Oh Alaska(n)

SurferLucas said:
So far today (Saturday), I've had a few AS pilots I know reach out to talk about my new shop and helping them get here. Last week, I had 2 that I'd trained at QX get hired, one was still at QX the other was at AS.

I'm guessing the bloodbath is well into happening.
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I think the bloodbath that CC was referring to was pilots getting downgraded or pushed out of base when SFO closes.

The one you are talking about is well underway. With the reductions in lines having many JR captains back on reserve, senior FOs downgraded, FOs like me barely able to avoid red eyes with 13 day off lines, FOs jr to me back into red eyes and reserve... I think we will have a lot more leaving.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
I will apologize, because I was only looking at this bid and had heard guys talking about how they got an upgrade on this bid but only to be it taken away in the reduction on this same bid, which they considered a downgrade. This is not a downgrade when it happens in the same bid when vacancies are processed first, and reductions are processed second.

But I see now, comparing the May bid to the Oct bid, there were a few people holding CAs in that bid that now subsequently aren't holding it in October. That is a legit downgrade. Even if they didn't start training, they still get paid CA effective tomorrow and then effective Oct 1 will be paid as FO. It seems like the junior CA plug went from a 11/2017 to a 10/2017 hire. Unfortunately going forward, you are going to see more of this. As long as there are Airbus reductions, it will change the most bottom barrel junior CA spot.

The October '21 and May '22 bids were pure additions only with vacancies and no reductions (very large, IIRC about 100+ CAs on each bid) so they created an artificially (historically) low upgrade time that went to end of 2017 hire. This bid had Airbus reductions, and the next two bids are going to close out SFO Airbus in its entirety, so the bottom barrel CA plug is going to change and probably get more senior. The only "fix" is to create way more vacancies than reductions.

Of course, that remains to be seen. I'll tell you right now they better the SFO Boeing base because IF they don't, you are going to see the biggest bidding bloodbath in Alaska's history. I remain cautiously optimistic they open the SFO Boeing base.
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So when do all those new 737 MAX's start hitting the line. To replace the outgoing 320's?
 
Maximilian_Jenius said:
So when do all those new 737 MAX's start hitting the line. To replace the outgoing 320's?
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It was planned as a 1:1 replacement

Called growth because of the increase in seat numbers.

Because the Airbus were yanked faster than the plan it will likely turn out to be a reduction in airframes and seats.

The MAX 10 debacle means this dynamic could get even worse


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ShortField said:
It says a lot that people would rather bail to the bottom of Delta than wait around for an upgrade that’s already been awarded here.
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Partially.

When 2017 hires are holding upgrade here, walking away from 4-5 yrs isn’t as big a deal. Starting over is a function of age and seniority.
 
Maximilian_Jenius said:
So when do all those new 737 MAX's start hitting the line. To replace the outgoing 320's?
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MAX’s are coming but now it sounds like they want to accelerate parking of A320s.

My wager is the Buses all leave far before the 500 pilots are trained to the Boeing. Airbus guys gonna be on extended vacations getting 85 hrs/month sitting home while they wait for their eventual Boeing class. The Buses are done for.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
MAX’s are coming but now it sounds like they want to accelerate parking of A320s.

My wager is the Buses all leave far before the 500 pilots are trained to the Boeing. Airbus guys gonna be on extended vacations getting 85 hrs/month sitting home while they wait for their eventual Boeing class. The Buses are done for.
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Where are the Buses all going?
 
Leaving AS is a function of age and seniority. With 2017 CAs at AS, leaving 4-5 yrs is not as big a deal.

Good luck at Delta. They have hired half their pilot group since Jan 2014, and the avg age of these new hires was 37. If you’re older than 37 and leaving AS for DL, you’re not gonna break the top 2-3k. Delta has already hired their last A350 Capt for the rest of your career. You’ll never hold the top paying position at Delta. They also have the least widebodies of the big 3, but hey, you have a SEA base.
 
Who honestly cares about A350 flying? ATL or LAX based, flying ULH (maybe some SA or CDG/AMS)...no thanks. You can hold SEA A330A with that age/senority however, and I don't see AS having any of those (or the payscale).

However, flying a 737 on equal routes, DL will pay you more, won't shrink at the first sign of trouble and you don't have to endure the endless STUPID commercials/slogans/etc.

At AS, you'll never hold the top paying position of any airline, period.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
Leaving AS is a function of age and seniority. With 2017 CAs at AS, leaving 4-5 yrs is not as big a deal.

Good luck at Delta. They have hired half their pilot group since Jan 2014, and the avg age of these new hires was 37. If you’re older than 37 and leaving AS for DL, you’re not gonna break the top 2-3k. Delta has already hired their last A350 Capt for the rest of your career. You’ll never hold the top paying position at Delta. They also have the least widebodies of the big 3, but hey, you have a SEA base.
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You seem to be taking people voting with their feet somewhat personally. I could be wrong. But that's what it seems.
 
SurferLucas said:
Who honestly cares about A350 flying? ATL or LAX based, flying ULH (maybe some SA or CDG/AMS)...no thanks. You can hold SEA A330A with that age/senority however, and I don't see AS having any of those (or the payscale).

However, flying a 737 on equal routes, DL will pay you more, won't shrink at the first sign of trouble and you don't have to endure the endless STUPID commercials/slogans/etc.

At AS, you'll never hold the top paying position of any airline, period.
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What do you mean who cares? You have to look at the highest paying equipment in your math. And the math says if you're above 37 (and the average age of those leaving AS are 37, which means half are above that age), then you will be forever behind younger guys who will retire after you. If your goal is fly an A220 and 737 out of SEA and then one day A330, then have at it.



In April I physically flew only 12 days, credit 127.7 hrs. I did alright. I have learned some good techniques/tricks and I use everything I can even in this crappy contract to my advantage.

January I was 117.1 credit
Feb was 93.3
March was 96.3
None of those months did I physically fly more than 16 days.
May, 16 days of flying, 15 off, 97:40 credit.


I've said it before, I don't mind saying it again... I think America is headed for a world of hurt by this time next year, or by end of next year. It won't be pretty. Maybe your risk assessment is different. Personally, I wouldn't give up 5+ yrs seniority right now to go sit at the bottom of a 13,000+ group. The bailouts came for Covid. I don't think bailouts will come for next year's recession.
 
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