put down the Newsmax and pick up, say, PBS or something.

Sure, a lot of the underlying problems and fundamentals haven't changed, but consensus forecasts despite sentiment seem to be okay.

 

[phill1174]

Though, it's also noteworthy that 1) it's a really f-cked up thing to do to root against the American economy, and 2) most of the recession drumbeat seems to be coming from people who need to put down the Newsmax and pick up, say, PBS or something.

Sure, a lot of the underlying problems and fundamentals haven't changed, but consensus forecasts despite sentiment seem to be okay.

This! I’ve been listening to the same drivel for the past 2yrs and unfortunately it’s played in some of my decision making. I guess some folks think if you say something long enough it’ll become true.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

I mean, it’s not an exact science. Printing money and post pandemic consumer behavior is just wild.

The Fed Is Playing a Waiting Game to Try to Avoid a Recession

An increasing number of economists — including the Federal Reserve’s own staff — are predicting the US will escape a recession, though it’ll be well into 2024 before anyone can be sure of it.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[roundout]

This! I’ve been listening to the same drivel for the past 2yrs and unfortunately it’s played in some of my decision making. I guess some folks think if you say something long enough it’ll become true.

Yep! Not living in fear. YOLO.

 

[Roger Roger]

This! I’ve been listening to the same drivel for the past 2yrs and unfortunately it’s played in some of my decision making. I guess some folks think if you say something long enough it’ll become true.

Just like 8 years of Obama “iTs So HaRd In ThIs SocIalIsT eCoNoMy” “but that doesn’t include the ones who quit looking for a job!!!!1111”

 

[Skåning]

Just like 8 years of Obama “iTs So HaRd In ThIs SocIalIsT eCoNoMy” “but that doesn’t include the ones who quit looking for a job!!!!1111”

Nobody wants to work anymore!!!!!

View: https://youtube.com/shorts/DUHpL-Ytlhs?feature=share

 

[podrick]

Late to the party but just throwing it out there that some regionals furloughed new hires during Covid, and 2 went out of business..

Certainly nowhere near the lost decade, and no doubt all affected probably had a pretty soft landing in the end. Just pointing out that the “this generation couldn’t handle a furlough” argument isn’t accurate.

Kind of similar to when discussing recessions and 2008, furloughs will happen in the future, just hopefully not as severe. Point being you might be waiting awhile for the new generation to “earn their keep” if the lost decade is the standard you’re holding them to.

 

[Pilot Fighter]

Don't have a choice while the electoral college exists.

So you would rather have a parliamentary system with three or more parties?

 

[BobDDuck]

Late to the party but just throwing it out there that some regionals furloughed new hires during Covid, and 2 went out of business..

Certainly nowhere near the lost decade, and no doubt all affected probably had a pretty soft landing in the end. Just pointing out that the “this generation couldn’t handle a furlough” argument isn’t accurate.

Kind of similar to when discussing recessions and 2008, furloughs will happen in the future, just hopefully not as severe. Point being you might be waiting awhile for the new generation to “earn their keep” if the lost decade is the standard you’re holding them to.

While there were guys furloughed (we dumped 67 I think), it was incredibly short lived, and within a month or so they were getting paychecks due to PSP... and many of those guys were going NUTS, demanding that senior pilots take cuts to keep them around. It was nothing compared to the drama and depression of 2002 and 2008.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Late to the party but just throwing it out there that some regionals furloughed new hires during Covid, and 2 went out of business..

Certainly nowhere near the lost decade, and no doubt all affected probably had a pretty soft landing in the end. Just pointing out that the “this generation couldn’t handle a furlough” argument isn’t accurate.

Kind of similar to when discussing recessions and 2008, furloughs will happen in the future, just hopefully not as severe. Point being you might be waiting awhile for the new generation to “earn their keep” if the lost decade is the standard you’re holding them to.

It was more than 2 regionals. Flew with a couple guys who lost their flying jobs at various shops in the state of Alaska when Covid hit.

As for the two regionals. The writing for them had been on the wall (especially Compass).

Still, these aren’t even close to the lost decade behavior. They were all picked up (if they wanted to) within months at other places.

 

[podrick]

It was nothing compared to the drama and depression of 2002 and 2008.

Still, these aren’t even close to the lost decade behavior.

Did you two even read my post? My lord..

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Did you two even read my post? My lord..

I did. I think the point still stands. Loans, bailouts, and especially PSP made it a non-event.

 

[podrick]

I did. I think the point still stands. Loans, bailouts, and especially PSP made it a non-event.

Ah, so those weren’t real furloughs and those weren’t real layoffs. Which brings us full circle to what I said in my post, you’re proving my point.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Ah, so those weren’t real furloughs and those weren’t real layoffs. Which brings us full circle to what I said in my post, you’re proving my point.

Not like the ones mentioned post 9/11 and the 2008 GFC. These 2020 ones were barely anything. It is NOT the same thing. Most of these guys were in far better positions barely 3-6 months later.

 

[ClearedForOption]

While there were guys furloughed (we dumped 67 I think), it was incredibly short lived, and within a month or so they were getting paychecks due to PSP... and many of those guys were going NUTS, demanding that senior pilots take cuts to keep them around. It was nothing compared to the drama and depression of 2002 and 2008.

I remember... it must have been sometime in '08ish... I was on the UAL bus in ORD, just slogging it to the F-trash gates for some 30 leg trip and a UAL FO decided that it was the appropriate time to rant/yell at me that it's because of "people like me" that he's being furloughed a 2nd time. It was a very surreal experience as my career trajectory wasn't stellar. (1 Furlough/1 Bankruptsy, & 1 airline that went out of business at that point...) I'm sure that I had a pretty dumb look on my face that said, "Dude, what the heck, I'm just trying to go to work."